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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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Careful, that's going to end up in someone's signature for all time.

Milf's would be the furthest thing from my mind and a certain forecaster from Chicago. And a few posters here, but I digress. My other famous typo at the other forum as a snot storm. Back to the snow forecast/storm forecast John.

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Yep, rock solid. Hate to sound like a model humper, especially since the event hasn't even occurred yet, but the Euro has been extremely consistent with this thing for the past 3-4 days.

lmaosmiley.gif

But yes, it's been especially consistent on the fringe too, which from past experiences with any model usually isn't the case

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You guys line up pretty well with what we get down here. I think we'll both do pretty well man. I'm thinking our areas pick up 10-15" total between tomorrow and Wednesday. You guys may do even better with some lake enhancement.

Its been a fight I never even wanted to get into from the get go for this storm... The path it was coming from and I figured enough blocking or push to the east to get snow up here was a blind hailmary TD at best and thats being genoerous. Then it got slowly more interesting by the day and until the high rise at 12z today and the MKE office got the best of me. Then came the freefall from 18z on tonight, and then looking at hr 42 on the euro it was another here we go again moment and squealing like a burnt weenie on the grill.. This is not going to get any easier tomorrow for a model hugger.

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Hi guys, I've been away all day, just staying busy. Where does the worst icing look to setup now? I did stock up on firewood just incase (need to pickup the beer in the morning). Also, how much ice does it take to do extensive damage? Never really encountered a bad one. I remember a few years ago tracking Beau's storm, I hope I never expierence that.

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Its been a fight I never even wanted to get into from the get go for this storm... The path it was coming from and I figured enough blocking or push to the east to get snow up here was a blind hailmary TD at best.. Then it got slowly more interesting by the day until the high rise at 12z today and the MKE office got the best of me. Then came the freefall from 18z on tonight, and then looking at hr 42 on the euro it was another here we go again moment and squealing like a burnt weenie on the grill.. This is not going to get any easier tomorrow for a model hugger.

We're going to get very respectable snows out of this thing. Our areas will probably be a little northwest of the main show, but I think we both have an excellent shot at a foot or more. :snowman:

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MSP: 0.28"

OMA: 0.55"

DSM: 1.31"

JLN: 1.72"

TUL: 1.73"

OKC: 1.10"

STL: 1.66"

PAH: 0.90"

PIA: 1.75"

DVN: 1.58"

The Euro is clobbering Des Moines much more than any other model. Any thoughts about that? Even the strong GFS run tonight only has half that qpf.

And how does Cedar Rapids(1.67" per JC's post above) get more than Davenport(1.58")? That doesn't make much sense.

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Its been a fight I never even wanted to get into from the get go for this storm... The path it was coming from and I figured enough blocking or push to the east to get snow up here was a blind hailmary TD at best.. Then it got slowly more interesting by the day until the high rise at 12z today and the MKE office got the best of me. Then came the freefall from 18z on tonight, and then looking at hr 42 on the euro it was another here we go again moment and squealing like a burnt weenie on the grill.. This is not going to get any easier tomorrow for a model hugger.

Dare I say this could be one of the best weeks of your life? At minimum 15" of snow and a GB SB victory? Wow, man...wow.

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MSP: 0.28"

OMA: 0.55"

DSM: 1.31"

JLN: 1.72"

TUL: 1.73"

OKC: 1.10"

STL: 1.66"

PAH: 0.90"

PIA: 1.75"

DVN: 1.58"

LSE: 0.38"

MSN: 1.14"

MKE: 1.53"

FLD: 0.79"

ORD: 1.54"

LAF: 1.47"

IND: 1.31"

GRR: 1.05"

DTW: 1.13"

DAY: 1.08"

CMH: 0.99"

YYZ: 0.87"

You can always trust the Euro to give us some love. Could it be that it takes lake enhancement into account better than the other models?

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Dare I say this could be one of the best weeks of your life? At minimum 15" of snow and a GB SB victory? Wow, man...wow.

Green Bay has a pretty good shot at it with the game taking place in basically a dome type environment. This should really allow Rodgers to excel like he did in Atlanta. I think if GB gets off to a quick start it's over for Pitt. If they don't though then the relentless D of Pitt will wear Rodgers into submission.

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Here is the scale

http://weatherobserv...storm-scale.htm

But - remember the scale uses wind and accumulation.

A quarter inch of ice with high winds cause major damage.

1/2" of ice to 1" of ice with high winds - significant damage.

Going to be a mess for a few counties.

Wow, thanks. I didnt know there was a scale. The winds are forecast to gust over 25 mph during the worst period of ZR. What rating we may end up at I have no idea.

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All of it? Dang.. thats going to be quite an ice storm for them. Its a nice city

It looks to me like freezing rain early on, then transitioning over to sleet/freezing rain for much of the duration. There is a sizable warm layer inversion, but who knows how shallow the below-freezing surface layer will remain.

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well.

my recent local forecast is .5 inches of ice, 3-4 inches of sleet, 5 inches of snow.

I saw the euro text out put..we are in the mid 20s here.

well, looks like I will see the heaviest sleet of all time.

I may be in the same boat. I could def. see myself getting 1-3 inches of sleet. Anywhere between .50-1in of ice and an inch or 2 of snow after this sucker occludes.

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