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LV/Reading/NEPA/Poconos/NWNJ obs and banter PT 2


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Hey Jim. what do you guys have up there as far as accumulations? It seems to have snowed all morning there while down here we've been pretty much dry since about 7:30AM.

I would say three to four inches. Wyoming Ave in Kingston is still a mess. there was an ax on the cross valley around 1030. A 4 car ax on the scranton carbondale highway, and numerous wrecks on the scanner on the turnpike.

Its a mess out there, pretty much stopped for now and its cold.

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Just looking at the 12Z NAM and GFS and fwiw(pretty good for generalized lately)the Canadian experimental,my take is this; 2nd shot is gonna be moving so fast and then w/the transfer, imho we're looking at a 6/8 hour period of heavier precip....it's possible up here we might even get some snow(most likely above I-80) at the onset,more likely sleet below...even if it's all Freezing Rain it doesn't look like a tree breaking,power line downing amount...I may be jaded a bit because we get these to often and to me, I don't worry until it's an ice accrual of >.5...definitely woudn't want to be on the roads tomorrow morning into early afternoon,that's just my take...and btw this Sat. is looking like a nice event for up NEPA,but that's 90 hrs away so,as we know things can and might change...hey,I might be the one with "serious egg on face",but that's sorta what were doing here exchanging ideas and thoughts...

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Just looking at the 12Z NAM and GFS and fwiw(pretty good for generalized lately)the Canadian experimental,my take is this; 2nd shot is gonna be moving so fast and then w/the transfer, imho we're looking at a 6/8 hour period of heavier precip....it's possible up here we might even get some snow(most likely above I-80) at the onset,more likely sleet below...even if it's all Freezing Rain it doesn't look like a tree breaking,power line downing amount...I may be jaded a bit because we get these to often and to me, I don't worry until it's an ice accrual of >.5...definitely woudn't want to be on the roads tomorrow morning into early afternoon,that's just my take...and btw this Sat. is looking like a nice event for up NEPA,but that's 90 hrs away so,as we know things can and might change...hey,I might be the one with "serious egg on face",but that's sorta what were doing here exchanging ideas and thoughts...

Precip after what has already gone through:

NAM:

nam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif

GFS:

gfs_namer_033_precip_p24.gif

>.5 ice is easily possible.

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Yeah, AR I think .5 is possible,probably likely somewhere,but I said greater than .5,or meant to...unfortunately we've been thru: past .5,past.75 past 1" of Ice up here and I'm taking off that experience when it really got bad...the official measurment in 05 was 1" up here,but I measured 1.5 and others more...it was about the .75 to1 inch mark that thing's started to get bad...since that storm PPL has done a fantastic job of cutting back the trees and keeping them back...you're area and down to A-town might not fare as well with that .5 as that will cause branches to break and easier power outages,again imho...

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Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...ICE STORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY ANDA LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WEST AND NORTH OFPHILADELPHIA....LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REFORM INTHE WATERS EAST OF NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLYDEPART FOR THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING.NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-020400-/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110202T2300Z//O.NEW.KPHI.IS.W.0001.110201T1949Z-110202T2300Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY......THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN ICESTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THEWINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.* AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.* PRECIPITATION TYPES: HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SLEET OCCURS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.* ACCUMULATIONS: GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY. IF SLEET OCCURS... GLAZE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS BUT SLEET COULD ACCUMULATE ONE HALF INCH.* TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT THIS STORM.* TIMING: SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PROGRESS WILL INTENSIFY TO FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE WORST OF THE GLAZING SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO DRIZZLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED FROM BREAKING TREE LIMBS AND WIRES WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF GLAZE EXCEEDS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...THIS WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONSWILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLYDISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOUMUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOURVEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILLLIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THATADD TO THE DANGER.&&$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ257 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-021200-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-257 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTCENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. ICE STORM WARNING..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. ICE STORM WARNING.THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ICE IS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHERCONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.$$

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This snippet from MtHolly afd:

NOW FOR THE ICE WARNING AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL CHANCES OF

SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY

INCREASES OVERNIGHT FAR NORTH. THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME SIGHT AS

THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE CHANCES OF THIS

OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS GETS

LESS AND THE HIGHEST IMPACT ICE ZONE MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF THIS

REGION.

Can I assume they mean Lehigh Valley?

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I lived in the LV for 35 years I can't remember any Ice over .5,there was 1 time when I was a kid that my Dad put chains on for 1 that might have been...up here .5 has happened almost 1 a year,some years more...for S. of here IF .75 or more happens,whew...If you're not prepared do it now...I don't expect major problems up here(Pocono's),but I'm still getting prepared,Now!!! Good Luck everyone...

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This snippet from MtHolly afd:

NOW FOR THE ICE WARNING AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL CHANCES OF

SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY

INCREASES OVERNIGHT FAR NORTH. THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME SIGHT AS

THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE CHANCES OF THIS

OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS GETS

LESS AND THE HIGHEST IMPACT ICE ZONE MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF THIS

REGION.

Can I assume they mean Lehigh Valley?

Yes.

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Tonight: Freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet, mainly after 10pm. Low around 21. Northeast wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday: Freezing rain and sleet before 1pm, then a chance of freezing rain between 1pm and 4pm. High near 32. North wind between 6 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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This snippet from MtHolly afd:

NOW FOR THE ICE WARNING AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL CHANCES OF

SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY

INCREASES OVERNIGHT FAR NORTH. THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME SIGHT AS

THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE CHANCES OF THIS

OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS GETS

LESS AND THE HIGHEST IMPACT ICE ZONE MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF THIS

REGION.

Can I assume they mean Lehigh Valley?

That is the one thing I agree may help to spare some areas as they have mentioned. Leigh Valley and west central NJ north of TTN may be the hardest hit with regard to ice accumulations.

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I lived in the LV for 35 years I can't remember any Ice over .5,there was 1 time when I was a kid that my Dad put chains on for 1 that might have been...up here .5 has happened almost 1 a year,some years more...for S. of here IF .75 or more happens,whew...If you're not prepared do it now...I don't expect major problems up here(Pocono's),but I'm still getting prepared,Now!!! Good Luck everyone...

1993-94, we had bad ice but nothing like is coming our way. For once I am not wishing we were in the jackpot zone but sure looks like it from the forecast. I see a run on chainsaws, generators, kerosene heaters, battery lamps and flashlights at home depot on Thursday. This thread s going to fill up with reports of power outages, trees down with videos of the trees falling, car accidents and roof and structural ice damage by Thursday . I am suggesting the mods create a separate thread for this historical occasion. I also see posters talking about the snow after this thread and how the road conditions are going to be horrible and then more snow on top of the ice by this weekend. Enjoy it posters, a potential once in a life time event coming our way.popcorn.gifpopcorn.gif

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1993-94, we had bad ice but nothing like is coming our way. For once I am not wishing we were in the jackpot zone but sure looks like it from the forecast. I see a run on chainsaws, generators, kerosene heaters, battery lamps and flashlights at home depot on Thursday. This thread s going to fill up with reports of power outages, trees down with videos of the trees falling, car accidents and roof and structural ice damage by Thursday . I am suggesting the mods create a separate thread for this historical occasion. I also see posters talking about the snow after this thread and how the road conditions are going to be horrible and then more snow on top of the ice by this weekend. Enjoy it posters, a potential once in a life time event coming our way.popcorn.gifpopcorn.gif

I agree with this, and perhaps I will start one and see if it ends up pinned.

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