dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here is a tidbit from the afd... "QPF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THEVARIOUS MODELS AND USING A REASONABLY CONSERVATIVE 10-12:1 SLRRESULTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-14 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT ALONE." Did not see that but with a temp of 24 degrees. Whats the ratio of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Morning y'all. Few obsverations and questions. Thanks in advance for your input. Its greatly appreciated. This looks to be a fairly fast mover. Is that normal for strong storms like this? Also the front ends snows today and tonight, is that just WAA from the monster down south or is that the northern stream storm just going by. And also is that string high to the NW causing this storm to occlude because if the high wasnt there this would track more NW but it cant here so it has no to choice but to weaken as its forced east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 radar doesnt show it very well, but we are getting pretty good freezing drizzle,could call it light freezing rain. took 30min for me to get home from work, normally only takes around 10-12min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Did not see that but with a temp of 24 degrees. Whats the ratio of that? weatherguru, there are more to ratios than surface temps, in fact surface temps play almost no role. You have to look at temps through the column. Second and more importantly, 40-50 mph winds will shatter dendites into dust with a much lower snow to liquid ratio. Third and less likely, they may be using a slightly more conservative SLR as a hedge against possible lower QPF amounts. I really like LOT's baseline 8-14 call, although i'd favor much higher amounts far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 weatherguru, there are more to ratios than surface temps, in fact surface temps play almost no role. You have to look at temps through the column. Second and more importantly, 40-50 mph winds will shatter dendites into dust with a much lower snow to liquid ratio. Third and less likely, they may be using a slightly more conservative SLR as a hedge against possible lower QPF amounts. I really like LOT's baseline 8-14 call, although i'd favor much higher amounts far southeast. And that is just for the tuesday night time period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 weatherguru, there are more to ratios than surface temps, in fact surface temps play almost no role. You have to look at temps through the column. Second and more importantly, 40-50 mph winds will shatter dendites into dust with a much lower snow to liquid ratio. Third and less likely, they may be using a slightly more conservative SLR as a hedge against possible lower QPF amounts. I really like LOT's baseline 8-14 call, although i'd favor much higher amounts far southeast. Ah I c now. Those flakes will be small like pixies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Morning y'all. Few obsverations and questions. Thanks in advance for your input. Its greatly appreciated. This looks to be a fairly fast mover. Is that normal for strong storms like this? Also the front ends snows today and tonight, is that just WAA from the monster down south or is that the northern stream storm just going by. And also is that string high to the NW causing this storm to occlude because if the high wasnt there this would track more NW but it cant here so it has no to choice but to weaken as its forced east? Its going to be intense event for 12-15 hrs! 1-2" per hour at times, likely accumulations of 14-15" some less some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We are targeting Peoria unless something weird happens on the 12z data. Leaving in a couple of hours. You know you are a true weather geek when you go winter storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/11816-january-31-february-2-historic-winter-storm-part-7/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And that is just for the tuesday night time period.. Sure, the tail end of the lake enchanced defo band is a tough call, sometimes those things hang around and dump and sometimes they pull east real quick, it's hard to peg the evolution of those features right now. I still think there will be a huge spread across the area, including amounts over 20" in the highest areas and possible single digit totals far NW, but i'd take that with a grain of salt since mets much more knowledgeable than i disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We are targeting Peoria unless something weird happens on the 12z data. Leaving in a couple of hours. Good choice, IMO. Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Its going to be intense event for 12-15 hrs! 1-2" per hour at times, likely accumulations of 14-15" some less some more. Yea its interesting to read though that in areas that you would think would have the colder temps and heavier precip aren't going to have that good of ratios due to the high wind. Was just curious where the best ratios usually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We are targeting Peoria unless something weird happens on the 12z data. Leaving in a couple of hours. I'm targeting Peoria too I still have a hard time believing the totals.....since climate is against it FYI Record Snowfall (calendar day)14.5 inchesFebruary 28, 1900 Record Snowfall (any 24-hour period)18.0 inchesFebruary 27-28, 1900 seasons currently at 29.6 with lots of nickle and dime systems Top 10 Snowiest Years RankCalendar Year TotalYearSeasonal TotalSeason 1 52.3 inches197751.6 inches1978-79 2 47.0 inches201047.1 inches1977-78 3 45.7 inches192646.9 inches1981-82 4 41.2 inches195144.0 inches1925-26 5 39.9 inches198242.4 inches1942-43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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