Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 UKIE is pretty wound up...like 990 mb near STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One thing that is really mind blowing to me besides the wind, blowing snow aspect is the duration at which we could have very heavy snowfall rates. We could be looking at a solid 8hr or so period of 2"/hr rates or more. I hear ya....I am debating to I drive home or bring two sets of clothes and just get a room here at the Westin on the airport since it starts during my shift Tuesday evening and I work Thursday....not sure I want to drive home (66 miles) in that mess or after-mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DTX Looks 2-3" too low overall imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 UKIE is pretty wound up...like 990 mb near STL. Ya and its northwest as well...hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DTX I think being on the ne side of the low our ratios won't be too good. But can't complain with a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ya and its northwest as well...hmmm Looks like a rapid developer and occluder on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like a rapid developer and occluder on there. looking a tad closer it looks like it might be near 988mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ya and its northwest as well...hmmm ukie has been swinging around like the ggem. Best bet is to look at the gfs and nam trends and verify those with the euro when it comes out...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hey Baroclinic, or navy, what's your guys' best gues as to what st louis sees? Major ice likely I know, how much snow you think? Love reading your thoughts..thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z UKMET hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The somewhat alarming thing is this is happening during the work week. The last big dog, Jan 1999, was during a weekend. No doubt the "heads up" is starting to get out, hopefully people take heed. On the drifting note, hopefully Alek gets out and gets some photos of a shutdown/drifted over LSD. Yeah agreed--this will have huge socio-economic impacts. It will be interesting to see how this storm is managed afterwards. One thing that is really mind blowing to me besides the wind, blowing snow aspect is the duration at which we could have very heavy snowfall rates. We could be looking at a solid 8hr or so period of 2"/hr rates or more. It reminds me of an epic blizzard in Grand Forks where we had almost 24 hrs of blizzard conditions. Won't be that long--but this storm has way more snow--and drifting will increase exponentially with increasing snow amounts. I buy into the huge drifts but do you really think there will be 30"+ amounts. Maybe in snowbelts, but downtown Chicago? Maybe--but even say 20-25" with that wind will be massive in terms of drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nws buf thinks for some reason we could get up to 2 feet,latest runs only suggest about a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For the the Toronto lurkers: 18z NAM BUFKIT: 8-12" on 0.75" liquid 18z GFS BUFKIT: 10-15" on 0.85" liquid Much better ratios on the GFS owing to a deeper DGZ and stronger uvvs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOT still going with up to 2 feet but leaving the door open for higher amounts. This is so unreal....it almost feels like a dream...seriously... The next 72 hours are going to be very interesting, to say the least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Always fun looking at the text output, here's the 18z NAM for IKK. Yeah's that's 20.1", not counting the first wave, of straight 10:1 ratio snows. Also 14.3" in a 9 hour period. Eye candy. Station ID: KIKK Lat: 41.07 Long: -87.84 NAM Model Run: 18Z 30JAN 2011 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 0 01/30 18Z 31 27 52 10 0.00 0.00 534 554 -7.5 -21.3 1025 0 -SN CLR 0.0 12.6 3 01/30 21Z 30 26 46 10 0.00 0.00 533 554 -7.0 -21.8 1026 95 016BKN240 0.0 15.7 6 01/31 00Z 24 22 61 7 0.00 0.00 533 555 -6.9 -21.3 1028 49 048SCT152 0.0 15.0 9 01/31 03Z 22 20 52 8 0.00 0.00 533 556 -7.1 -21.9 1029 73 214BKN243 0.0 15.0 12 01/31 06Z 20 17 64 9 0.00 0.00 533 556 -7.6 -22.1 1030 47 050SCT096 0.0 14.9 15 01/31 09Z 17 14 82 11 0.00 0.00 533 556 -6.7 -21.7 1029 94 171BKN249 0.0 14.9 18 01/31 12Z 15 12 62 11 0.00 0.00 533 556 -6.1 -22.0 1029 100 169OVC293 0.0 14.9 21 01/31 15Z 17 14 74 13 0.00 0.00 534 556 -5.8 -22.2 1029 100 170OVC318 0.0 14.9 24 01/31 18Z 20 17 77 14 0.00 0.00 535 555 -4.2 -22.3 1026 100 035OVC311 0.0 15.1 27 01/31 21Z 22 19 74 13 0.00 0.00 534 553 -3.4 -22.6 1024 100 031OVC328 0.0 15.0 30 02/01 00Z 21 18 63 13 0.02 0.00 534 553 -3.8 -22.8 1023 100 -SN 006OVC341 0.1 3.1 33 02/01 03Z 20 18 66 13 0.06 0.00 534 553 -3.6 -23.5 1023 100 -SN 000OVC341 0.6 0.5 36 02/01 06Z 19 16 50 12 0.09 0.00 534 553 -5.7 -23.1 1024 100 -SN 000OVC189 0.9 1.3 39 02/01 09Z 18 15 43 12 0.03 0.00 533 552 -7.3 -23.1 1024 100 000OVC336 0.3 3.1 42 02/01 12Z 17 14 42 13 0.00 0.00 533 552 -7.5 -23.1 1025 100 000OVC363 0.0 9.1 45 02/01 15Z 20 16 47 15 0.01 0.00 533 554 -8.8 -22.6 1027 100 000OVC271 0.0 9.6 48 02/01 18Z 23 20 46 15 0.00 0.00 533 554 -9.2 -22.7 1026 100 000OVC266 0.0 9.6 51 02/01 21Z 24 21 42 18 0.00 0.00 534 553 -8.3 -21.9 1024 100 000OVC258 0.0 8.7 54 02/02 00Z 23 20 50 21 0.01 0.00 535 553 -7.8 -21.7 1023 100 -SN 000OVC356 0.1 3.4 57 02/02 03Z 22 19 56 22 0.20 0.00 537 553 -8.3 -19.4 1020 100 SN 000OVC365 2.0 0.2 60 02/02 06Z 20 18 48 25 0.38 0.00 537 550 -6.9 -17.0 1016 100 +SN 000OVC367 3.8 0.3 63 02/02 09Z 20 17 49 33 0.61 0.00 539 544 -5.5 -18.1 1006 100 SN 007OVC357 6.1 0.3 66 02/02 12Z 20 17 43 25 0.44 0.00 533 538 -12.6 -21.4 1005 100 SN 007OVC261 4.4 0.4 69 02/02 15Z 22 19 28 22 0.20 0.00 529 534 -14.2 -23.0 1007 100 -SN 007OVC201 2.0 0.7 72 02/02 18Z 25 22 9 20 0.07 0.00 527 534 -14.5 -22.7 1009 100 -SN 008OVC255 0.7 1.3 75 02/02 21Z 25 24 346 17 0.07 0.00 525 535 -13.3 -22.0 1012 100 -SN 008OVC269 0.7 0.7 78 02/03 00Z 23 20 327 19 0.06 0.00 524 538 -12.7 -21.7 1017 100 000OVC175 0.3 5.3 81 02/03 03Z 21 17 318 16 0.01 0.00 523 540 -13.1 -24.0 1022 77 065BKN075 0.0 15.9 84 02/03 06Z 14 11 303 14 0.00 0.00 523 542 -12.4 -23.8 1024 38 208SCT230 0.0 14.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GEFS total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good Luck folks and stay safe. It certainly appears this long tracked pattern will produce an Epic event. The widespread nature of this storm/pattern is truly amazing to watch unfold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GEFS at 66 So nice of the GFS ensembles to throw us on the outside looking in (central Indiana, etc.), a few nuggets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks 2-3" too low overall imho. At least they are going conservative using a 10:1 ratio right now from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good luck to you guys up there! I'm a little jelious of all the snow but handle it well and work with the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z UKMET hour 72 How did you get 18z UKMET data on PSC? When I choose "latest" it's still the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hey Baroclinic, or navy, what's your guys' best gues as to what st louis sees? Major ice likely I know, how much snow you think? Love reading your thoughts..thanks. St Louis gets a lot of ice....see what they say but I posted Bufkit data totals about an hour ago for STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm in awe with these snowfall totals being spit out for Chicago...hope they all verify at 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still looks low but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still looks low but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For the the Toronto lurkers: 18z NAM BUFKIT: 8-12" on 0.75" liquid 18z GFS BUFKIT: 10-15" on 0.85" liquid Much better ratios on the GFS owing to a deeper DGZ and stronger uvvs. Let's hope the higher ratios verify. It would be a shame to be so close to a historic storm and come away with 8". I'm hoping Hamilton gets some lake enhancement to pad the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Quick question. When ratios are better doesn't that decrease the likelihood up higher dbz and snowfall rates? For example near the rain snow mix line obviously ratios aren't good but the precipitation and dbz are likley to be higher than where the ratios are higher to the west. Not sure I am making any sense but ill roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Grand Rapids looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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