cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gino put something on his FB that showed ORD getting 15" in 6hr...hello. That would be truly remarkable. I think it's safe to say there's probably going to be some rumbles of thunder if we see rates like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It wouldn't be the winter season if this map wasn't any hooter than it, hotter than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 354 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 UPDATE THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW. SYNOPSIS A CRITICAL AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION IS SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND THIS WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER WAVE DESCENDING OUT OF CANADA ALONG WITH A BROAD ARCTIC HIGH TO PRODUCE WHAT MAY BE A LONG AND WIDESPREAD FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON THE AXES OF HEAVIEST ICING AND HEAVIEST SNOW. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WHILE A LARGE AND STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PLUNGES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/ FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON TEMPS. MODELS ARE CLOSE AND A BLEND IS USED. WHILE WE MAY INITIALLY START THE EVENING CLEAR IN THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THESE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE WILDLY EXCEEDED ALL GUIDANCE PACKAGES THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE TUNE OF 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS. THUS...HAVE CHOSEN TO BUMP UP EVEN THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AND BOTH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT...ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...BUT THIS IS REALLY THE FIRST MODEL RUN IN WHICH THE LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...TRENDS IN RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY PULLING THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...AS IS OFTEN SEEN WITH SUCH STRONG SYSTEMS...AND THIS COULD HAVE AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON THE RESULTANT SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE AREA. WHEREAS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH THE MAJOR ICING AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...CONTINUED NORTHWEST TRENDS COULD SHIFT ALL THESE NORTHWEST AS WELL. SYSTEM IS STRONGLY FORCED REALLY NO MATTER HOW ONE CHOOSES TO QUANTIFY IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREDIBLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...60 TO 80KTS AT 850 MB. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOTED...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT IS ALSO NOTED...AGAIN ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN PROFILES TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LOW LOWER LEVEL WETBULB TEMPS MAY SEE THINGS BRIEFLY START LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS SNOW BEFORE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX WITH SLEET. AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ZONE WILL PUSH EVEN FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS ALLOWING A TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN OVER SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS LOW PASSES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH. THIS COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PERHAPS SOME STRUCTURES...EVEN AFTER THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...AND MAY COMPLICATE RECOVERY EFFORTS AFTER THE FACT. FOR TEMPS...STUCK VERY NEAR MODEL SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. INTENSE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSENSUS AMONG SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO CONTINUE WITH WATCHES...AS TRENDS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE WHERE HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICE WILL OCCUR...TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WILL PULL START TIME OF WATCH BACK TO 00Z TUESDAY AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES TO PROVIDE SOME MARGIN FOR UNCERTAINTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 per HPC the issue was the 12z NAM?? Thus i would assume it has corrected itself back? Well the 18Z NAM is even farther W So that means it actually took two steps back according to that HPC disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Storm Call.. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Alright, I'm gonna bite after that 12z guidance. ORD 22-28" At least two gusts to 50KT (from ASOS/official obs) At least four gusts to 45KT Max sustained at 34KT. Blizz criteria met. 3-5" inital WAA 18-24" from the main storm. RFD gets 19-25" At least 1 gust to 50KT At least 3 gusts to 45KT Max sustained at 30KT Blizz criteria met. Truly almost unbelievable. The fact that a person as gifted/educated with weather as yourself has typed this scenario out is something. Kudos to you. And man I hope like hell something like this goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1.50-1.75" QPF over north central IL in 12hrs. Really? These numbers are just SICK. I think I may have to bump my earlier calls for 7-10" for the QC. 7-10" doesn't look horrible if you are just talking about Tuesday -> Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 dont know if this was posted already but I will put it up again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well the 18Z NAM is even farther W So that means it actually took two steps back according to that HPC disco. Wonder what is up with that? One would think then that the surface features would come west as well? Strange.. Oh well. Cant complain as i know it is a very complex situation for the models to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Those of you in the ice area Generators will run out very fast - gasoline stations could be closed - we ran out of many many gallons of gas - there is only so much you can put in gallon jugs - we could not buy gasoline jugs anywhere for days and days after the event. Batteries gone. No power means no ATM machines. Cash was KING during the ice storm. Most places would not accept anything but cash. I echo on Beau with this. Fill up your car now. If you go to a College and you are over 200 miles from home, I would go ahead and fill up your car today. My University had to evacuate all the dorms and sent us home because we had no water, no power, no cell phone service. Nearest working gas station was 30 miles to my south and 50 miles to my east. Luckily I had just enough gas to get me to the one to my east. You never know what can go wrong.It's best to prepare now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And for those wondering what will happen http://blog.usawx.co...stern-kentucky/ That is what we went through - my journal at the time. Wow amazing pictures. Ice storms like that are definitely devastating. Jomo brought up 1997 in Springfield, MO. My sister was down there for that and the epic power loss across the city crippled everything. She had to move to Branson for over a week with her kids/husband because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I like where I am sitting on that map! dont know if this was posted already but I will put it up again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wonder what is up with that? One would think then that the surface features would come west as well? Strange.. Oh well. Cant complain as i know it is a very complex situation for the models to resolve. Yeah a good question. dtk at NCEP--who works on the GFS data assimilation system--called it the "NAM drift" issue. It is definitely propping its head up here. Those changes in the height field are just not realistic at 48 hours. It very well may tick a tad W--but that type of change either W or E in the overall large scale trough is not something that typically happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 7-10" doesn't look horrible if you are just talking about Tuesday -> Wednesday. 10-15" with isolated higher amounts may be a safe forecast for the whole event here. I don't know if I'd feel comfortable going any higher than that 48+hrs out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NWS Norman will be issuing a PDS Winter Storm Warning....I didn't know they even existed! I'll add the text when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 10-15" with isolated higher amounts may be a safe forecast for the whole event here. I don't know if I'd feel comfortable going any higher than that 48+hrs out lol. The public can't see right now, but you would love what is sitting in our extended snow grids. Let's just say it's a 10" range across the CWA and everyone gets double digits for a 3 day total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Umm...18z NAM raw data is showing 2.22" liquid at ORD... MON 7P 31-JAN -5.7 -7.1 1025 88 99 0.01 552 532 TUE 1A 01-FEB -6.4 -7.7 1024 90 90 0.13 552 533 TUE 7A 01-FEB -6.4 -10.1 1025 90 93 0.08 551 532 TUE 1P 01-FEB -4.4 -9.6 1024 88 81 0.04 553 534 TUE 7P 01-FEB -4.5 -10.0 1019 92 98 0.24 550 535 WED 1A 02-FEB -5.3 -9.7 1010 90 98 0.71 543 535 WED 7A 02-FEB -4.8 -13.9 1006 92 93 0.75 532 527 WED 1P 02-FEB -4.8 -14.4 1013 89 88 0.19 532 522 WED 7P 02-FEB -5.1 -14.2 1023 84 84 0.07 539 521 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah a good question. dtk at NCEP--who works on the GFS data assimilation system--called it the "NAM drift" issue. It is definitely propping its head up here. Those changes in the height field are just not realistic at 48 hours. It very well may tick a tad W--but that type of change either W or E in the overall large scale trough is not something that typically happens. So these heights is causing the storm to track too far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What do you think of the 18Z NAM height field changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The public can't see right now, but you would love what is sitting in our extended snow grids. Let's just say it's a 10" range across the CWA and everyone gets double digits for a 3 day total. Interesting. Can't wait to see the afternoon package here in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The public can't see right now, but you would love what is sitting in our extended snow grids. Let's just say it's a 10" range across the CWA and everyone gets double digits for a 3 day total. Holy.... That is 100% awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow amazing pictures. Ice storms like that are definitely devastating. Jomo brought up 1997 in Springfield, MO. My sister was down there for that and the epic power loss across the city crippled everything. She had to move to Branson for over a week with her kids/husband because of it. It was in 2007. We actually had two. One in Jan and one in Dec. Both were right along I-44, and this system may be moving towards a solution similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So these heights is causing the storm to track too far west? It changes a lot of things that take too long to type out Overall it looks like a similar ending but they are different. Like I said for now just take the changes with a grain of salt and stick with the 12Z guidance for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NWS Norman will be issuing a PDS Winter Storm Warning....I didn't know they even existed! I'll add the text when it comes out. I hope that is more of a euphemism than a reality. I think the idea behind a winter storm warning is that it is already particularly dangerous, especially in the OUN area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Umm...18z NAM raw data is showing 2.22" liquid at ORD... MON 7P 31-JAN -5.7 -7.1 1025 88 99 0.01 552 532 TUE 1A 01-FEB -6.4 -7.7 1024 90 90 0.13 552 533 TUE 7A 01-FEB -6.4 -10.1 1025 90 93 0.08 551 532 TUE 1P 01-FEB -4.4 -9.6 1024 88 81 0.04 553 534 TUE 7P 01-FEB -4.5 -10.0 1019 92 98 0.24 550 535 WED 1A 02-FEB -5.3 -9.7 1010 90 98 0.71 543 535 WED 7A 02-FEB -4.8 -13.9 1006 92 93 0.75 532 527 WED 1P 02-FEB -4.8 -14.4 1013 89 88 0.19 532 522 WED 7P 02-FEB -5.1 -14.2 1023 84 84 0.07 539 521 looks like some 2.5 inches amounts for me waiting for people to post more detailed info I'll believe it when i see it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Impressive 200+ mile wide band of >2" QPF in the cold sector on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It was in 2007. We actually had two. One in Jan and one in Dec. Both were right along I-44, and this system may be moving towards a solution similar. LOL I meant to type 2007--not 1997. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 csnavy, I'm thinking we could see some localized amounts topping 30" from the IL shore over into northwest Indiana. What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Timing is definitely changed and the ptype over regions where things are relatively close would be much different. Hi BI, Congrats on your new job, You will be a gr8 forcaster as you are here! So Im currently thinking some colder air will make it further south to me, making this a more serious icing for us? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 From OUN: THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM SITUATION... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SERIOUSLY AND PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. * A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. * TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW MONDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING... ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING... BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * MAIN IMPACT: A CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS: VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS... ALONG WITH EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ON EXPOSED SURFACES... ALSO MAY LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS OF COMMERCIAL POWER. BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE POOR VISIBILITY AND NEAR-WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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