baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 anyone? That is kind of a broad question since parts of those states will be seeing a lot of snow either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM GFS Seemed like u had a good time there huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Seemed like u had a good time there huh? after seeing the graphics they get and programs and such, makes me not want to use what I normally use to forecast before. Have been there before to see everything but to look at stuff, so many different things to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Unfortunately everybody can't win, that's just the nature of the beast. Reality is the jackpot will be north and west of here, and I'm cool with that. I'd be happy with at least 6" of snow after seeing all the flips and flops on the models. This storm has probably taken a few months off my life. At this point I just want it to get underway, you know? Sorry this reply is so late. That's the crappy part of a lot of the bigger storms up here, not a lot of folks can win all snow and its just the nature of the beast like you said. Might be better if we all lived up and down the east coast, but even then its not a guarantee in the least we all cash in on the big ones especially close to the coast and south towards the MA, but when most do cash in its pretty special. Odds have to say, largely they cash in more as a whole than us in the MW... But would we give up our living to live in the crap hole of, DC and ect. big cities? I would rather roll the dice living the good life in the midwest without all hustle and bustle and jammed packed life with a true 4 seasons over anybody out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 after seeing the graphics they get and programs and such, makes me not want to use what I normally use to forecast before. Have been there before to see everything but to look at stuff, so many different things to look at. How much didt they tell u in terms of accumulations for storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great morning afd from IND. Here is a short snip of expected impact: WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF INDIANA ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS COULD RESULT IN DEVASTATING CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. THE COMBINATION OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. GIVEN THE LARGE EXTENT OF THE AREA THAT MAY BE EFFECTED...LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES APPEAR POSSIBLE. The Great Ice Storm of 2011 There will be nothing great about it except the scale of devastation... I've got my generator ready to go. Oil changed and gassed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z NAM having issues--it did come inline a bit with the other 0Z guidance with the height field and a more organized wave--but it seems to be having huge convective feedback issues early on in the cyclogenesis process. This slows the early cyclone development and the positive feedback loop is much delayed as a result. The NAM is still having issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Unfortunately everybody can't win, that's just the nature of the beast. Reality is the jackpot will be north and west of here, and I'm cool with that. I'd be happy with at least 6" of snow after seeing all the flips and flops on the models. This storm has probably taken a few months off my life. At this point I just want it to get underway, you know? Sorry this reply is so late. That's the sad part of a lot of the bigger storms up here, not a lot of folks can win all snow and its just the nature of the beast like you said. Might be better if we all lived up and down the east coast, but even then its not a guarantee in the least we all cash in on the big ones especially close to the coast and south towards the MA, but when most do cash in its pretty special. Odds have to say, largely they cash in more as a whole than us in the MW... But would we give up our living to live in the crap hole of, DC and ect. big cities? I would rather roll the dice living the good life in the midwest without all hustle and bustle and jammed packed life with a true 4 seasons over a good percentage of the MA and EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What is convective feedback? It is when deep moist convection feeds back negatively to the dynamic fields. Why does this matter? Note in this animation how the leading wave can't "develop" owing to the anomalous looking region of anticyclonic vorticity due to deep, moist convection firing off in OK/TX just ahead of the leading shortwave. This results in less synoptic forcing from DPVA and a slower developing cyclone. This is convective feedback at its worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice lake enhancement for ORD: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_pcp_054l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What is convective feedback? It is when deep moist convection feeds back negatively to the dynamic fields. Why does this matter? Note in this animation how the leading wave can't "develop" owing to the anomalous looking region of negative vorticity just ahead of the leading shortvwave owing to convection. This results in less synoptic forcing from DPVA and a slower cyclone. This is convective feedback at its worst. So what u trying to say here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So what u trying to say here? The NAM is still having issues and the flat track is unrealistic. It doesn't get much deeper than 1000 hpa and it a huge outlier amongst all guidance--and the convective feedback early on is the reason why--or at least a big reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The NAM is still having issues and the flat track is unrealistic. It doesn't get much deeper than 1000 hpa and it a huge outlier amongst all guidance--and the convective feedback early on is the reason why--or at least a big reason. Yeah I know what you mean. NAM tends to do that alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well folks I'm off to bed dreaming of heavy, epic snowfall. Hopefully I wake up to more good news. I am pulling for the folks in the freezing rain zone, you are in my thoughts. Get prepared and stay safe!!! Should be seeing some light snow start here in the next 4 or 5 hours and its on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah I know what you mean. NAM tends to do that alot. Not a lot--but sometimes it rears its ugly head more than others. Sometimes the NAM is a terrific model--other times not. It definitely is not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not a lot--but sometimes it rears its ugly head more than others. Sometimes the NAM is a terrific model--other times not. It definitely is not here. I see what u are saying but it doesent seem that much any difference with other model guidience besides that convective issue. I am only concerned about 2 things. 1)QPF will trim as it develops 2)the MAX will be south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I see what u are saying but it doesent seem that much any difference with other model guidience besides that convective issue. I am only concerned about 2 things. 1)QPF will trim as it develops 2)the MAX will be south of me. It is a big difference--and when forecasting these things need to be considered for public safety issues. Huge difference between 65+ mph winds mixing down and 45-50 for northern IL and for many other regions. NAM as is is much weaker in the wind field because of the aforementioned issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The calm before the storm. Here a picture of my outside I took 30 seconds ago. Just a test again. Will be snapshotting alot of these photos when the prime storm comes. Camera sucks at night but thats what you when u get it off ebay for 0.01 from China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It is a big difference--and when forecasting these things need to be considered for public safety issues. Huge difference between 65+ mph winds mixing down and 45-50 for northern IL and for many other regions. NAM as is is much weaker in the wind field because of the aforementioned issues. So your basically thinking a more developed low will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Baro, I know what you mean and I was suspicous of that. I was wondering why that ugly cut-off in central il at 54hr I believe. Lead wave looks very sharp a head of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So your basically thinking a more developed low will happen? Yeah much lower given the extreme low level theta-e regime and the overall ridiculous baroclinic zone. The wave aloft is pretty beefy too. The RGEM is too ridiculous--but both the GFS/Euro even tank this down to 991/992 while the NAM is weak and flat in its track around 1000 hpa. UK is also bonkers and prolly a tad too amped. But it does seem like a classic NW tracking rapid occlusion type system with a massive dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 In case u looked past it: Baro, I know what you mean and I was suspicous of that. I was wondering why that ugly cut-off in central il at 54hr I believe. Lead wave looks very sharp a head of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah much lower given the extreme low level theta-e regime and the overall ridiculous baroclinic zone. The wave aloft is pretty beefy too. The RGEM is too ridiculous--but both the GFS/Euro even tank this down to 991/992 while the NAM is weak and flat in its track around 1000 hpa. UK is also bonkers and prolly a tad too amped. But it does seem like a classic NW tracking rapid occlusion type system with a massive dryslot. That may help and enhance the defo band and pro-long it in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No 36-42r I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That may help and enhance the defo band and pro-long it in some areas. Intensity changes and a lack of early cyclone development can result in big changes--including the overall formation and shape of things such as the CCB/defo band. NAM for now is just having too many issues run-by-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06z nam clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z RGEM at 48hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Intensity changes and a lack of early cyclone development can result in big changes--including the overall formation and shape of things such as the CCB/defo band. NAM for now is just having too many issues run-by-run. I think the H-RES WRF AND ARW etc.. will be interesting to look at tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z RGEM at 48hrs: Is this new? Wow thats almost in central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z RGEM at 48hrs: the b/w l res has 995 but the h res has it down to 992...weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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