Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am thinking and telling people that I believe the interstates may be shut down in some areas - I know it is rare but this could be one time it happens. Yeah I could see the potential of some of the ones around Chicago being closed, and maybe even the 80/90 through IN if the winds are realized and out of the NE direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 mostly mid 20's with 32 at 60hrs....850 tmps at 0c & below Assume you were talking to me... thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like. Ok, since your gray FZRA area goes right over my house... please expound on the temp profiles that you expect to cause this. NWS has some minor FZRA in the forecast for your gray area, however I'm seeing high temps near 39F in this area. Why the FZRA? And why "major" ? Don't get me wrong, I'll take an ice storm. But can you expound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Assume you were talking to me... thanks. yes...i hit the wrong reply button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like. 1-5" of snow for me/omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Got the 00z GFS for ORD? 0z GFS ORD: 21.4" (1.15") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My ADD laughs at, HPC.. That's all and back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Skilling on facebook: [/url] Tom Skilling Model precip tallies are eye-catching, to put it mildly. We've averaged 62 precip forecasts off 7 key models the past 3 days and arrived at the following: Average water equiv precip: 1.18". With predicted snow/water ratios off 32 runs pegged at 15 to 1, the storm's snow could come in at 16-18" before lake moisture is a...dded. That could come to another 3 to 7" portions of some lakeside counties. Check out this graphic depicting the storm's sustained winds at 7 am Wed--in the heart of the morning rush hour. The dark blue areas are regions where sustained winds will be topping 30 kts (roughly 35 mph). With 45-50 mph NE wind predicted just above the surface, gusts of that strength may make it down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Got the 00z GFS for ORD? 1.19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yes...i hit the wrong reply button Alright. Wasn't expecting that good of anything from that. Never seen this type of occlusion that far west that ends up going due east afterwards... so it's definitely a nightmare to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LB do you have the h48 panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bow- Not like LSE ... weird being on the other side of the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like. Looks rock solid Justin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks LB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks for posting your thoughts...I'd be more conservative though over here, but that would be epic. Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Alright. Wasn't expecting that good of anything from that. Never seen this type of occlusion that far west that ends up going due east afterwards... so it's definitely a nightmare to forecast. well i hope you get nailed out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WAA is really good in Madison as well though. That could be the reason why. MKE: WAA: .33 QPF 2nd Storm: .62 QPF Total: .95 QPF MSN: WAA: .39 QPF 2nd Storm: .48 QPF Total: .87 QPF The event for tommorow should have very good ratios. Plus they'll have better ratios because they are farther NW from the low. I would say something like 16-18:1 ratios for MSN and 13-15:1 ratios for MKE. Hence the higher totals. You get a gold star for that post. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like I might be right in the cross hairs of the icing event here Tuesday night-Wednesday AM. All models show a warm layer moving in with any precip likely over to sleet by Tuesday evening and zr by midnight Tuesday night. Most models then print out at least .5" of QPF after midnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning and don't really bring temps above 30, so ice should accrete well. NAM probably has about an inch of zr here as it shows a shorter period of sleet, which would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HPC going with a part of the 18z NAm and it was suspect. Being on the N NE side of the low here in MI and with temps in the 20's I think ratios will still be good. Obviously not as good as being on the NW side of the low but I am curious what y'all think they will be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ok, since your gray FZRA area goes right over my house... please expound on the temp profiles that you expect to cause this. NWS has some minor FZRA in the forecast for your gray area, however I'm seeing high temps near 39F in this area. Why the FZRA? And why "major" ? Don't get me wrong, I'll take an ice storm. But can you expound? You may have a brief period of icing as the event unfolds, but should change over to rain. My technology at home is not as great as what I use at work, so I can't make the gradients as tight as I would like. So I broadbrushed it a bit. In any event, at the height of the storm, yes you will likely be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ukmet track would drop a record amount of sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Jim Cantore posted on Twitter he coming to Chicago tommorow. Tweets "Could be Chicago's biggest snow of all time" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1-5" of snow for me/omaha Take the high end of that, I tried I sneak those areas into the 5-10" range actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like. 10-15"? I'm game. HPC going with a part of the 18z NAm and it was suspect. Being on the N NE side of the low here in MI and with temps in the 20's I think ratios will still be good. Obviously not as good as being on the NW side of the low but I am curious what y'all think they will be here. Not 18z, 0z NAM. For the most part if it doesn't have the time of the run around the time of that suite (0z Suite coming out now)... it's the most current one. Wish I could've worded that better... but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Jim Cantore posted on Twitter he coming to Chicago tommorow. Tweets "Could be Chicago's biggest snow of all time" Rut roh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Rut roh. I thought the Cantore curse was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Beau and Justin, thanks for the detailed help. Much appreciated for decision making around here. Beau, sent you a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 [/url] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I thought the Cantore curse was over. Yeah not sure. But the "could be Chicago's biggest snow of all time" part worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 FYI, the UKMET finally came in on Plymouth. edit: sort of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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