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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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Alright, I'm gonna bite after that 12z guidance.

ORD 22-28"

At least two gusts to 50KT (from ASOS/official obs)

At least four gusts to 45KT

Max sustained at 34KT.

Blizz criteria met.

3-5" inital WAA

18-24" from the main storm.

RFD gets 19-25"

At least 1 gust to 50KT

At least 3 gusts to 45KT

Max sustained at 30KT

Blizz criteria met.

The blizzard potential here is what is freakish. I have not seen a sustained blizzard threat like this across that region and yours ever.

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At least here at YYZ this run is significantly slower. 12z NAM already had more than 1/2 an inch of QPF down by 12z Wed. 18z hasn't even started the snow yet.

B_I, is the phase shift error possibly causing the NAM to slow down the progression?

Yeah--it is definitely delayed in the height field. Everything is thrown off as a result--I would just toss it for now. I would be shocked if the 18Z GFS came in with the same height field changes as the NAM. The entire trough is shifted W on the NAM a good 100-200 miles as early as 48 hours.

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Alright, I'm gonna bite after that 12z guidance.

ORD 22-28"

At least two gusts to 50KT (from ASOS/official obs)

At least four gusts to 45KT

Max sustained at 34KT.

Blizz criteria met.

3-5" inital WAA

18-24" from the main storm.

RFD gets 19-25"

At least 1 gust to 50KT

At least 3 gusts to 45KT

Max sustained at 30KT

Blizz criteria met.

I agree with these, really think we got a shot at breaking the all time record of 23"

I'm so giddy :thumbsup:

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Yeah--it is definitely delayed in the height field. Everything is thrown off as a result--I would just toss it for now. I would be shocked if the 18Z GFS came in with the same height field changes as the NAM. The entire trough is shifted W on the NAM a good 100-200 miles as early as 48 hours.

Wow. I didn't compare H5 between the two runs so I had no idea it was that big a discrepancy. I'll toss it.

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Probably a good call.

I'd throw some sleet in there too.

Worst kind of icing is where some sleet is mixed in, imo, as the hydrometeors are already partially frozen.

I know..the ground is frozen too..the top will be when this starts....and we wont leave the upper 20s...

this could be even worse.

I am going with .75 inches of ice right now and 6 inches of snow and sleet.

either could go up.

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Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like:

"Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know."

or

"I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time."

"Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." ....

"National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about."

I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this....

This is one reason why I don't like the recent waterdowned pussified definition of a blizzard...we had a "blizzard" warning here in december for 4 inches of snow and winds of about 40 mph...now if this verfies this is a BLIZZARD like the late storms of the 1970's

the 18z NAM is almost impossible to believe over 2 inches of precip here with great ratios

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This is one reason why I don't like the recent waterdowned pussified definition of a blizzard...we had a "blizzard" warning here in december for 4 inches of snow and winds of about 40 mph...now if this verfies this is a BLIZZARD like the late storms of the 1970's

the 18z NAM is almost impossible to believe over 2 inches of precip here with great ratios

damn liberals.

sorry couldn't resist.

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NAM height field through 48 hours on the 18Z compared to the 12Z at 54.

0f2ec534bd85df7cd99234adef12d1d8.gif

That is not very realistic in terms of the changes.

per HPC the issue was the 12z NAM?? :unsure:

PREFERENCE: BEFORE 00Z WED...EQUAL BLEND GFS/ECMWF

AFTER 00Z WED...2/3 GFS TO 1/3 NAM

THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING

CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE

GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. ADDITIONALLY...

ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COMPARISONS WITH OTHER MODEL

GUIDANCE...THE NAM INITIALIZES THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH ABOUT 50

NM WEST OF ITS ACTUAL POSITION WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO ITS

SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BEFORE

EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE GFS.

Thus i would assume it has corrected itself back?

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