B-Rent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 <br />Wow <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> a keeper<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br />Go back in a few. SGF is going warning right now. Get rid of that annoying gap. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I believe it was ARX (Dan Baumgardt) that has done research on the extreme snow ratio events. I would check the "Items of Interest" part of their homepage to see if they have the study posted. Thank you very much--found it. I will definitely give this a read. For anyone who is interested: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/micro/micrope.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gonna be close, good luck everyone, I need a break see you in 3 or 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwassmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow a keeper Hmmmm...shift that 120 miles southeast and I'd agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the 18Z runs lower precip totals here in N IL by about .50, do we think this is the beginning of a downward trend, more realist run (with regard to the 2+ on the 12z NAM, or just a blip?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the 18Z runs lower precip totals here in N IL by about .50, do we think this is the beginning of a downward trend, more realist run (with regard to the 2+ on the 12z NAM, or just a blip?? NAM still has 2+ poking into northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Bufkit "BEST GUESSES" for the area for this storm. These are just straight 10:1 averages even though these areas should be in the 14:1 to 20:1 range based on what I am seeing....but for argumentative sake going straight 10:1 would yield in a 24 hr period based on the 12Z NAM: LOCATION: 10:1 15:1 ICE ACCUM DTX: 14.2 21.3 DTW 12.0 18.0 0.1 GRR 13.1 19.6 AZO 13.6 20.4 SBN 16.1 24.2 ORD 23.0 34.5 MKE 11.6 17.1 MKX 8.6 12.9 RFD 12.7 19.1 DVN 14.1 21.2 STL 2.4 3.6 1.45 Ice Pellets PIA 18.7 28.1 LAF 1.2 2.3 1.36 Ice Pellets DAY 0.2 0.3 0.32 Freezing Rain (lower totals due to dry slot and RA) I guess we can put a kabash on the "Patrick is a Michigan weather shield" since you are still there for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Bufkit "BEST GUESSES" for the area for this storm. These are just straight 10:1 averages even though these areas should be in the 14:1 to 20:1 range based on what I am seeing....but for argumentative sake going straight 10:1 would yield in a 24 hr period based on the 12Z NAM: LOCATION: 10:1 15:1 ICE ACCUM DTX: 14.2 21.3 DTW 12.0 18.0 0.1 GRR 13.1 19.6 AZO 13.6 20.4 SBN 16.1 24.2 ORD 23.0 34.5 MKE 11.6 17.1 MKX 8.6 12.9 RFD 12.7 19.1 DVN 14.1 21.2 STL 2.4 3.6 1.45 Ice Pellets PIA 18.7 28.1 LAF 1.2 2.3 1.36 Ice Pellets DAY 0.2 0.3 0.32 Freezing Rain (lower totals due to dry slot and RA) Im curious as to exactly what the second number, or number in parenthesis is on BUFKIT. Is that like the total accumulated, while the first number takes into effect compaction, and melting? Or is it simply multiple snow ratios like you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM still has 2+ poking into northeast IL. Yep, and the Euro has remained quite juicy for several days. I'm sure we'll continue to see minor fluctuations back and forth with max precip amounts, but I wouldn't expect any major changes at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 18z data came in colder and puts the major ice storm back on the table. I will push the button if 00z goes colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wisn Milwaukee local RPM model http://weatherwatch12.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/rpm_total_storm_snowfall_forecast.jpg Yes that 24-30 inches along the lake front from Milwaukee down to Midway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Im curious as to exactly what the second number, or number in parenthesis is on BUFKIT. Is that like the total accumulated, while the first number takes into effect compaction, and melting? Or is it simply multiple snow ratios like you have. The first number is snowfall accum using a 10:1 ratio....second is using a 15:1 ratio....third number is ice pellet or freezing rain accum. The data was in columns but when I pasted here it distorted the columns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wisn Milwaukee local RPM model http://weatherwatch12.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/rpm_total_storm_snowfall_forecast.jpg Yes that 24-30 inches along the lake front from Milwaukee down to Midway. That would place Janet at ground zero with 30 inches. I can't even imagine that much snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wisn Milwaukee local RPM model http://weatherwatch12.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/rpm_total_storm_snowfall_forecast.jpg Yes that 24-30 inches along the lake front from Milwaukee down to Midway. Eh, congrats Peoria on that one. 30"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That would place Janet at ground zero with 30 inches. I can't even imagine that much snow! Eh, congrats Peoria on that one. 30"+. The drifting potential is truly amazing. Chicago will be shut down for days with potential for drifts into the double digit feet category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wisn Milwaukee local RPM model http://weatherwatch12.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/rpm_total_storm_snowfall_forecast.jpg Yes that 24-30 inches along the lake front from Milwaukee down to Midway. a real possibility IMO 24" is out to Chi storm and just east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So, I might miss a historical snowstorm in my hometown, which is an hour away. Should I make the trip, and sacrifice about 2 days of classes (best case scenario)? The last 12"+ storm I have witnessed was in Jan of 1999. The chances of my hometown getting at least that are VERY good. Here in Lafayette, it looks like a MESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 a real possibility IMO 24" is out to Chi storm and just east of me. Even pushing 2 feet here. That would be pretty incredible. Haven't seen anything over 10" since '99, so that would make it extra special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The drifting potential is truly amazing. Chicago will be shut down for days with potential for drifts into the double digit feet category. The somewhat alarming thing is this is happening during the work week. The last big dog, Jan 1999, was during a weekend. No doubt the "heads up" is starting to get out, hopefully people take heed. On the drifting note, hopefully Alek gets out and gets some photos of a shutdown/drifted over LSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The first number is snowfall accum using a 10:1 ratio....second is using a 15:1 ratio....third number is ice pellet or freezing rain accum. The data was in columns but when I pasted here it distorted the columns. Oh yeah, i got that, I actually meant in BUFKIT, but I found out: Snow accumulation. Summing up hourly snowfall amount to get a total is not the way snow is measured. BUFKIT 10.6 provides a new “Snow Accumulation” plot to align hourly model output with official snow measurement procedures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The drifting potential is truly amazing. Chicago will be shut down for days with potential for drifts into the double digit feet category. One thing that is really mind blowing to me besides the wind, blowing snow aspect is the duration at which we could have very heavy snowfall rates. We could be looking at a solid 8hr or so period of 2"/hr rates or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So, I might miss a historical snowstorm in my hometown, which is an hour away. Should I make the trip, and sacrifice about 2 days of classes (best case scenario)? The last 12"+ storm I have witnessed was in Jan of 1999. The chances of my hometown getting at least that are VERY good. Here in Lafayette, it looks like a MESS. I thought about traveling north to back home, but two things going against that: 1) I have Mon-Tue off, but have to be at work Wed. If this goes down as expected, there's zero chance I could make it back in time, 2) I don't want to jinx back home or the people up north. Better I stay here and take my medicine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The drifting potential is truly amazing. Chicago will be shut down for days with potential for drifts into the double digit feet category. I buy into the huge drifts but do you really think there will be 30"+ amounts. Maybe in snowbelts, but downtown Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm going 20-30" in much of northeast IL and northwest IN. Isolated higher amounts possible especially near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I thought about traveling north to back home, but two things going against that: 1) I have Mon-Tue off, but have to be at work Wed. If this goes down as expected, there's zero chance I could make it back in time, 2) I don't want to jinx back home or the people up north. Better I stay here and take my medicine. Yeah, I could very realistically skip Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. However, I would HAVE to be back by Friday. I have a 4x4, so I think I'd be fine. I don't know. I do NOT want to miss something like this because I don't know when another chance like this would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I buy into the huge drifts but do you really think there will be 30"+ amounts. Maybe in snowbelts, but downtown Chicago? That might be a stretch at ORD or MDW, but I would expect a couple of isolated spots to get that much when combined with the WAA event and lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I buy into the huge drifts but do you really think there will be 30"+ amounts. Maybe in snowbelts, but downtown Chicago? It has happened before and thus see Jan 67.Granted it was not downtown Chicago but some spots did pick up that much in sw MI and none of it was off the lake as the flow was most likely ne/ene. Place not far from here ended up with a little over 31" from it. Unsure of how the storms compare so not sure if this one compares to that. That had alot more warmth ahead of it though which probably fed into the high totals. But they have a lake to help out as well. Thus seems very possible. imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 im so envious. This is killing me. Congrats chicagowx,buckeye,harry,etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 im so envious. This is killing me. Congrats chicagowx,buckeye,harry,etc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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