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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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One thing that is really mind blowing to me besides the wind, blowing snow aspect is the duration at which we could have very heavy snowfall rates. We could be looking at a solid 8hr or so period of 2"/hr rates or more.

I hear ya....I am debating to I drive home or bring two sets of clothes and just get a room here at the Westin on the airport since it starts during my shift Tuesday evening and I work Thursday....not sure I want to drive home (66 miles) in that mess or after-mess.

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The somewhat alarming thing is this is happening during the work week. The last big dog, Jan 1999, was during a weekend. No doubt the "heads up" is starting to get out, hopefully people take heed.

On the drifting note, hopefully Alek gets out and gets some photos of a shutdown/drifted over LSD. :guitar:

Yeah agreed--this will have huge socio-economic impacts. It will be interesting to see how this storm is managed afterwards.

One thing that is really mind blowing to me besides the wind, blowing snow aspect is the duration at which we could have very heavy snowfall rates. We could be looking at a solid 8hr or so period of 2"/hr rates or more.

It reminds me of an epic blizzard in Grand Forks where we had almost 24 hrs of blizzard conditions. Won't be that long--but this storm has way more snow--and drifting will increase exponentially with increasing snow amounts.

I buy into the huge drifts but do you really think there will be 30"+ amounts. Maybe in snowbelts, but downtown Chicago?

Maybe--but even say 20-25" with that wind will be massive in terms of drifting.

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LOT still going with up to 2 feet but leaving the door open for higher amounts.

This is so unreal....it almost feels like a dream...seriously...

The next 72 hours are going to be very interesting, to say the least....

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Always fun looking at the text output, here's the 18z NAM for IKK. Yeah's that's 20.1", not counting the first wave, of straight 10:1 ratio snows. Also 14.3" in a 9 hour period. Eye candy.

 Station ID: KIKK Lat:   41.07 Long:  -87.84                                                        
NAM Model Run: 18Z 30JAN 2011
 HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 01/30 18Z   31     27      52      10    0.00  0.00    534    554   -7.5 -21.3 1025   0 -SN      CLR       0.0   12.6
  3 01/30 21Z   30     26      46      10    0.00  0.00    533    554   -7.0 -21.8 1026  95       016BKN240    0.0   15.7
  6 01/31 00Z   24     22      61       7    0.00  0.00    533    555   -6.9 -21.3 1028  49       048SCT152    0.0   15.0
  9 01/31 03Z   22     20      52       8    0.00  0.00    533    556   -7.1 -21.9 1029  73       214BKN243    0.0   15.0
 12 01/31 06Z   20     17      64       9    0.00  0.00    533    556   -7.6 -22.1 1030  47       050SCT096    0.0   14.9
 15 01/31 09Z   17     14      82      11    0.00  0.00    533    556   -6.7 -21.7 1029  94       171BKN249    0.0   14.9
 18 01/31 12Z   15     12      62      11    0.00  0.00    533    556   -6.1 -22.0 1029 100       169OVC293    0.0   14.9
 21 01/31 15Z   17     14      74      13    0.00  0.00    534    556   -5.8 -22.2 1029 100       170OVC318    0.0   14.9
 24 01/31 18Z   20     17      77      14    0.00  0.00    535    555   -4.2 -22.3 1026 100       035OVC311    0.0   15.1
 27 01/31 21Z   22     19      74      13    0.00  0.00    534    553   -3.4 -22.6 1024 100       031OVC328    0.0   15.0
 30 02/01 00Z   21     18      63      13    0.02  0.00    534    553   -3.8 -22.8 1023 100 -SN   006OVC341    0.1    3.1
 33 02/01 03Z   20     18      66      13    0.06  0.00    534    553   -3.6 -23.5 1023 100 -SN   000OVC341    0.6    0.5
 36 02/01 06Z   19     16      50      12    0.09  0.00    534    553   -5.7 -23.1 1024 100 -SN   000OVC189    0.9    1.3
 39 02/01 09Z   18     15      43      12    0.03  0.00    533    552   -7.3 -23.1 1024 100       000OVC336    0.3    3.1
 42 02/01 12Z   17     14      42      13    0.00  0.00    533    552   -7.5 -23.1 1025 100       000OVC363    0.0    9.1
 45 02/01 15Z   20     16      47      15    0.01  0.00    533    554   -8.8 -22.6 1027 100       000OVC271    0.0    9.6
 48 02/01 18Z   23     20      46      15    0.00  0.00    533    554   -9.2 -22.7 1026 100       000OVC266    0.0    9.6
 51 02/01 21Z   24     21      42      18    0.00  0.00    534    553   -8.3 -21.9 1024 100       000OVC258    0.0    8.7
 54 02/02 00Z   23     20      50      21    0.01  0.00    535    553   -7.8 -21.7 1023 100 -SN   000OVC356    0.1    3.4
 57 02/02 03Z   22     19      56      22    0.20  0.00    537    553   -8.3 -19.4 1020 100 SN    000OVC365    2.0    0.2
 60 02/02 06Z   20     18      48      25    0.38  0.00    537    550   -6.9 -17.0 1016 100 +SN   000OVC367    3.8    0.3
 63 02/02 09Z   20     17      49      33    0.61  0.00    539    544   -5.5 -18.1 1006 100 SN    007OVC357    6.1    0.3
 66 02/02 12Z   20     17      43      25    0.44  0.00    533    538  -12.6 -21.4 1005 100 SN    007OVC261    4.4    0.4
 69 02/02 15Z   22     19      28      22    0.20  0.00    529    534  -14.2 -23.0 1007 100 -SN   007OVC201    2.0    0.7
 72 02/02 18Z   25     22       9      20    0.07  0.00    527    534  -14.5 -22.7 1009 100 -SN   008OVC255    0.7    1.3
 75 02/02 21Z   25     24     346      17    0.07  0.00    525    535  -13.3 -22.0 1012 100 -SN   008OVC269    0.7    0.7
 78 02/03 00Z   23     20     327      19    0.06  0.00    524    538  -12.7 -21.7 1017 100       000OVC175    0.3    5.3
 81 02/03 03Z   21     17     318      16    0.01  0.00    523    540  -13.1 -24.0 1022  77       065BKN075    0.0   15.9
 84 02/03 06Z   14     11     303      14    0.00  0.00    523    542  -12.4 -23.8 1024  38       208SCT230    0.0   14.9

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For the the Toronto lurkers:

18z NAM BUFKIT: 8-12" on 0.75" liquid

18z GFS BUFKIT: 10-15" on 0.85" liquid

Much better ratios on the GFS owing to a deeper DGZ and stronger uvvs.

Let's hope the higher ratios verify. It would be a shame to be so close to a historic storm and come away with 8". I'm hoping Hamilton gets some lake enhancement to pad the totals.

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Quick question. When ratios are better doesn't that decrease the likelihood up higher dbz and snowfall rates? For example near the rain snow mix line obviously ratios aren't good but the precipitation and dbz are likley to be higher than where the ratios are higher to the west. Not sure I am making any sense but ill roll with it.

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