Sidewinder Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like it moved 100 miles north from the last time I looked at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the b/w l res has 995 but the h res has it down to 992...weird How does the 06Z RGEM compare to the 0Z RGEM? Could you do a comparison of the same hrs--perhaps the last 48 hr map on the 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh man--batten down the hatches--we are in storm mode now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh man--batten down the hatches--we are in storm mode now. I have a feeling we are gonna see some changes throughout the day meaning and more stronger system with a more healthy deformation band and stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh man--batten down the hatches--we are in storm mode now. Have been since this evening or yesterday evening however you wanna look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the b/w l res has 995 but the h res has it down to 992...weird 991 on the color maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Have been since this evening or yesterday evening however you wanna look at it Right but he has a feeling hype something different might be happening today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 woah,def further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How does the 06Z RGEM compare to the 0Z RGEM? Could you do a comparison of the same hrs--perhaps the last 48 hr map on the 0Z? this what you mean? 0z 48 & 06z 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this what you mean? 0z 48 & 06z 42 You rock Prinsburg--thanks. You really need to get your stuff online soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DTX AFD with some nice changes/info in bold BIG WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS TO TAKE AIM AT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THE TIME WAS ADJUSTED BACKWARD BY 3 HOURS (NOW STARTS AT 4 PM) FOR THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/EURO/GEM. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD...WITH 10-15 INCHES FOR THE I-69 CORRIDOR COUNTIES SOUTH...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS STRONG UPPER WAVES DROP INTO BOTH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH AND RIDE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS LOOK SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW...CLIPPING IT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW...AND ALSO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...AND PREFER THE GFS/EURO/GEM. THIS CHANGES THE FORECAST LITTLE...ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES ABOVE. STEADY SNOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE. SUPPORT FOR HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LAYER OF FGEN BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB...WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND WITHIN AND BELOW A DEEP LAYER OF GOOD MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. VERY STRONG UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE DEEPER LIFT...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE PRESENT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY WE EXPECT TO LOSE JET SUPPORT AND FGEN FORCING...BUT GAIN VERY STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL ALSO SEE THE TROWAL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO LAKE ERIE. MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CENTERS AROUND AN INCREASE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR WEDNESDAY. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH ABOUT 18-21Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN WITH THE FORECAST. ANY FURTHER NORTHWEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE LOW TRACK WOULD NOT ONLY REDUCE SNOW LIQUID RATIOS BUT ALSO FAVOR MORE OF A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD...BOTH SERVING TO CUT INTO SNOW TOTALS. FEED OF VERY DRY AIR FROM ONTARIO (NORTHEAST WINDS) WILL ALSO CREATE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. RIGHT NOW THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAKE HURON...BUT IS STILL A FACTOR TO WATCH. ALSO COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION FLARE UP TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD LIMIT OUR MOISTURE FEED. FINALLY...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH TO DEVELOP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MIX DOWN A STRONGER CORE OF WINDS ALOFT. HAVE KEPT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FOR NOW TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT PRECIPITATION DRAG AND VERY SHARP LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT COULD LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL....BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE KEPT HEADLINES AT A WINTER STORM WATCH INSTEAD OF A BLIZZARD WATCH...BUT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS. STILL A LITTLE HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AS WELL...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE LOW CENTER AND POTENTIAL FOR THE TRACK TO SHIFT A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MKE: OBB AND THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FAVOR SNOW LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 18TO 1 FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL THROUGH 12Z/TUE. LAYER FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES INTO WESTERN CWA THIS EVE WHICH FALLS IN MODERATE OMEGA IN FAVORABLE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. THIS ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A TIME THIS EVENING COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS. NEXT SHIFT WL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHETHER WINTER STORM WARNING WOULD BE MORE APPROPRIATE. ALSO BEEFED UP AMOUNTS SEVERAL INCHES IN EAST DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTRIBUTION. DELTA-T INCREASES TO 17 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH. LAKE INDUCED CAPE NEAR 300 J BY LATE TNGT AT KSBM. WL NEED TO WATCH LAKESHORE AND NEXT TIER INLAND AS WELL FOR BEEFIER HEADLINES FOR LATE TNGT INTO TUE. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS JET PULLS OFF AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. INCREASING SHORT WAVE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WL ALSO DMSH FORCING AWAY FROM LAKE TUE MRNG AS WEAKENING 500MB PORT VORT SHIFTS EWD. WL POSTPONE WINTER WX ADVY FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY UNTIL LATER THIS MRNG. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKING FAIRLY WEAK ATTM. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COULD SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FROM THE SYNOPTIC EVENT...PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE MORNING. ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY...AT LEAST FOR INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM ANY INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THEN A BIT OF A LULL...BUT VERY SMALL AT THAT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE/700 TROUGH SHIFT EAST WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNWARD MOTION. QYUICK SHOT OF 500 RIDGING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MAJOR STORM SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN BEFORE THE BIG STORM MOVES IN WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT TRENDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN THE LAKE AND AIR AT AROUND 5000 FEET FORECASTED TO BE AS COLD AS 19C...WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE INSTABILTY. FETCH LOOKS VERY GOOD AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER SHOWS FAVORABLE VALUES AS WELL. NAM AND WRF20 BOTH SHOW A NE/SW ORIENTED BAND EXTENDING INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THIS SPECIFIC LAKE EFFECT EVENT DEPENDING ON WHERE BAND SETS UP AND HOW THE BAND WOULD ADD TO THE TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR EVENT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH BLIZZARD POTENTIAL LOOKING VERY HIGH FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST CWA. CANT RULE OUT MODELS LOCKED ONTO STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. NAM AND GFS BOTH EXPLODE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SE WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW 850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS PEAKING SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT HAVE IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 700-500 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI...THUS STRONG SLOPING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE VERY STRONG...700-300 MILLIBAR VALUES OVER 50 UNITS AT MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SUBTLE WEAKENING IN VALUES BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPICALLY...280-290K PLOTS SHOW MIXING RATIOS PUSHING 3 G/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. INGREDIENTS PLOTS FROM BOTH NAM SHOW BEST PVU...OVERLAP OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SATURATED EQUIVELANT POTENTIAL VORTICITY...TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT. EVENING SHIFT FORECASTER ADJUSTED SNOW RATIOS AFTER ASSESSING ROEBBER TECHNIQUE AND WILL USE THIS AND APPLY AN AVERAGE QPF TO COME UP WITH TOTALS...IN MANY PERIODS...HPC IS A NICE BLEND...BUT WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE EAST DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NORTHEAST 50-60 KNOT 850 MILLIBAR JET CORE...WITH 45-55 KNOTS AT 925 MILLIBARS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD WATCH ANOTHER SET OF COUNTIES WEST...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL ADD GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND 3-5/3-6 TYPE SNOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 woah,def further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z GFS rolling. Through 9 hours it could be argued it is a tad stronger with the southern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Baro this might close of early and just become vertically stacked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DVN: ...POTENTIALLY NEAR HISTORIC SNOW EVENT OVER SOUTHEAST 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TAP... OVERVIEW...KEY FEATURES ARE SHOWING UP WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM. SPECIFICALLY...ONSHORE DATA SUPPORTS NOWCAST TOOLS OF RAPID OCCLUSION TO OCCUR WITH PARENT SFC LOW TO SLIDE NE...THEN N...THEN BRIEFLY NW TO NEAR UIN ALLOWING FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS PRIMARY USE OF HI-RES ECMWF WITH FORCING INPUTS FROM GFS AND 06Z 80KM NAM-WRF INTO DAY 3. WENT WITH BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS BEYOND DAY 4. KEY COMMENT...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WILL PHASE AND NEARLY PERFECTLY WITH CANADIAN ALBERTA UPPER LOW...ARCTIC AIR...GULF MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES FOR MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF SNOW AND THUNDER-SNOW OVER AT LEAST SE 1/3 OF AREA. THIS IS ROUGHLY LIKE SEVERAL SMALL WAVES COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A BIG WAVE...ANOTHER DESCRIPTION IS CONSTRUCTIVE PHASING OR INTERFERENCE. IF SFC LOW OCCLUDES RAPIDLY ENOUGH...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEED TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WATCH DUE TO ISALLOBARIC PUSH TO HIGHER WIND VALUES OF 5+ MPH. OCCLUDING LOW WILL ALSO BE VITAL TO HOW MUCH THUNDER-SNOW WILL OCCUR IN FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND OCCLUDING SFC LOW WILL SLIDE TO NEAR STL AT TRIPLE POINT WITH PARENT OCCLUDED LOW TO NEAR UIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR OVER SE 1/2 OF AREA. THUNDER-SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH BY 21Z AND SLIDE TO AT LEAST HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR THROUGH 09Z. IT MAY APPROACH I-80 IN ILLINOIS. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH RESULTING IN NEARLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WENT THROUGH SEVERAL LOCAL CALCULATIONS AND CAME UP JUST SHORT OF UPGRADING WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. PASS THIS CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT AS A PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN OCCLUDING SFC LOW WILL BE KEY. SNOW AMOUNT GRADIENTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND WENT WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD VALUES WITH MOST SOLUTIONS QPF VALUES SUGGESTING POOR ENTROPY OR ENERGY DISSIPATION ISSUES. HEAVIEST SNOWS SHOULD OCCUR +/- 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A QUINCY ILLINOIS PEORIA ILLINOIS TO NEAR KANKAKEE LINE. SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 INCHES SOUTH OF A STERLING TO QUAD CITY TO FAIRFIELD LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE TO A GALENA TO CEDAR RAPIDS TO MARENGO LINE 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. NORTH OF THIS LINE SECOND LINE THE GRADIENT OF SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH THIS STORM SUGGESTED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 NEAR MANCHESTER AND INDEPENDENCE. FINAL POINT...SNOW VALUES OF OVER 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IF SFC OCCLUSION IS AGAIN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AND WILL PASS THIS TO DAY SHIFT ALONG FAVORED AFOREMENTIONED HEAVIEST SNOW TRACK. WILL EMPHASIZE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL THUNDER-SNOW IN CHIWSWDVN...OR NEXT WINTER STORM WATCH PRODUCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOT: ..MULTIFACETED DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON REGION... DISCUSSION SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).... THE HEADLINER OF WINTER EVENTS DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FIRST WE GET TO DEAL WITH AN OPENING ACT TONIGHT... LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WESTERN KS/PANHANDLE REGION. AS THIS SHORTWAVE RIDES SW FLOW INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOOK FOR SNOW TO BREAK OUT AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY AS A RESULT OF 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LACK OF WELL DEFINED FOCUS MAKES QPF FORECAST TONIGHT TRICKY...HOWEVER MODELS DO SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. SOUTHERN CWA WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER TEMP PROFILE AND WITH MODELS FREQUENTLY UNDERESTIMATING MAGNITUDE OF WARMING IN STRONG WAA REGIMES HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE CHC OF SLEET WITH THE SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR SLEET BOTH ARGUE FOR LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS SOUTH WHERE HIGHER QPF OCCURS. WHILE LOWER QPF AND HIGHER SLR'S FARTHER NORTH SUPPORT SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS AND GENERALLY STICKING WITH A 1-3 INCH FORECAST TONIGHT...THOUGH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS WOULDNT BE AT ALL SURPRISING. LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF/ENDING AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOPEFULLY ANY FRDZ WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ROAD CREWS A CHANCE TO CATCH A FEW HOURS OF SLEEP EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE BIG HULLABALOO STARTS TUESDAY. OVERALL AGREEMENT IN MODELS ON SYNOPTIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXCELLENT...WITH JUST THE 00Z NAM A LITTLE WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND LARGELY BEING DISCOUNTED. I CANNOT STRESS THIS POINT ENOUGH: MODEL ACCURACY AT THIS DISTANCE IS NOT SUCH THAT ITS WISE TO OFFER ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...SUCH AS THIS ONE...MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS TYPICALLY RESULT IN VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. EVEN WITH VERY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE FORECAST STORM TRACKS IN MODELS SHIFT BY 100 MILES OR MORE IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS FROM THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING/OCCLUDING LOWS. SUCH A SHIFT IN STORM TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS FORECAST TO GET 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ENDING UP DRY SLOTTED WITH DRASTICALLY LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...NO PLANS TO MAKE UPGRADE ANY OF THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...HERE ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE STORM AS THEY APPEAR NOW... SNOWFALL: INTENSE 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SUPPLYING THE CYCLONE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BOTH WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WITHIN THE DEVELOPING TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE. QPF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND USING A REASONABLY CONSERVATIVE 10-12:1 SLR RESULTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-14 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT ALONE. PROBABLY WORTH NOTING THAT CALCULATING/MEASURING THE ACTUAL SNOW:LIQUID RATIO THAT OCCURS MAY WELL BE DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF BLOWING/DRIFTING EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS COULD RIP DENDRITES APART...FURTHER LOWERING THE EFFECTIVE SNOW:LIQUID RATIO. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NE IL AS IMPROVING THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SET UP. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO NW INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN INTENSIFYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT ALONE COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN NE IL AND PROBABLY MORE THAN THAT IN NW INDIANA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH SNOWFALL GRADIENT AND WITH GFS /WRF-NAM BOTH SUGGESTING DRY INTRUSION MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA LATE TUES NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS OVER A FOOT CWA-WIDE IS MODERATE. WIND: DEEPENING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT KICKS IN WITH QUICK DEPARTURE AND FILLING OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY 50 MPH COMMON. HOWEVER...NEAR THE LAKE WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER...PROBABLY 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS: VERY HIGH QPF TOTALS RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT THE BLOW-ABILITY OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS. HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4SM SATISFYING THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER INCREASING THE THREAT OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW. WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WITH INTENSE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AS INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WORKS IN CONCERT WITH TREMENDOUS UPWARD MOTION RESULTING FROM FAST MOVING...RAPIDLY DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DRY INTRUSION WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8C/KM...WITH SOME OF THAT INSTABILITY LIKELY GETTING TAPPED INTO AND PROBABLY RESULTING IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LAKESHORE FLOODING: NORTHEAST WINDS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH MAKES LAKESHORE FLOODING A BIG CONCERN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM JAN 28TH SHOWED THAT ICE THAT HAD ACCUMULATED NEAR THE IL SHORE HAD BEEN BLOWN WELL OFFSHORE...AND APPEARED SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED IN NATURE EAST OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH THAT ICE WILL RETARD WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SHORE...BUT WITH 14-18FT SIGNIFICANT WAVES AND OCCASIONAL WAVES OVER 25FT OFFSHORE POTENTIALLY TAKING A TOLL ON ICE HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND HOIST A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ICE COULD MITIGATE THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT HARD TO SAY FOR SURE AND IF ICE ISNT A BIG DETERRENT THEN THE COASTAL FLOODING COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12zrgem is a hurriblizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOT: ..MULTIFACETED DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON REGION... LOT nailed it with the headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOT: ..MULTIFACETED DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON REGION... DISCUSSION SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).... THE HEADLINER OF WINTER EVENTS DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FIRST WE GET TO DEAL WITH AN OPENING ACT TONIGHT... LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING WESTERN KS/PANHANDLE REGION. AS THIS SHORTWAVE RIDES SW FLOW INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOOK FOR SNOW TO BREAK OUT AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY AS A RESULT OF 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LACK OF WELL DEFINED FOCUS MAKES QPF FORECAST TONIGHT TRICKY...HOWEVER MODELS DO SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN CWA FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. SOUTHERN CWA WILL ALSO HAVE WARMER TEMP PROFILE AND WITH MODELS FREQUENTLY UNDERESTIMATING MAGNITUDE OF WARMING IN STRONG WAA REGIMES HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE CHC OF SLEET WITH THE SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR SLEET BOTH ARGUE FOR LOWER SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS SOUTH WHERE HIGHER QPF OCCURS. WHILE LOWER QPF AND HIGHER SLR'S FARTHER NORTH SUPPORT SIMILAR SNOWFALL TOTALS AND GENERALLY STICKING WITH A 1-3 INCH FORECAST TONIGHT...THOUGH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS WOULDNT BE AT ALL SURPRISING. LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF/ENDING AND POSSIBLY EVEN TRANSITIONING TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOPEFULLY ANY FRDZ WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ROAD CREWS A CHANCE TO CATCH A FEW HOURS OF SLEEP EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE BIG HULLABALOO STARTS TUESDAY. OVERALL AGREEMENT IN MODELS ON SYNOPTIC DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXCELLENT...WITH JUST THE 00Z NAM A LITTLE WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND LARGELY BEING DISCOUNTED. I CANNOT STRESS THIS POINT ENOUGH: MODEL ACCURACY AT THIS DISTANCE IS NOT SUCH THAT ITS WISE TO OFFER ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...SUCH AS THIS ONE...MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS TYPICALLY RESULT IN VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. EVEN WITH VERY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE FORECAST STORM TRACKS IN MODELS SHIFT BY 100 MILES OR MORE IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS FROM THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING/OCCLUDING LOWS. SUCH A SHIFT IN STORM TRACK COULD RESULT IN AREAS FORECAST TO GET 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ENDING UP DRY SLOTTED WITH DRASTICALLY LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...NO PLANS TO MAKE UPGRADE ANY OF THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...HERE ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE STORM AS THEY APPEAR NOW... SNOWFALL: INTENSE 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SUPPLYING THE CYCLONE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BOTH WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WITHIN THE DEVELOPING TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE. QPF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND USING A REASONABLY CONSERVATIVE 10-12:1 SLR RESULTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-14 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT ALONE. PROBABLY WORTH NOTING THAT CALCULATING/MEASURING THE ACTUAL SNOW:LIQUID RATIO THAT OCCURS MAY WELL BE DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF BLOWING/DRIFTING EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS COULD RIP DENDRITES APART...FURTHER LOWERING THE EFFECTIVE SNOW:LIQUID RATIO. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN NE IL AS IMPROVING THERMAL PROFILES RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SET UP. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO NW INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN INTENSIFYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT ALONE COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN NE IL AND PROBABLY MORE THAN THAT IN NW INDIANA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH SNOWFALL GRADIENT AND WITH GFS /WRF-NAM BOTH SUGGESTING DRY INTRUSION MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA LATE TUES NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS OVER A FOOT CWA-WIDE IS MODERATE. WIND: DEEPENING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT KICKS IN WITH QUICK DEPARTURE AND FILLING OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY 50 MPH COMMON. HOWEVER...NEAR THE LAKE WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER...PROBABLY 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS: VERY HIGH QPF TOTALS RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT THE BLOW-ABILITY OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS. HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4SM SATISFYING THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER INCREASING THE THREAT OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW. WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WITH INTENSE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AS INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WORKS IN CONCERT WITH TREMENDOUS UPWARD MOTION RESULTING FROM FAST MOVING...RAPIDLY DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DRY INTRUSION WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8C/KM...WITH SOME OF THAT INSTABILITY LIKELY GETTING TAPPED INTO AND PROBABLY RESULTING IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LAKESHORE FLOODING: NORTHEAST WINDS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH MAKES LAKESHORE FLOODING A BIG CONCERN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM JAN 28TH SHOWED THAT ICE THAT HAD ACCUMULATED NEAR THE IL SHORE HAD BEEN BLOWN WELL OFFSHORE...AND APPEARED SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED IN NATURE EAST OF THE ILLINOIS SHORE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH THAT ICE WILL RETARD WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SHORE...BUT WITH 14-18FT SIGNIFICANT WAVES AND OCCASIONAL WAVES OVER 25FT OFFSHORE POTENTIALLY TAKING A TOLL ON ICE HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND HOIST A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ICE COULD MITIGATE THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT HARD TO SAY FOR SURE AND IF ICE ISNT A BIG DETERRENT THEN THE COASTAL FLOODING COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. IZZI That AFD has to be one of the best AFDs I have ever read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 8-14 better than nothing but thought would be more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GRR AFD .STORM TERM (437 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011) (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A WINTER STORM IMPACTING SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN LIMITED VARIATION IN STORM TRACK AND MODEL OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS FOR ALL COUNTIES OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA. TWO MAIN UPPER AIR PLAYERS CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST...WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. THE SOUTHERN FEATURE IS WORKING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEAR LAS VEGAS. GIVEN THE DISTANT LOCATIONS OF THESE FEATURES WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO IN EVOLUTION. MODELS PHASE THE TWO UPPER FEATURES INTO A WESTERN TROUGH TONIGHT...EJECTING THE SOUTHERN FEATURE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THE 500MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO NEAR TOLEDO. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHEAST OHIO. THE EUROPEAN REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACK. IT STILL APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN LINE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. 10-14 INCH SNOWS LOOK TO BE QUITE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO ALMA LINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW (AROUND 14 INCHES) LINING UP FROM BETWEEN SOUTH HAVEN AND SAUGATUCK NEAR GLENN EAST-NORTHEAST TO LANSING. THE FAR SOUTH...ALONG I94 EAST OF KALAMAZOO...MAY FLIRT WITH THE DRY SLOT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD KNOCK A COUPLE INCHES OFF THE TOTALS DOWN THERE. THE SNOW WILL BE A ONE/TWO PUNCH AS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT HEAVY SNOW WILL BE AIDED BY THE COUPLED UPPER JET WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA. INTO WEDNESDAY...HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY COME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR. NEXT CONCERN IS THE WIND AND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL REACH BLIZZARD CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BLIZZARD CRITERIA SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. FEEL WE ARE LOOKING AT A PRETTY SOLID 15 TO 30 MPH WIND MUCH OF THE TIME OF THE WATCH. GUSTS SHOULD BE PUSHING UP INTO THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. BLIZZARD CRITERIA IS STRINGENT AND IS AS FOLLOWS...SUSTAINED WIND OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 35 MPH ACCOMPANIED BY FALLING OR BLOWING SNOW FREQUENTLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE. WE WILL VERY LIKELY HIT THE QUARTER MILE FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE...THE REAL QUESTION MARK IS THE 35 MPH WINDS. AGAIN AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE IN OUR AREA TO GO BLIZZARD WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS A CONCERN. WE ARE EXPECTING BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS THOUGH GIVEN A FOOT OF SNOW AND WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. WHITEOUTS...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS STORM WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH FOOT SNOWFALLS NOT HAPPENING VERY OFTEN. COMBINED WITH THE STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE CLEARING ROADS AND DRIVEWAYS VERY DIFFICULT UNTIL WE GET TO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME CAVEATS REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL 36 HOURS OUT. THE COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION OUT WEST IS STILL A CONCERN AND EXACT TRACK IS YET UNKNOWN AS THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL 24 HOURS FROM EVEN MAKING A TURN TO THE NORTH OUT OF TX. THE DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME. THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND A SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW TRACK ARE STILL A BIT TROUBLESOME AS WELL. MODEL CONSISTENCY THOUGH IS WHY WATCHES ARE IN PLACE AND OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS HOWEVER TO PROVIDE TWEAKS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WARNING PHASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That AFD has to be one of the best AFDs I have ever read. agreed, Kudos to the writer (no doubt they have extra mets working right now and next several days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 New HPC snowfall/ice accural maps are out... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z GFS through 30 nearly identical--may end up a tad N/NW although it is also a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That AFD has to be one of the best AFDs I have ever read. Written by Izzi...one of the best around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 prins, what does the new rgem show for lincoln/omaha (qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 443 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...POTENT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION... .A WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS WHERE THE MIX OCCURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL WITH THE FALLING SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AREA. HEAVY SNOW WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF ROUTE 24...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 18 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF OVER 20 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH DRIFTS POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERAL FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS. BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS NORTH OF US 24...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ZERO AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS...WITH ROAD CLOSURES POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AS CURRENT FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS AND STORM IMPACTS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE. PERSONS IN THE AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...ESPECIALLY PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Written by Izzi...one of the best around. Yeah his AFDs preceding any major event whether winter or severe weather are always savable material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 prins, what does the new rgem show for lincoln/omaha (qpf) my extracted qpf script hasn't run yet so don't have exact total yet but here's the 48 total qpf map to get an idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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