Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 "1999" came on the radio on New Years eve in 1998...it is one of those weird memories that sticks with me. I ended up getting blasted with the biggest blizzard of my life right after that. Fast forward to 2/12/2007. I'm in the car and the song comes on the radio. I got hammered with the second biggest blizzard the next day. Hmm well it is time for you to get in your car, and if Purple Rain comes on then I don't know what to tell ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks so much man.. I feel pretty guilty ever time that NW trend starts rearing its head and that's why I have been awful quiet in the thread... I hate when the NW trends shoots others down from something we all can't get enough of and the thread shrinks to nothing almost in the past.. Hope to hell LAF and me can find a happy medium at worst.. All I wanted is 6-8" and I'll take that like a ma if it helps others and the Hoosier crew. I'd love a huge hit but whatever will be will be. I'm just glad there's actually a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS ens mean matches up very close to the 0z EURO op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Lol I know who Prince is, I'm not that young Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hoosier, How much you think for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Lol I know who Prince is, I'm not that young I actually thought Prince was the name of a snow blower or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We're set! Remember our conversation earlier in the winter when we were getting the December blitz? The sky is the limit at this point. With that said, I am going to head back to the hometown Tuesday morning after class. Hopefully we stay all snow up there. Yes, the sky is the limit. I have a very good feeling about most of February too. Good luck back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Unfortunately everybody can't win, that's just the nature of the beast. Reality is the jackpot will be north and west of here, and I'm cool with that. I'd be happy with at least 6" of snow after seeing all the flips and flops on the models. This storm has probably taken a few months off my life. At this point I just want it to get underway, you know? Take a day (or three) off and go relax with some brew in IKK And, I kind-of agree about wanting to get it underway. However, tracking a storm is at least 50% of the fun, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hoosier, How much you think for ORD? 20-30", favoring 20-25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Take a day (or three) off and go relax with some brew in IKK And, I kind-of agree about wanting to get it underway. However, tracking a storm is at least 50% of the fun, right? If I could get back here by Wednesday morning I would. I don't see that being possible right now. 's will be flowing here regardless. But yes the tracking part is fun, but the actual event is the bees knees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 20-30", favoring 20-25" Yeah right now id be going for an 18-25" total and fine tune it as we get closer, although with the winds it gets to be a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 20-30", favoring 20-25" 23.0" is the magic number to beat... If I could get back here by Wednesday morning I would. I don't see that being possible right now. 's will be flowing here regardless. But yes the tracking part is fun, but the actual event is the bees knees. Yeah, I'm not going to attempt a return till Friday. Unless, of course, things go awry and we end up having much less snow than is currently expected. Quite possibly the most interesting potential that I've seen yet. This may be the one I tell the grandkids about (if all works for the best). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 watch out for convective snows from STL to LAF...and dynamical cooling with it causing heavy heavy snow instead of sleet or zr at times. bank on it.. Good night and good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06 nam comming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 watch out for convective snows from STL to LAF...and dynamical cooling with it causing heavy heavy snow instead of sleet or zr at times. bank on it.. Good night and good luck That is one of the complicating factors in the forecast. Heavy precip could try to flip it to snow but we all know how WAA is often underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Lol I know who Prince is, I'm not that young I actually thought Prince was the name of a snow blower or something. I thought he was talking about the TV show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Unreal how tight the gradient is on the east side of the storm. I'm sure there will be some surprises and some disappointments on the east side of this thing. Id like to see some sort of shift to at least get me in the zr. Not looking likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure if we are going to start an obs thread or not--but light snow in the Twin Cities now. Enough for 1/2" of sparkly powder thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let's see if the NAM gets a clue this run. The southern stream wave through 6 hours is noticeably farther S than the 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So with what looks like a quick occlusion, would i see right that most of IL/IN/OH could see decent back side snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure if we are going to start an obs thread or not--but light snow in the Twin Cities now. Enough for 1/2" of sparkly powder thus far. Obs threads are region stat padders If we are going to start one though I think saving it for the main show would probably be the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like its corrected itself through hr 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Obs threads are region stat padders If we are going to start one though I think saving it for the main show would probably be the best. Yeah prolly a good idea. Definitely will want to keep those for this historic storm. I remember how crazy the Northern Plains blizzard got--this will make that look like a rather minor event in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z NAm through 21 a tad more S with the southern stream SW and a tad more intense. It will likely be closer to the other 0Z guidance as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 back from LOT quote of the night from there is from Paul Merzlock who is a great winter weather forecaster "This is the most impressive setup I've seen in ages, reminds me of the 1979 storm. was really sweet just watching him and Gino take a look at the new runs and such. Since LOT has already "scared everyone" according to Gino about big amounts and such he spent some time looking for things that could hamper totals. He was worried about a possible last second shift either way and the dry slot which IMO isn't a big concern for us right now but he was looking at mean RH between 500mb-700mb, looked a bit closer getting up here. They are just as big of weenies as we are looking at snowfall amounts laughing and being giddy and swearing as well due to how impressive this looks. As for the models...I'd like to the NAM come back with the curved track. The GFS looks pretty good track wise and the Euro trended down on qpf amounts up here. Can't wait for the new 12z runs tomorrow. Lastly, that 48hr sim ref off the NMM is gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure if we are going to start an obs thread or not--but light snow in the Twin Cities now. Enough for 1/2" of sparkly powder thus far. just over 3" here baro...not sure we'll make the 10" forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just over 3" here baro...not sure we'll make the 10" forecasted. You have another 24 hours to go though--3 inches already isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So with what looks like a quick occlusion, would i see right that most of IL/IN/OH could see decent back side snow? anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great morning afd from IND. Here is a short snip of expected impact: WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF INDIANA ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS COULD RESULT IN DEVASTATING CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. THE COMBINATION OF AN INCH OF ICE ALONG WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. GIVEN THE LARGE EXTENT OF THE AREA THAT MAY BE EFFECTED...LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGES APPEAR POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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