Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 to be fair that poster was from an area NW of the city where QPF is now down to around .5-.75, it could be wrong, but he's not totally off base with 8" expectations. What model has .5-.75 for those areas? I haven't seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I haven't made any calls for this event, but like so many in the past we're going to see an impressive gradient LOT wide and i anticipate some enchanced banding which will tantilize but screw some just north. I think areas as far NW as RFD stand a good chance of failing to hit double digits, while far SE areas from IKK to TornadoTony will go well over a foot, to near 2 ft lakeshore NW Indiana. Some prelim calls around LOT, amounts not including 1-2" overrunning snows: Rockford-6-9" Schaumburg/Chistorm/Beast: 9-11" IMBY: 12-15" IKK: 14-18" Gary: 16-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What model has .5-.75 for those areas? I haven't seen one. 6z NAM has a dark blue .5-.75 over the far NW suburbs. EDIT: i do think i confused Des Plaines with DeKalb, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Weather Channel seems very enthuastic (hwoever you call it) about Chicago. They just said 1-2 feet for Chicago. Kept talking about Chicago. Mike Bennette will be reporting in Chicago tommorow.They say "Armageddon" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z NAM has a dark blue .5-.75 over the far NW suburbs. EDIT: i do think i confused Des Plaines with DeKalb, my bad. The NAM which is suffering from feedback issues that B-I made note of and one tiny speck of dark blue surrounded by lighter blues all the way up to southern WI doesn't constitute reasoning of worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I haven't made any calls for this event, but like so many in the past we're going to see an impressive gradient LOT wide and i anticipate some enchanced banding which will tantilize but screw some just north. I think areas as far NW as RFD stand a good chance of failing to hit double digits, while far SE areas from IKK to TornadoTony will go well over a foot, to near 2 ft lakeshore NW Indiana. Some prelim calls around LOT, amounts not including 1-2" overrunning snows: Rockford-6-9" Schaumburg/Chistorm/Beast: 9-11" IMBY: 12-15" IKK: 14-18" Gary: 16-24" Not bad. but 06z would still be 12-15 inches for Chicago metro and even ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z NAM has a dark blue .5-.75 over the far NW suburbs. EDIT: i do think i confused Des Plaines with DeKalb, my bad. Don't bother with the NAM for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The NAM which is suffering from feedback issues that B-I made note of and one tiny speck of dark blue surrounded by lighter blues all the way up to southern WI doesn't constitute reasoning of worry. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z NAM has a dark blue .5-.75 over the far NW suburbs. EDIT: i do think i confused Des Plaines with DeKalb, my bad. Don't worry. All we need is a 25 mile shift in the storm track to the NW. Not even. Still 30hrs to go. I guess Izzy being conservative was the fear of a potential more narrow band southeast of Chicago than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree Do u ever sleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ill buy this model (which is better, ARW OR NMM? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6:40pm right outside my house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do u ever sleep? Weather and the atmosphere are addicting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 dscullom reminds me of someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do u ever sleep? You only learn through observation. Best thing one of my profs ever told me--as simple as it may seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 dscullom reminds me of someone. was going to warn you earlier with his 8 inch prediction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM feedback issue referenced by Stebo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NBC 5 calling for 1-2 feet for Chicago with 50mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 IZZI just did a web briefing for LOT http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NBC 5 calling for 1-2 feet for Chicago with 50mph gusts. SURE WOULD BE A BAD TIME FOR THEM TO BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM feedback issue referenced by Stebo. Thanks for the catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do u ever sleep? I look forward to you being a restricted poster again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I see csnavywx lurking--what are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Riding by the lake now, lots of ice. Should keep flood threat down, but drastically enhance blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I look forward to you being a restricted poster again. Son I use to run a weather board back in the day that was more popular than central here. Don't tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I see csnavywx lurking--what are your thoughts? 06Z NAM definitely having problems still. 06Z GFS still on track as is the Euro. SREFs still on track (minus a few the ETA members as usual). I'm liking the number of meso models that depict the NW curve in the track now. QPF is going to be a bit of a wild card it seems though, and I don't like diving in against the Euro, especially when it's been extremely steadfast on its solution for days on end now. However, cutting back just a tad (2-4 on totals) and upping the winds seems like a good place to go at this point. Still favoring the fast occlusion and NW hook scenario as opposed to the flat track, and still think we see a general 1.5 to 1.2 from ORD to DVN for liquid equivalent for the main storm. Gotta run, I'll be back in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z NAM definitely having problems still. 06Z GFS still on track as is the Euro. SREFs still on track (minus a few the ETA members as usual). I'm liking the number of meso models that depict the NW curve in the track now. QPF is going to be a bit of a wild card it seems though, and I don't like diving in against the Euro, especially when it's been extremely steadfast on its solution for days on end now. However, cutting back just a tad (2-4 on totals) and upping the winds seems like a good place to go at this point. Still favoring the fast occlusion and NW hook scenario as opposed to the flat track, and still think we see a general 1.5 to 1.2 from ORD to DVN for liquid equivalent for the main storm. Gotta run, I'll be back in a few hours. What do u think ratios will be for ORD? I am a bit confused with the 10 or 12:1 ratio when temps are progged to be lower/mid 20s Tuesday night. Well majority of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What do u think ratios will be for ORD? I am a bit confused with the 10 or 12:1 ratio when temps are progged to be lower/mid 20s Tuesday night. Well majority of storm. Here is a tidbit from the afd... "QPF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THEVARIOUS MODELS AND USING A REASONABLY CONSERVATIVE 10-12:1 SLRRESULTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-14 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT ALONE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z NAM definitely having problems still. 06Z GFS still on track as is the Euro. SREFs still on track (minus a few the ETA members as usual). I'm liking the number of meso models that depict the NW curve in the track now. QPF is going to be a bit of a wild card it seems though, and I don't like diving in against the Euro, especially when it's been extremely steadfast on its solution for days on end now. However, cutting back just a tad (2-4 on totals) and upping the winds seems like a good place to go at this point. Still favoring the fast occlusion and NW hook scenario as opposed to the flat track, and still think we see a general 1.5 to 1.2 from ORD to DVN for liquid equivalent for the main storm. Gotta run, I'll be back in a few hours. I couldn't agree more. Hoping you post more--enjoy your thoughts. Methinks you are a professor or grad student at NIU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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