weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And SREFs don't come any further north than that which Scott described during the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CT/MA line to about PVC Ok, that sounds more reasonable....prob see taint to the pike....I buy the SREFs, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Couple of things off the bat: Nam and gfs has differences on s/w coming into us near montana at 0z. Gfs was faster, nam is even slower and more sw this run. 0z ruc and upper air seems to agree with the nam. Second the system in California. Nam had more vorticity on the coast further north. Ruc and ua agree although it's not as strong as the nam modeled earlier. In short two trends in the nam favor not sure how it plays out. If anything slower systems I think leans the nam had some decent ideas but who knows...to me looks like the atypical step back from the off hour over adjustment thru 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Analog: Last week Look for trends in delaying the storm and look for models going too warm along the East Coast. GFS (18Z) 6+. Euro ptype issues d6 big time. We'll see how it shakes out. FWIW from the main thread - last storm as an analog for the D6 threat LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hpc doesn't even have us in a 10% prob. for >4" on wednesday lol THat's because the midnight models are coming out now. they will be digested by them later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFs are sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tons of QPF: There is that empty, white spot right over...hmmmm...Shelburne Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow...that is the warmest point, then. Maybe 20 miles further north (my read was off) but yes...much colder vs prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ok, that sounds more reasonable....prob see taint to the pike....I buy the SREFs, now. No it's S of the Pike now. Trending towards Kevin in the modeling. SREFs trended 40 miles further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFs are sweet. I think they are very close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Push that line south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No it's S of the Pike now. Trending towards Kevin in the modeling. SREFs trended 40 miles further south this run. Jerry, there will be a warm layer above H85.....sleet will make it a bit n of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Congrats and that is sick twister weenie stuff LOL Ray ftw!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think they are very close to reality. In fact, your hood is -4 and the 0 line is well south of me. So I think the taint is not much further north than GHG ...maybe up to Quincy at the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think they are very close to reality. There's almost no spread now in C/N NH with the 850s so those members that pushed sleet to Berlin are gone. I kinda like the idea of getting in on better dendritic growth in the deformation versus getting a 10:1 slaughtering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is looks a bit warmer than 18Z.. @ 24hrs but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Jerry, there will be a warm layer above H85.....sleet will make it a bit n of that line. Yes. But transient. AS stated earlier today, we just don't get hours of sleet in my by. Rain, snow yes, not sleet for hours on end. Pingers at times and maybe even an hour or so, sure. But predominant...highly unusual climo wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Jerry, there will be a warm layer above H85.....sleet will make it a bit n of that line. Sleet will probably taint the picture with that specific model right now but probably only a good 10-15 miles, not 20-30 north of that. I doubt that warm nose can penetrait that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Burbank in his blog says 3-5 tuesday night...and 12 to 18 on wednesday north of the pike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 There's almost no spread now in C/N NH with the 850s so those members that pushed sleet to Berlin are gone. I kinda like the idea of getting in on better dendritic growth in the deformation versus getting a 10:1 slaughtering. We're all happy because I'd rather 10:1 slaughter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Snowing in Philly at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 anyone finding the nws site acting crazy tonight? Maybe their servers crashing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sleet will probably taint the picture with that specific model right now but probably only a good 10-15 miles, not 20-30 north of that. I doubt that warm nose can penetrait that far. Yea, I'd agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Another 50 miles south would be nice. That's all I ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Burbank in his blog says 3-5 tuesday night...and 12 to 18 on wednesday north of the pike... Agreed 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tuesday PM commute will not be pretty... Weds even worse Jerry, what was the worst sleet event you witnessed in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 THat's because the midnight models are coming out now. they will be digested by them later. Still, I didn't even see anything earlier that suggested < 4" for school at Storrs and especially home in the NW hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Snow flying NE tomorrow night. Up to NYC 9Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We're all happy because I'd rather 10:1 slaughter. And I like my snow nice and fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And I like my snow nice and fluffy. So it can melt right when the sun hits it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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