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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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I believe they closed it south of Indy during Dec 04 as well and maybe again in early 09<br />

I65 is <b>very </b>dangerous at the sugar creek bridge / 84 mm... tons of accidents will occur there with the icing and it will end up being shut down again.<br />

Same with 69. Between about the 45mm and the 14mm sections seem to shut down every year.

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Biggest run of any model in my short tracking time.... If the Euro drops the QPF and goes to a quicker occlusion or weaker that's a very scary red flag for the epic stuff the MKE office has out... To far out yet to jump or celebrate even if the euro is nice tonight here.

This is just not a good starting point for a storm heading up for us and takes something like portrayed on models to make it epic... shows just how freakish this storm is.

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Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like.

Map looks really good to me. I agree that 10-15" looks pretty solid for the QC. Higher amounts than that are certainly possible, but the safe bet is to undercut some of the extreme guidance values for now. Going to be a hell of a storm!

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Beau and Justin, thanks for the detailed help. Much appreciated for decision making around here. Beau, sent you a PM.

The concern I would have for your area is if this thing occludes super fast, there could be some low level cold air rushing in a lot quicker while moisture is still getting whirled in and icing starts again. And as Beau said, probably not far to the West and North of you is going to have major, major problems.

Other poster- KDTZ- I'm really not as confident with the snow amounts in NW Ohio/Southern Michigan. What concerns me is the quick occlusion and the loss of best moisture and snow production from that area but I don't want to poo poo the potential at least. But its possible those amounts could be 3-5" to high. I know our nice storm back in Dec of 1987 rapidly occluded over the Chicago metro area but here in the QC we got close to 12" from just the primary storm itself, and a couple inches of WAA snows ahead of it too I believe. Some of the synoptics of this storm very much remind me of that storm. The Jan 99 blizzard also comes to mind a bit as well...that was very much a spread the wealth type storm.

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The concern I would have for your area is if this thing occludes super fast, there could be some low level cold air rushing in a lot quicker while moisture is still getting whirled in and icing starts again. And as Beau said, probably not far to the West and North of you is going to have major, major problems.

Other poster- KDTZ- I'm really not as confident with the snow amounts in NW Ohio/Southern Michigan. What concerns me is the quick occlusion and the loss of best moisture and snow production from that area but I don't want to poo poo the potential at least. But its possible those amounts could be 3-5" to high. I know our nice storm back in Dec of 1987 rapidly occluded over the Chicago metro area but here in the QC we got close to 12" from just the primary storm itself, and a couple inches of WAA snows ahead of it too I believe. Some of the synoptics of this storm very much remind me of that storm. The Jan 99 blizzard also comes to mind a bit as well...that was very much a spread the wealth type storm.

And I guess there's not much chance of the low center passing further to the southeast?

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The concern I would have for your area is if this thing occludes super fast, there could be some low level cold air rushing in a lot quicker while moisture is still getting whirled in and icing starts again. And as Beau said, probably not far to the West and North of you is going to have major, major problems.

Other poster- KDTZ- I'm really not as confident with the snow amounts in NW Ohio/Southern Michigan. What concerns me is the quick occlusion and the loss of best moisture and snow production from that area but I don't want to poo poo the potential at least. But its possible those amounts could be 3-5" to high. I know our nice storm back in Dec of 1987 rapidly occluded over the Chicago metro area but here in the QC we got close to 12" from just the primary storm itself, and a couple inches of WAA snows ahead of it too I believe. Some of the synoptics of this storm very much remind me of that storm. The Jan 99 blizzard also comes to mind a bit as well...that was very much a spread the wealth type storm.

This is not going to occlude. All the 00z models except the NAM is doing the exact opposite. It will continue to rapidly deepen and strengthen givven power dynamics and neg tilted 500mb vort.

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The concern I would have for your area is if this thing occludes super fast, there could be some low level cold air rushing in a lot quicker while moisture is still getting whirled in and icing starts again. And as Beau said, probably not far to the West and North of you is going to have major, major problems.

Other poster- KDTZ- I'm really not as confident with the snow amounts in NW Ohio/Southern Michigan. What concerns me is the quick occlusion and the loss of best moisture and snow production from that area but I don't want to poo poo the potential at least. But its possible those amounts could be 3-5" to high. I know our nice storm back in Dec of 1987 rapidly occluded over the Chicago metro area but here in the QC we got close to 12" from just the primary storm itself, and a couple inches of WAA snows ahead of it too I believe. Some of the synoptics of this storm very much remind me of that storm. The Jan 99 blizzard also comes to mind a bit as well...that was very much a spread the wealth type storm.

Yeah... models have been relatively consistent so far with QPF amounts... I'd like to see the ECMWF before I say anything more right now.

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Biggest run of any model in my short tracking time.... If the Euro drops the QPF and goes to a quicker occlusion or weaker that's a very scary red flag for the epic stuff the MKE office has out... To far out yet to jump or celebrate even if the euro is nice tonight here.

This is just not a good starting point for a storm heading up for us and takes something like portrayed on models to make it epic... shows just how freakish this storm is.

Yeah, I was hoping for a roughly St. Louis to Indianapolis track without occlusion; that would be more ideal.

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def not gonna be good.. pushes this way to far down for me.. NAM for the win.. That's what I get for saying I liked it for this storm.

Woah, woah, woah, the NAM has been all alone so far. Just because the Euro looks like it's going to join it for one run isn't the end of the world. Actually, I think the NAM gave us the highest QPF of the recent runs.

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