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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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Morning y'all. Few obsverations and questions. Thanks in advance for your input. Its greatly appreciated. This looks to be a fairly fast mover. Is that normal for strong storms like this? Also the front ends snows today and tonight, is that just WAA from the monster down south or is that the northern stream storm just going by. And also is that string high to the NW causing this storm to occlude because if the high wasnt there this would track more NW but it cant here so it has no to choice but to weaken as its forced east?

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Did not see that but with a temp of 24 degrees. Whats the ratio of that?

weatherguru, there are more to ratios than surface temps, in fact surface temps play almost no role. You have to look at temps through the column. Second and more importantly, 40-50 mph winds will shatter dendites into dust with a much lower snow to liquid ratio. Third and less likely, they may be using a slightly more conservative SLR as a hedge against possible lower QPF amounts. I really like LOT's baseline 8-14 call, although i'd favor much higher amounts far southeast.

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weatherguru, there are more to ratios than surface temps, in fact surface temps play almost no role. You have to look at temps through the column. Second and more importantly, 40-50 mph winds will shatter dendites into dust with a much lower snow to liquid ratio. Third and less likely, they may be using a slightly more conservative SLR as a hedge against possible lower QPF amounts. I really like LOT's baseline 8-14 call, although i'd favor much higher amounts far southeast.

And that is just for the tuesday night time period..

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weatherguru, there are more to ratios than surface temps, in fact surface temps play almost no role. You have to look at temps through the column. Second and more importantly, 40-50 mph winds will shatter dendites into dust with a much lower snow to liquid ratio. Third and less likely, they may be using a slightly more conservative SLR as a hedge against possible lower QPF amounts. I really like LOT's baseline 8-14 call, although i'd favor much higher amounts far southeast.

Ah I c now. Those flakes will be small like pixies.

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Morning y'all. Few obsverations and questions. Thanks in advance for your input. Its greatly appreciated. This looks to be a fairly fast mover. Is that normal for strong storms like this? Also the front ends snows today and tonight, is that just WAA from the monster down south or is that the northern stream storm just going by. And also is that string high to the NW causing this storm to occlude because if the high wasnt there this would track more NW but it cant here so it has no to choice but to weaken as its forced east?

Its going to be intense event for 12-15 hrs! 1-2" per hour at times, likely accumulations of 14-15" some less some more.

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And that is just for the tuesday night time period..

Sure, the tail end of the lake enchanced defo band is a tough call, sometimes those things hang around and dump and sometimes they pull east real quick, it's hard to peg the evolution of those features right now. I still think there will be a huge spread across the area, including amounts over 20" in the highest areas and possible single digit totals far NW, but i'd take that with a grain of salt since mets much more knowledgeable than i disagree.

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Its going to be intense event for 12-15 hrs! 1-2" per hour at times, likely accumulations of 14-15" some less some more.

Yea its interesting to read though that in areas that you would think would have the colder temps and heavier precip aren't going to have that good of ratios due to the high wind. Was just curious where the best ratios usually are.

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We are targeting Peoria unless something weird happens on the 12z data. Leaving in a couple of hours. :)

I'm targeting Peoria too :)

I still have a hard time believing the totals.....since climate is against it

FYI

Record Snowfall (calendar day)14.5 inchesFebruary 28, 1900

Record Snowfall (any 24-hour period)18.0 inchesFebruary 27-28, 1900

seasons currently at 29.6 with lots of nickle and dime systems

Top 10 Snowiest Years RankCalendar

Year TotalYearSeasonal

TotalSeason

1 52.3 inches197751.6 inches1978-79

2 47.0 inches201047.1 inches1977-78

3 45.7 inches192646.9 inches1981-82

4 41.2 inches195144.0 inches1925-26

5 39.9 inches198242.4 inches1942-43

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