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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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<br />Wow <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' /> a keeper<br />

post-77-0-21283600-1296426345.png<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Go back in a few. SGF is going warning right now. Get rid of that annoying gap.

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

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I believe it was ARX (Dan Baumgardt) that has done research on the extreme snow ratio events. I would check the "Items of Interest" part of their homepage to see if they have the study posted.

Thank you very much--found it. I will definitely give this a read.

For anyone who is interested:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/micro/micrope.php

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Bufkit "BEST GUESSES" for the area for this storm. These are just straight 10:1 averages even though these areas should be in the 14:1 to 20:1 range based on what I am seeing....but for argumentative sake going straight 10:1 would yield in a 24 hr period based on the 12Z NAM:

LOCATION: 10:1 15:1 ICE ACCUM

DTX: 14.2 21.3

DTW 12.0 18.0 0.1

GRR 13.1 19.6

AZO 13.6 20.4

SBN 16.1 24.2

ORD 23.0 34.5

MKE 11.6 17.1

MKX 8.6 12.9

RFD 12.7 19.1

DVN 14.1 21.2

STL 2.4 3.6 1.45 Ice Pellets

PIA 18.7 28.1

LAF 1.2 2.3 1.36 Ice Pellets

DAY 0.2 0.3 0.32 Freezing Rain (lower totals due to dry slot and RA)

I guess we can put a kabash on the "Patrick is a Michigan weather shield" since you are still there for this eventthumbsupsmileyanim.giftongue.gif

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Bufkit "BEST GUESSES" for the area for this storm. These are just straight 10:1 averages even though these areas should be in the 14:1 to 20:1 range based on what I am seeing....but for argumentative sake going straight 10:1 would yield in a 24 hr period based on the 12Z NAM:

LOCATION: 10:1 15:1 ICE ACCUM

DTX: 14.2 21.3

DTW 12.0 18.0 0.1

GRR 13.1 19.6

AZO 13.6 20.4

SBN 16.1 24.2

ORD 23.0 34.5

MKE 11.6 17.1

MKX 8.6 12.9

RFD 12.7 19.1

DVN 14.1 21.2

STL 2.4 3.6 1.45 Ice Pellets

PIA 18.7 28.1

LAF 1.2 2.3 1.36 Ice Pellets

DAY 0.2 0.3 0.32 Freezing Rain (lower totals due to dry slot and RA)

Im curious as to exactly what the second number, or number in parenthesis is on BUFKIT. Is that like the total accumulated, while the first number takes into effect compaction, and melting? Or is it simply multiple snow ratios like you have.

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Im curious as to exactly what the second number, or number in parenthesis is on BUFKIT. Is that like the total accumulated, while the first number takes into effect compaction, and melting? Or is it simply multiple snow ratios like you have.

The first number is snowfall accum using a 10:1 ratio....second is using a 15:1 ratio....third number is ice pellet or freezing rain accum. The data was in columns but when I pasted here it distorted the columns.

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So, I might miss a historical snowstorm in my hometown, which is an hour away. Should I make the trip, and sacrifice about 2 days of classes (best case scenario)? The last 12"+ storm I have witnessed was in Jan of 1999. The chances of my hometown getting at least that are VERY good.

Here in Lafayette, it looks like a MESS.

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The drifting potential is truly amazing. Chicago will be shut down for days with potential for drifts into the double digit feet category.

The somewhat alarming thing is this is happening during the work week. The last big dog, Jan 1999, was during a weekend. No doubt the "heads up" is starting to get out, hopefully people take heed.

On the drifting note, hopefully Alek gets out and gets some photos of a shutdown/drifted over LSD. :guitar:

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The first number is snowfall accum using a 10:1 ratio....second is using a 15:1 ratio....third number is ice pellet or freezing rain accum. The data was in columns but when I pasted here it distorted the columns.

Oh yeah, i got that, I actually meant in BUFKIT, but I found out:

Snow accumulation. Summing up hourly snowfall amount to get a total is not the way snow is measured. BUFKIT 10.6 provides a new “Snow Accumulation” plot to align hourly model output with official snow measurement procedures.
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The drifting potential is truly amazing. Chicago will be shut down for days with potential for drifts into the double digit feet category.

One thing that is really mind blowing to me besides the wind, blowing snow aspect is the duration at which we could have very heavy snowfall rates. We could be looking at a solid 8hr or so period of 2"/hr rates or more.

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So, I might miss a historical snowstorm in my hometown, which is an hour away. Should I make the trip, and sacrifice about 2 days of classes (best case scenario)? The last 12"+ storm I have witnessed was in Jan of 1999. The chances of my hometown getting at least that are VERY good.

Here in Lafayette, it looks like a MESS.

I thought about traveling north to back home, but two things going against that: 1) I have Mon-Tue off, but have to be at work Wed. If this goes down as expected, there's zero chance I could make it back in time, 2) I don't want to jinx back home or the people up north. Better I stay here and take my medicine. :lol:

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The drifting potential is truly amazing. Chicago will be shut down for days with potential for drifts into the double digit feet category.

I buy into the huge drifts but do you really think there will be 30"+ amounts. Maybe in snowbelts, but downtown Chicago?

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I thought about traveling north to back home, but two things going against that: 1) I have Mon-Tue off, but have to be at work Wed. If this goes down as expected, there's zero chance I could make it back in time, 2) I don't want to jinx back home or the people up north. Better I stay here and take my medicine. :lol:

Yeah, I could very realistically skip Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. However, I would HAVE to be back by Friday. I have a 4x4, so I think I'd be fine. I don't know. I do NOT want to miss something like this because I don't know when another chance like this would happen.

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I buy into the huge drifts but do you really think there will be 30"+ amounts. Maybe in snowbelts, but downtown Chicago?

It has happened before and thus see Jan 67.Granted it was not downtown Chicago but some spots did pick up that much in sw MI and none of it was off the lake as the flow was most likely ne/ene. Place not far from here ended up with a little over 31" from it. Unsure of how the storms compare so not sure if this one compares to that. That had alot more warmth ahead of it though which probably fed into the high totals. But they have a lake to help out as well. Thus seems very possible. imo

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