Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 People have no clue lol. I especially love "its too late in the season"...it is only the MIDPOINT of winter! LMAO that is a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the nam is way to cold is what you are saying? I would stick with the 12Z guidance for now unless everything else starts coming in and suggesting such a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 probably the most insane images I have ever seen for a 6hr period, rivals your storms out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At least here at YYZ this run is significantly slower. 12z NAM already had more than 1/2 an inch of QPF down by 12z Wed. 18z hasn't even started the snow yet. B_I, is the phase shift error possibly causing the NAM to slow down the progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Alright, I'm gonna bite after that 12z guidance. ORD 22-28" At least two gusts to 50KT (from ASOS/official obs) At least four gusts to 45KT Max sustained at 34KT. Blizz criteria met. 3-5" inital WAA 18-24" from the main storm. RFD gets 19-25" At least 1 gust to 50KT At least 3 gusts to 45KT Max sustained at 30KT Blizz criteria met. The blizzard potential here is what is freakish. I have not seen a sustained blizzard threat like this across that region and yours ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No the map is not messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At least here at YYZ this run is significantly slower. 12z NAM already had more than 1/2 an inch of QPF down by 12z Wed. 18z hasn't even started the snow yet. B_I, is the phase shift error possibly causing the NAM to slow down the progression? Yeah--it is definitely delayed in the height field. Everything is thrown off as a result--I would just toss it for now. I would be shocked if the 18Z GFS came in with the same height field changes as the NAM. The entire trough is shifted W on the NAM a good 100-200 miles as early as 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Alright, I'm gonna bite after that 12z guidance. ORD 22-28" At least two gusts to 50KT (from ASOS/official obs) At least four gusts to 45KT Max sustained at 34KT. Blizz criteria met. 3-5" inital WAA 18-24" from the main storm. RFD gets 19-25" At least 1 gust to 50KT At least 3 gusts to 45KT Max sustained at 30KT Blizz criteria met. I agree with these, really think we got a shot at breaking the all time record of 23" I'm so giddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No the map is not messed up. Any one have Mother Nature's number so I can call and beg for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah--it is definitely delayed in the height field. Everything is thrown off as a result--I would just toss it for now. I would be shocked if the 18Z GFS came in with the same height field changes as the NAM. The entire trough is shifted W on the NAM a good 100-200 miles as early as 48 hours. Wow. I didn't compare H5 between the two runs so I had no idea it was that big a discrepancy. I'll toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Absolutely unbelievable if those precip amounts verify over such a large geographical area. Think of the spring flooding potential...but that's another thread. Heads up here locally expecting at least 18-20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I agree with these, really think we got a shot at breaking the all time record of 23" I'm so giddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 STL going with 1 inch of ice and 5 inches of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow. I didn't compare H5 between the two runs so I had no idea it was that big a discrepancy. I'll toss it. NAM height field through 48 hours on the 18Z compared to the 12Z at 54. That is not very realistic in terms of the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 absolutely epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 STL going with 1 inch of ice and 5 inches of snow here. Probably a good call. I'd throw some sleet in there too. Worst kind of icing is where some sleet is mixed in, imo, as the hydrometeors are already partially frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 15z SREFs are hot hot hot in a really cold snowy kind of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1.50-1.75" QPF over north central IL in 12hrs. Really? These numbers are just SICK. I think I may have to bump my earlier calls for 7-10" for the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 KC goes with the first storm warnings for a light glaze of ice and then 8-12 inches plus of snow for their region. Watch the warnings start to fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like Indy gets into some heavy snow at the tail end of that run. Too bad it is a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Probably a good call. I'd throw some sleet in there too. Worst kind of icing is where some sleet is mixed in, imo, as the hydrometeors are already partially frozen. I know..the ground is frozen too..the top will be when this starts....and we wont leave the upper 20s... this could be even worse. I am going with .75 inches of ice right now and 6 inches of snow and sleet. either could go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baro, what impact does that have on the track? Would it make go farther SE because of it being a bit slower and it allows the colder air to move SE faster and occlude faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No the map is not messed up. sure it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like: "Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know." or "I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time." "Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." .... "National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about." I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this.... This is one reason why I don't like the recent waterdowned pussified definition of a blizzard...we had a "blizzard" warning here in december for 4 inches of snow and winds of about 40 mph...now if this verfies this is a BLIZZARD like the late storms of the 1970's the 18z NAM is almost impossible to believe over 2 inches of precip here with great ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1.50-1.75" QPF over north central IL in 12hrs. Really? These numbers are just SICK. I think I may have to bump my earlier calls for 7-10" for the QC. Gino put something on his FB that showed ORD getting 15" in 6hr...hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is one reason why I don't like the recent waterdowned pussified definition of a blizzard...we had a "blizzard" warning here in december for 4 inches of snow and winds of about 40 mph...now if this verfies this is a BLIZZARD like the late storms of the 1970's the 18z NAM is almost impossible to believe over 2 inches of precip here with great ratios damn liberals. sorry couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hahaha Alek props to you for that comment I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baro, what impact does that have on the track? Would it make go farther SE because of it being a bit slower and it allows the colder air to move SE faster and occlude faster? Timing is definitely changed and the ptype over regions where things are relatively close would be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 damn liberals. sorry couldn't resist. I heard caterpillar was shipping jobs overseas because of watered-down blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM height field through 48 hours on the 18Z compared to the 12Z at 54. That is not very realistic in terms of the changes. per HPC the issue was the 12z NAM?? PREFERENCE: BEFORE 00Z WED...EQUAL BLEND GFS/ECMWF AFTER 00Z WED...2/3 GFS TO 1/3 NAM THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. ADDITIONALLY... ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COMPARISONS WITH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NAM INITIALIZES THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH ABOUT 50 NM WEST OF ITS ACTUAL POSITION WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO ITS SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BEFORE EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE GFS. Thus i would assume it has corrected itself back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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