snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still looks low but better. Patrick, are you at all concerned that this system may, excuse my crudeness, "blow its load" to the west and be somewhat less impressive in SE MI and especially out my way. The rapid occlusion is my rationale for keeping amounts in check. I'm not sure if it's meteorologically valid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 southern wisc snow map http://www.facebook....t=o.87625716759 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Grand Rapids looks better. Ha, yeah...bring that 12-16" up a bit-k thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Let's hope the higher ratios verify. It would be a shame to be so close to a historic storm and come away with 8". I'm hoping Hamilton gets some lake enhancement to pad the totals. My current thinking is Oakville-Hamilton-Niagara is going to be the epicentre of this storm for southern Ontario due to the combination of the main storm, LES, and the better WAA snows on Tuesday. One thing you'll have to watch for is an even further NW track, which could introduce the potential for PL or a dryslot down your way. But as it stands now, you guys are golden for at least a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 FWIW here are GRR records. HERE ARE SOME 24 HOUR ALL TIME SNOWFALL RECORDS (MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT) TO SEE HOW THIS POTENTIAL 16" SNOWSTORM STACKS UP CLIMATOLOGICALLY/HISTORICALLY... GRR...16.1" ON 1/26/1978 LAN...15.4" ON 1/26/1967 MKG...22.0" ON 1/10/1982 AZO...18.0" ON 1/26/1978 BTL...21.1" ON 1/26/1967 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The somewhat alarming thing is this is happening during the work week. The last big dog, Jan 1999, was during a weekend. No doubt the "heads up" is starting to get out, hopefully people take heed. On the drifting note, hopefully Alek gets out and gets some photos of a shutdown/drifted over LSD. believe me, if we get anything close i'll take a ton of pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Quick question. When ratios are better doesn't that decrease the likelihood up higher dbz and snowfall rates? For example near the rain snow mix line obviously ratios aren't good but the precipitation and dbz are likley to be higher than where the ratios are higher to the west. Not sure I am making any sense but ill roll with it. Melting precip especially results in high dBZs, so you are right that the melting layer will have the highest reflectivities. But higher ratios result in the greater snowfall rates because the dendritic snow piles up quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Patrick, are you at all concerned that this system may, excuse my crudeness, "blow its load" to the west and be somewhat less impressive in SE MI and especially out my way. The rapid occlusion is my rationale for keeping amounts in check. I'm not sure if it's meteorologically valid though. Yes I do have that concern but I also believe DTX is undergoing amounts and if we can stay in the "pivot point" and keep the dry slot south (just barely) then I think here at metro I can get 14-18. Just north of STL towards ORD or SBN seems to have the best potential. For your area the dynamics may weaken due to the occlusion but a CCB may develop as the energy transitions to the coast to help offset some. I think you are still good for 10 to 14 inches but I haven't looked at your area as much. I can do that in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes I do have that concern but I also believe DTX is undergoing amounts and if we can stay in the "pivot point" and keep the dry slot south (just barely) then I think here at metro I can get 14-18. For your area the dynamics may weaken due to the occlusion but a CCB may develop as the energy transitions to the coast to help offset some. I think you are still good for 10 to 14 inches but I haven't looked at your area as much. I can do that in a few. Nah, don't worry about it. I was talking more generally. Just a little concerned over the growing discrepancy in QPF between chitown/mke area and the eastern lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 southern wisc snow map http://www.facebook....t=o.87625716759 Which makes me wonder where BowMe is right now? Hopefully he has a big grin on face. For kicks, it looks like Milwaukee's biggest snowstorm on record is March 2-4, 1881 with 28.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Quick question. When ratios are better doesn't that decrease the likelihood up higher dbz and snowfall rates? For example near the rain snow mix line obviously ratios aren't good but the precipitation and dbz are likley to be higher than where the ratios are higher to the west. Not sure I am making any sense but ill roll with it. Looking at it from a liquid equivalent point of view and all else being equal: Point A is just north of the mixing line and receives 2" of liquid, but only 10:1 ratios, so they end up with 20". Point B is further back from the mixing line (say 75 miles) and gets 1.5" of liquid, but 15:1 ratios, so they end up with 22.5". So point B ends up with more total snowfall even though they had 75% of point A's total water content. Radar returns aren't everything! This is part of why ratio forecasting is so important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm going 20-30" in much of northeast IL and northwest IN. Isolated higher amounts possible especially near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes I do have that concern but I also believe DTX is undergoing amounts and if we can stay in the "pivot point" and keep the dry slot south (just barely) then I think here at metro I can get 14-18. For your area the dynamics may weaken due to the occlusion but a CCB may develop as the energy transitions to the coast to help offset some. I think you are still good for 10 to 14 inches but I haven't looked at your area as much. I can do that in a few. Sean Ash for WXYZ says 13-17" Justin Ryan says 10"+ south of 59 mixing issues...unknown amounts north of 59. says a lot then threw like 16" amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My current thinking is Oakville-Hamilton-Niagara is going to be the epicentre of this storm for southern Ontario due to the combination of the main storm, LES, and the better WAA snows on Tuesday. One thing you'll have to watch for is an even further NW track, which could introduce the potential for PL or a dryslot down your way. But as it stands now, you guys are golden for at least a foot. Yes, we will have to watch for that. I think tonight's Euro will give a good feel for how this will play out. Let's hope YYZ goes back up towards 1.2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nah, don't worry about it. I was talking more generally. Just a little concerned over the growing discrepancy in QPF between chitown/mke area and the eastern lakes. To use a golf term they are in the "SWEETSPOT" where dynamics/moisture are the best....I might get a slice to the right as I "toe it". That was cheesy....OMG....NM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm heading to LOT around 9pm to shadow Gino and what not for a few hours, should be pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like the storm is going to peak over Indiana and then it dies. By the time it hits the eastern lakes, it will be a corpse lol. bittercasts FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like the storm is going to peak over Indiana and then it dies. By the time it hits the eastern lakes, it will be a corpse lol. bittercasts FTL I was just waiting for the quick response to this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, we will have to watch for that. I think tonight's Euro will give a good feel for how this will play out. Let's hope YYZ goes back up towards 1.2! Meh, I just want to get the NAM and GFS back to around an inch. That at least removes the chances for the lower end amounts. My success threshold for this one is 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just watched Phil Swartz on ABC7 and he said that with all of the years he has been doing this that he would never think that saying 12-18inches is being "conservative" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ruc really digging the southern stream. This might allow a bit slower and colder storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hey Baroclinic, or navy, what's your guys' best gues as to what st louis sees? Major ice likely I know, how much snow you think? Love reading your thoughts..thanks. Let me get back to you on that--just got done with dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Found this on DT's blog....funny...felt right to paste it here For the Northeast US — and especially the big cities in the I-95 corridor - this system is going to be a rude shock as many have come believe that Major winter storms are now some sort of US Constitutional right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Patrick, are you at all concerned that this system may, excuse my crudeness, "blow its load" to the west and be somewhat less impressive in SE MI and especially out my way. The rapid occlusion is my rationale for keeping amounts in check. I'm not sure if it's meteorologically valid though. u know how i stand id be very concerned, im even starting to become concerned for areas west of toronto. its happened time and again on the east coast the past 2 years, thats why all the bitching and moaning over there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sean Ash for WXYZ says 13-17" Justin Ryan says 10"+ south of 59 mixing issues...unknown amounts north of 59. says a lot then threw like 16" amounts On the 12Z NAM the ONLY site in SE Mich that had mixing was DET/DTW for 1 hour and even then thermal profile was marginal for a mix. Given the high precip rates I would say Monroe County is most at risk but will check 18Z data in a few on Bufkit. AT least Sean Ash and Justin Ryan agree with me on DTX going low which I can understand them doing at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Let me get back to you on that--just got done with dinner. Yeah, taking off for a bit here, so it looks like Baro will have to hold down the fort on that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Which makes me wonder where BowMe is right now? was out ice fishing, got drunk and fell in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 u know how i stand id be very concerned, im even starting to become concerned for areas west of toronto. its happened time and again on the east coast the past 2 years, thats why all the bitching and moaning over there... Something like the 18z UKIE would turn this into a turd here I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 was out ice fishing, got drunk and fell in. Well within the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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