daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wonder if he will drive around in a plow truck again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I believe they closed it south of Indy during Dec 04 as well and maybe again in early 09<br /> I65 is <b>very </b>dangerous at the sugar creek bridge / 84 mm... tons of accidents will occur there with the icing and it will end up being shut down again.<br /> Same with 69. Between about the 45mm and the 14mm sections seem to shut down every year. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Biggest run of any model in my short tracking time.... If the Euro drops the QPF and goes to a quicker occlusion or weaker that's a very scary red flag for the epic stuff the MKE office has out... To far out yet to jump or celebrate even if the euro is nice tonight here. This is just not a good starting point for a storm heading up for us and takes something like portrayed on models to make it epic... shows just how freakish this storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like. Map looks really good to me. I agree that 10-15" looks pretty solid for the QC. Higher amounts than that are certainly possible, but the safe bet is to undercut some of the extreme guidance values for now. Going to be a hell of a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Beau and Justin, thanks for the detailed help. Much appreciated for decision making around here. Beau, sent you a PM. The concern I would have for your area is if this thing occludes super fast, there could be some low level cold air rushing in a lot quicker while moisture is still getting whirled in and icing starts again. And as Beau said, probably not far to the West and North of you is going to have major, major problems. Other poster- KDTZ- I'm really not as confident with the snow amounts in NW Ohio/Southern Michigan. What concerns me is the quick occlusion and the loss of best moisture and snow production from that area but I don't want to poo poo the potential at least. But its possible those amounts could be 3-5" to high. I know our nice storm back in Dec of 1987 rapidly occluded over the Chicago metro area but here in the QC we got close to 12" from just the primary storm itself, and a couple inches of WAA snows ahead of it too I believe. Some of the synoptics of this storm very much remind me of that storm. The Jan 99 blizzard also comes to mind a bit as well...that was very much a spread the wealth type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The concern I would have for your area is if this thing occludes super fast, there could be some low level cold air rushing in a lot quicker while moisture is still getting whirled in and icing starts again. And as Beau said, probably not far to the West and North of you is going to have major, major problems. Other poster- KDTZ- I'm really not as confident with the snow amounts in NW Ohio/Southern Michigan. What concerns me is the quick occlusion and the loss of best moisture and snow production from that area but I don't want to poo poo the potential at least. But its possible those amounts could be 3-5" to high. I know our nice storm back in Dec of 1987 rapidly occluded over the Chicago metro area but here in the QC we got close to 12" from just the primary storm itself, and a couple inches of WAA snows ahead of it too I believe. Some of the synoptics of this storm very much remind me of that storm. The Jan 99 blizzard also comes to mind a bit as well...that was very much a spread the wealth type storm. And I guess there's not much chance of the low center passing further to the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 JCWXGUY, looks about 6-10" Omaha area with some strong winds, NWS here said they will likely upgrade to blizzard warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The concern I would have for your area is if this thing occludes super fast, there could be some low level cold air rushing in a lot quicker while moisture is still getting whirled in and icing starts again. And as Beau said, probably not far to the West and North of you is going to have major, major problems. Other poster- KDTZ- I'm really not as confident with the snow amounts in NW Ohio/Southern Michigan. What concerns me is the quick occlusion and the loss of best moisture and snow production from that area but I don't want to poo poo the potential at least. But its possible those amounts could be 3-5" to high. I know our nice storm back in Dec of 1987 rapidly occluded over the Chicago metro area but here in the QC we got close to 12" from just the primary storm itself, and a couple inches of WAA snows ahead of it too I believe. Some of the synoptics of this storm very much remind me of that storm. The Jan 99 blizzard also comes to mind a bit as well...that was very much a spread the wealth type storm. This is not going to occlude. All the 00z models except the NAM is doing the exact opposite. It will continue to rapidly deepen and strengthen givven power dynamics and neg tilted 500mb vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well here it goes--Euro is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anyone want to take a stab at how this is going to play out for KSTL based on the latest runs? Met's will earn their keep here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have moved GREarth precip typing radar to center over the storm http://weatherobserv...ar_grearth2.htm Thanks, Beau. Appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro and GFS are identical through 24 in the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm having some cookies and milf, brb guys and gals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hate what I'm seeing at 30... hopefully its just the weenie in be but this won't end up making me happy.. tis ok tho.... As long as the Hoosier storm hammers LAF with snow and i get a lil 6" to open the trails i'll deal.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm having some cookies and milf, brb guys and gals. what's her name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 milk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z ECMWF... 36hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in E. Texas. Heavy precip from C. Texas to C. Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro has a much larger 1002 contour in Texas at 24 hrs wrt the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm having some cookies and milf, brb guys and gals. Enjoy your MILF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The concern I would have for your area is if this thing occludes super fast, there could be some low level cold air rushing in a lot quicker while moisture is still getting whirled in and icing starts again. And as Beau said, probably not far to the West and North of you is going to have major, major problems. Other poster- KDTZ- I'm really not as confident with the snow amounts in NW Ohio/Southern Michigan. What concerns me is the quick occlusion and the loss of best moisture and snow production from that area but I don't want to poo poo the potential at least. But its possible those amounts could be 3-5" to high. I know our nice storm back in Dec of 1987 rapidly occluded over the Chicago metro area but here in the QC we got close to 12" from just the primary storm itself, and a couple inches of WAA snows ahead of it too I believe. Some of the synoptics of this storm very much remind me of that storm. The Jan 99 blizzard also comes to mind a bit as well...that was very much a spread the wealth type storm. Yeah... models have been relatively consistent so far with QPF amounts... I'd like to see the ECMWF before I say anything more right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Biggest run of any model in my short tracking time.... If the Euro drops the QPF and goes to a quicker occlusion or weaker that's a very scary red flag for the epic stuff the MKE office has out... To far out yet to jump or celebrate even if the euro is nice tonight here. This is just not a good starting point for a storm heading up for us and takes something like portrayed on models to make it epic... shows just how freakish this storm is. Yeah, I was hoping for a roughly St. Louis to Indianapolis track without occlusion; that would be more ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z ECMWF... 36hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in E. Texas. Heavy precip from C. Texas to C. Oklahoma. 42hrs: 1000mb SLP in East/Central Arkansas. Nice hit from OKC to KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 def not gonna be good.. pushes this way to far down for me.. NAM for the win.. That's what I get for saying I liked it for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z clown map...sorry if already posted. Better than the NAM for me. Really hoping I can get get at least 6-8" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 42hrs: 1000mb SLP in East/Central Arkansas. Nice hit from OKC to KC. 48hrs: 992mb SLP in SE. Missouri. Nice hit from C. Illinois down into E. Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 def not gonna be good.. pushes this way to far down for me.. NAM for the win.. That's what I get for saying I liked it for this storm. Woah, woah, woah, the NAM has been all alone so far. Just because the Euro looks like it's going to join it for one run isn't the end of the world. Actually, I think the NAM gave us the highest QPF of the recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ridiculous. Euro goes loko by hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 48hrs: 992mb SLP in SE. Missouri. Nice hit from C. Illinois down into E. Kansas. 54hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Same spot as 12z run. Nice hit from MO/IA to DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOW is in literally the same exact spot as 12z at hr 54. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.