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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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Unfortunately everybody can't win, that's just the nature of the beast. Reality is the jackpot will be north and west of here, and I'm cool with that. I'd be happy with at least 6" of snow after seeing all the flips and flops on the models. This storm has probably taken a few months off my life. At this point I just want it to get underway, you know? :)

Sorry this reply is so late.

That's the crappy part of a lot of the bigger storms up here, not a lot of folks can win all snow and its just the nature of the beast like you said. Might be better if we all lived up and down the east coast, but even then its not a guarantee in the least we all cash in on the big ones especially close to the coast and south towards the MA, but when most do cash in its pretty special. Odds have to say, largely they cash in more as a whole than us in the MW... But would we give up our living to live in the crap hole of, DC and ect. big cities? I would rather roll the dice living the good life in the midwest without all hustle and bustle and jammed packed life with a true 4 seasons over anybody out east.

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after seeing the graphics they get and programs and such, makes me not want to use what I normally use to forecast before.

Have been there before to see everything but to look at stuff, so many different things to look at.

How much didt they tell u in terms of accumulations for storm?

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Great morning afd from IND. Here is a short snip of expected impact:

WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF INDIANA ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS COULD RESULT IN DEVASTATING CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. THE COMBINATION OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. GIVEN THE LARGE EXTENT OF THE AREA THAT MAY BE EFFECTED...LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES APPEAR POSSIBLE.

The Great Ice Storm of 2011

There will be nothing great about it except the scale of devastation...

I've got my generator ready to go. Oil changed and gassed up.

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06Z NAM having issues--it did come inline a bit with the other 0Z guidance with the height field and a more organized wave--but it seems to be having huge convective feedback issues early on in the cyclogenesis process. This slows the early cyclone development and the positive feedback loop is much delayed as a result. The NAM is still having issues...

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Unfortunately everybody can't win, that's just the nature of the beast. Reality is the jackpot will be north and west of here, and I'm cool with that. I'd be happy with at least 6" of snow after seeing all the flips and flops on the models. This storm has probably taken a few months off my life. At this point I just want it to get underway, you know? :)

Sorry this reply is so late.

That's the sad part of a lot of the bigger storms up here, not a lot of folks can win all snow and its just the nature of the beast like you said. Might be better if we all lived up and down the east coast, but even then its not a guarantee in the least we all cash in on the big ones especially close to the coast and south towards the MA, but when most do cash in its pretty special. Odds have to say, largely they cash in more as a whole than us in the MW... But would we give up our living to live in the crap hole of, DC and ect. big cities? I would rather roll the dice living the good life in the midwest without all hustle and bustle and jammed packed life with a true 4 seasons over a good percentage of the MA and EC.

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What is convective feedback? It is when deep moist convection feeds back negatively to the dynamic fields. Why does this matter? Note in this animation how the leading wave can't "develop" owing to the anomalous looking region of anticyclonic vorticity due to deep, moist convection firing off in OK/TX just ahead of the leading shortwave. This results in less synoptic forcing from DPVA and a slower developing cyclone. This is convective feedback at its worst.

fc3565c19059d53e0b851f1d33476bfc.gif

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What is convective feedback? It is when deep moist convection feeds back negatively to the dynamic fields. Why does this matter? Note in this animation how the leading wave can't "develop" owing to the anomalous looking region of negative vorticity just ahead of the leading shortvwave owing to convection. This results in less synoptic forcing from DPVA and a slower cyclone. This is convective feedback at its worst.

fc3565c19059d53e0b851f1d33476bfc.gif

So what u trying to say here?

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The NAM is still having issues and the flat track is unrealistic. It doesn't get much deeper than 1000 hpa and it a huge outlier amongst all guidance--and the convective feedback early on is the reason why--or at least a big reason.

Yeah I know what you mean. NAM tends to do that alot.

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Well folks I'm off to bed dreaming of heavy, epic snowfall. Hopefully I wake up to more good news. I am pulling for the folks in the freezing rain zone, you are in my thoughts. Get prepared and stay safe!!! Should be seeing some light snow start here in the next 4 or 5 hours and its on.

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Not a lot--but sometimes it rears its ugly head more than others. Sometimes the NAM is a terrific model--other times not. It definitely is not here.

I see what u are saying but it doesent seem that much any difference with other model guidience besides that convective issue. I am only concerned about 2 things. 1)QPF will trim as it develops 2)the MAX will be south of me.

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I see what u are saying but it doesent seem that much any difference with other model guidience besides that convective issue. I am only concerned about 2 things. 1)QPF will trim as it develops 2)the MAX will be south of me.

It is a big difference--and when forecasting these things need to be considered for public safety issues. Huge difference between 65+ mph winds mixing down and 45-50 for northern IL and for many other regions. NAM as is is much weaker in the wind field because of the aforementioned issues.

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It is a big difference--and when forecasting these things need to be considered for public safety issues. Huge difference between 65+ mph winds mixing down and 45-50 for northern IL and for many other regions. NAM as is is much weaker in the wind field because of the aforementioned issues.

So your basically thinking a more developed low will happen?

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So your basically thinking a more developed low will happen?

Yeah much lower given the extreme low level theta-e regime and the overall ridiculous baroclinic zone. The wave aloft is pretty beefy too. The RGEM is too ridiculous--but both the GFS/Euro even tank this down to 991/992 while the NAM is weak and flat in its track around 1000 hpa. UK is also bonkers and prolly a tad too amped. But it does seem like a classic NW tracking rapid occlusion type system with a massive dryslot.

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Yeah much lower given the extreme low level theta-e regime and the overall ridiculous baroclinic zone. The wave aloft is pretty beefy too. The RGEM is too ridiculous--but both the GFS/Euro even tank this down to 991/992 while the NAM is weak and flat in its track around 1000 hpa. UK is also bonkers and prolly a tad too amped. But it does seem like a classic NW tracking rapid occlusion type system with a massive dryslot.

That may help and enhance the defo band and pro-long it in some areas.

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Intensity changes and a lack of early cyclone development can result in big changes--including the overall formation and shape of things such as the CCB/defo band. NAM for now is just having too many issues run-by-run.

I think the H-RES WRF AND ARW etc.. will be interesting to look at tonight.

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