cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So the Euro sounds like it's still holding serve with a UIN-PIA-IKK line for heaviest snow. Yep, rock solid. Hate to sound like a model humper, especially since the event hasn't even occurred yet, but the Euro has been extremely consistent with this thing for the past 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How good is Euro with exact 2M temps? It keeps taking us above freezing faster than the GFS/NAM thus much less ice. Also, I thought I heard in the past the Euro isn't as good within 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Careful, that's going to end up in someone's signature for all time. Milf's would be the furthest thing from my mind and a certain forecaster from Chicago. And a few posters here, but I digress. My other famous typo at the other forum as a snot storm. Back to the snow forecast/storm forecast John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yep, rock solid. Hate to sound like a model humper, especially since the event hasn't even occurred yet, but the Euro has been extremely consistent with this thing for the past 3-4 days. But yes, it's been especially consistent on the fringe too, which from past experiences with any model usually isn't the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MSP: 0.28" OMA: 0.55" DSM: 1.31" JLN: 1.72" TUL: 1.73" OKC: 1.10" STL: 1.66" PAH: 0.90" PIA: 1.75" DVN: 1.58" LSE: 0.38" MSN: 1.14" MKE: 1.53" FLD: 0.79" ORD: 1.54" LAF: 1.47" IND: 1.31" GRR: 1.05" DTW: 1.13" DAY: 1.08" CMH: 0.99" YYZ: 0.87" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Up til now I've just used a blend of DSM and DVN to get an idea of Euro qpf.... but with the storm approaching could I please get a number for CID? 1.67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You guys line up pretty well with what we get down here. I think we'll both do pretty well man. I'm thinking our areas pick up 10-15" total between tomorrow and Wednesday. You guys may do even better with some lake enhancement. Its been a fight I never even wanted to get into from the get go for this storm... The path it was coming from and I figured enough blocking or push to the east to get snow up here was a blind hailmary TD at best and thats being genoerous. Then it got slowly more interesting by the day and until the high rise at 12z today and the MKE office got the best of me. Then came the freefall from 18z on tonight, and then looking at hr 42 on the euro it was another here we go again moment and squealing like a burnt weenie on the grill.. This is not going to get any easier tomorrow for a model hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You have a total for Macomb Illinois Chicago storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is that snow or ice in Indy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hi guys, I've been away all day, just staying busy. Where does the worst icing look to setup now? I did stock up on firewood just incase (need to pickup the beer in the morning). Also, how much ice does it take to do extensive damage? Never really encountered a bad one. I remember a few years ago tracking Beau's storm, I hope I never expierence that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Its been a fight I never even wanted to get into from the get go for this storm... The path it was coming from and I figured enough blocking or push to the east to get snow up here was a blind hailmary TD at best.. Then it got slowly more interesting by the day until the high rise at 12z today and the MKE office got the best of me. Then came the freefall from 18z on tonight, and then looking at hr 42 on the euro it was another here we go again moment and squealing like a burnt weenie on the grill.. This is not going to get any easier tomorrow for a model hugger. We're going to get very respectable snows out of this thing. Our areas will probably be a little northwest of the main show, but I think we both have an excellent shot at a foot or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MSP: 0.28" OMA: 0.55" DSM: 1.31" JLN: 1.72" TUL: 1.73" OKC: 1.10" STL: 1.66" PAH: 0.90" PIA: 1.75" DVN: 1.58" The Euro is clobbering Des Moines much more than any other model. Any thoughts about that? Even the strong GFS run tonight only has half that qpf. And how does Cedar Rapids(1.67" per JC's post above) get more than Davenport(1.58")? That doesn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Its been a fight I never even wanted to get into from the get go for this storm... The path it was coming from and I figured enough blocking or push to the east to get snow up here was a blind hailmary TD at best.. Then it got slowly more interesting by the day until the high rise at 12z today and the MKE office got the best of me. Then came the freefall from 18z on tonight, and then looking at hr 42 on the euro it was another here we go again moment and squealing like a burnt weenie on the grill.. This is not going to get any easier tomorrow for a model hugger. Dare I say this could be one of the best weeks of your life? At minimum 15" of snow and a GB SB victory? Wow, man...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MSP: 0.28" OMA: 0.55" DSM: 1.31" JLN: 1.72" TUL: 1.73" OKC: 1.10" STL: 1.66" PAH: 0.90" PIA: 1.75" DVN: 1.58" LSE: 0.38" MSN: 1.14" MKE: 1.53" FLD: 0.79" ORD: 1.54" LAF: 1.47" IND: 1.31" GRR: 1.05" DTW: 1.13" DAY: 1.08" CMH: 0.99" YYZ: 0.87" You can always trust the Euro to give us some love. Could it be that it takes lake enhancement into account better than the other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is that snow or ice in Indy? Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Same here up in S/C WI. EURO would have about .5-.55 qpf for the 2nd storm (solid 7-9+) and the GFS/NAM have between .25 and .3 qpf for the 2nd storm. Quite a bit of difference there. Gonna be tough to forecast this one though, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The Euro is clobbering Des Moines much more than any other model. Any thoughts about that? Even the strong GFS run tonight only has half that qpf. And how does Cedar Rapids(1.67") get more than Davenport(1.58")? might be front end snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ice All of it? Dang.. thats going to be quite an ice storm for them. Its a nice city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dare I say this could be one of the best weeks of your life? At minimum 15" of snow and a GB SB victory? Wow, man...wow. Green Bay has a pretty good shot at it with the game taking place in basically a dome type environment. This should really allow Rodgers to excel like he did in Atlanta. I think if GB gets off to a quick start it's over for Pitt. If they don't though then the relentless D of Pitt will wear Rodgers into submission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All of it? Dang.. thats going to be quite an ice storm for them. Its a nice city Well probably not all it, if the Euro is right via the 2m temps. But the other models look more ominous for IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 All of it? Dang.. thats going to be quite an ice storm for them. Its a nice city IND is gonna be tough to call until right up to the event, like much of central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You have a total for Macomb Illinois Chicago storm? 2.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here is the scale http://weatherobserv...storm-scale.htm But - remember the scale uses wind and accumulation. A quarter inch of ice with high winds cause major damage. 1/2" of ice to 1" of ice with high winds - significant damage. Going to be a mess for a few counties. Wow, thanks. I didnt know there was a scale. The winds are forecast to gust over 25 mph during the worst period of ZR. What rating we may end up at I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2.00" Looking pretty snowy on the WIU campus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoesgmab Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All of it? Dang.. thats going to be quite an ice storm for them. Its a nice city It looks to me like freezing rain early on, then transitioning over to sleet/freezing rain for much of the duration. There is a sizable warm layer inversion, but who knows how shallow the below-freezing surface layer will remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well. my recent local forecast is .5 inches of ice, 3-4 inches of sleet, 5 inches of snow. I saw the euro text out put..we are in the mid 20s here. well, looks like I will see the heaviest sleet of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well. my recent local forecast is .5 inches of ice, 3-4 inches of sleet, 5 inches of snow. I saw the euro text out put..we are in the mid 20s here. well, looks like I will see the heaviest sleet of all time. What a MESS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z NMM at 48hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hi res WRF looks pretty juicy at 48hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well. my recent local forecast is .5 inches of ice, 3-4 inches of sleet, 5 inches of snow. I saw the euro text out put..we are in the mid 20s here. well, looks like I will see the heaviest sleet of all time. I may be in the same boat. I could def. see myself getting 1-3 inches of sleet. Anywhere between .50-1in of ice and an inch or 2 of snow after this sucker occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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