CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, snowNH said: Dendrite, we keep ending up in the bullseye run after run.. is this too good to be true??? Are you scared of a shift north and stuck with pellets or south and stuck with less precip???? I'm close to locking in 16-24" possibly more if the first thump trends heavier I would have sexual intercourse with the 00z NAM FYI Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:32 AM, weathafella said: But it is colder for your foecast area vs 12Z. Kevin would be mainly snow at least so far as we've seen out to 63 hours... Yeah a touch colder than 12z. kevin is pinging by 63 hours though. Warmer above 850mb... particularly at 775mb or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, CT Rain said: Yeah, but how many in this thread locked in the 18z NAM as definitely the best solution!!! It made the most sense! I don't think Kevin was actually serious about it being right or starting an extreme trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:26 AM, weathafella said: You will get 3-6 that day. Gerry, you think the South Coast and Cape are good for 3-6 on Tuesday? This is about our only chance with this system before we torch with the main event. As long as we don't go above 40 flooding won't be a big problem...but any where east of Newport even if it does flooding won't be a huge concern along the extreme S. Coast to the Cape because the snow cover isn't that deep to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, BDR said: Still looks like snow for us north of 84 though, right? no sleet maybe an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big signal folks. H85 0C line plunges south in CT 63 to 66 hours. Verbatim Kevin may be all snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, CT Rain said: Yeah, but how many in this thread locked in the 18z NAM as definitely the best solution!!! It made the most sense! One weenie on Mt Tolland did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, snowNH said: Dendrite, we keep ending up in the bullseye run after run.. is this too good to be true??? Are you scared of a shift north and stuck with pellets or south and stuck with less precip???? I'm close to locking in 16-24" possibly more if the first thump trends heavier I would have sexual intercourse with the 00z NAM FYI Seriously...everyone has just said it trended colder...and tmi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:34 AM, weathafella said: Big signal folks. H85 0C line plunges south in CT 63 to 66 hours. Verbatim Kevin may be all snow this run. yeah does crash south. Kevin is definitely pinging though for most of it... warmer above 850. Mass Pike looks good though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have no words watching this NAM run come in. No words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, moneypitmike said: Well, "keeps it going" might be a bit of an exaggeration per the qpf output. But, point taken. Do you cry out "QPF! QPF!" when you have nightmares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:34 AM, HarveyLeonardFan said: Gerry, you think the South Coast and Cape are good for 3-6 on Tuesday? This is about our only chance with this system before we torch with the main event. As long as we don't go above 40 flooding won't be a big problem...but any where east of Newport even if it does flooding won't be a huge concern along the extreme S. Coast to the Cape because the snow cover isn't that deep to begin with. I don't think Cape/S Coast can get that but 2-4 is certainly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:34 AM, CoastalWx said: Shocker. I saw a talk show once where some crazy girl married the Eiffel Tower. No lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, dendrite said: 66-72 is going to crush. A lot of folks up this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 850 WF hangs near Pike. That's a good thing because you never want that north of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:34 AM, CT Rain said: no sleet maybe an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, dendrite said: 66-72 is going to crush. In the killzone on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:32 AM, weathafella said: But it is colder for your foecast area vs 12Z. Kevin would be mainly snow at least so far as we've seen out to 63 hours... Yep, Ryan man IDK what you are looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:36 AM, dendrite said: I saw a talk show once where some crazy girl married the Eiffel Tower. No lie. Is it I, or are the ratios going to be good up here? Locking in the colder solution upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is unreal...flakes in the air from noon Tuesday and onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:34 AM, weathafella said: Big signal folks. H85 0C line plunges south in CT 63 to 66 hours. Verbatim Kevin may be all snow this run. I think you and Ryan better have a tete-a-tete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:31 AM, CT Rain said: LOL at 63 hours the 00z NAM is like +6c warmer in HFD than the 18z run. What a disaster model the NAM is. About +4c warmer at BOS Pretty cold though, compared to 12z.. looks like mostly if not all snow in boston, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, CT Rain said: Yeah, but how many in this thread locked in the 18z NAM as definitely the best solution!!! It made the most sense! only the 's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:36 AM, Ginx said: Yep, Ryan man IDK what you are looking at dude... its between 4c and 6c warmer at 850mb than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:33 AM, CoastalWx said: The NAM tries to get the 850 WF going in se NY state, at hr 63. Hopefully it doesn't charge ne too much. This will be very interesting to see unfold, normally in the spring time we see the models too aggressive with the northward advancement of the warm front, although mainly more the sfc warm front, but it will be interesting to see if this is a case where it tries to be too aggressive with the northward progression of it. Were dealing with a pretty potent LLJ though which is certainly going to help it excel as much as possible. I think Ryan said this earlier but this could end up really being such an overrunning situation that we (down here in CT at least) see more in the way of sleet than anything else with round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Definitely no point in comparing to the 18z NAM. Colder than the 12z, with redevelopment east occurring a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:36 AM, CoastalWx said: 850 WF hangs near Pike. That's a good thing because you never want that north of you. We look pretty good this run. 69 hours we're getting very heavy snow. H85 line down to the S coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Guys....especially newer posters....keep the IMBY (in my backyard) questions out of the thread. Read the analysis and use common sense to extrapolate. The last thing we need is IMBY questions cluttering up a thread that is already moving at a lightning fast pace. Asking multiple IMBY questions is a nice way to get restricted posting abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:37 AM, mattb65 said: Pretty cold though, compared to 12z.. looks like mostly if not all snow in boston, we'll see. Compared to 12z it's colder but this is certainly a close run to 12z than the 18z snow bomb. BOS is pretty close to all snow still on 00z. Most of CT/RI/SE Mass get a lot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 1/31/2011 at 2:35 AM, DomNH said: I have no words watching this NAM run come in. No words. I have two: February 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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