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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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Very difficult to forecast especially when you have this kind of occlusion with the mid-level centers closing off so rapidly. The further northwest from the surface low I am, the more nervous I would be if I were currently modeled to receive heavy QPF. Obviously the ratios are better there, but you can get some decrease in dynamics as the banding pushes northwest..as well as a decrease in frontogenic forcing and upward vertical velocities/etc. The NAM seems pretty stubborn in this thing going bonkers pretty far north and west, though. Going to be really awesome to watch from the outside in here on the East Coast. This entire winter has been stressful from a forecasting standpoint as every storm has been nerve-wracking until the last second...might sound crazy but I will thoroughly enjoy watching this one play out from the sidelines from a meteorological perspective.

NAM will be wrong. I have a feeling the 06Z will correct its 0z junk run.

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Do you think the fact that the storm is now onshore and better sampled is the reason that the GFS is more amped this latest run?

Now I HAVE to see the Euro.

Better sampling has definitely helped as the models have consistently trended stronger with the southern stream as well as a full on phase in the upper height field (above 500 hpa).

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00z GFS run has 0.9" liquid at MSN, with 20+ ratios still. I'm starting to think it's a probable scenario since it's physically plausible and the GFS has been so consistent. MKE will probably up the forecast tomorrow big time if the GFS stays similar.

It's kind of concerning to me in Milwaukee that Madison is getting more snowfall on the GFS than us. We're further east and have the lake to help with enhancement. Ratios wouldn't be as good, but why would the QPF be better (we have 0.7 something)?

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lol, that spread in Tippecanoe County (LAF) is priceless.

I feel for you bud, as this is a very difficult forecast for your area. The only thing really certain is you'll pick up a crapload of QPF. A minor shift either way will make a huge difference in your overall outcome. It looks like you guys still pick up a lot of snow, but with quite a bit of sleet mixing in from time to time. Unless the radical western solutions verify you guys should avoid the worst of the glazing threat from the looks of things.

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HPC:

...SYSTEM TRACKING NEWD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SRN PLAINS...

PREFERENCE: EQUAL BLEND OF 21Z SREF MEAN/18Z GEFS MEAN/NAM

THE GFS IS ONE OF THE QUICKEST SOLNS TO CLOSE OFF THE MID LVL

SYSTEM OVER THE ERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY... LEADING TO A SFC LOW THAT

IS ON THE DEEP SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD FROM ERN TX INTO THE OH

VALLEY. THE 00Z CANADIAN REG GEM IS THE ONE OTHER SOLN THAT SHOWS

AS MUCH DEVELOPMENT AS THE GFS SFC/ALOFT BY F48 LATE TUE. THE CAN

REG GEM CAN OCCASIONALLY HAVE A BIAS TOWARD OVER-DEVELOPMENT SO

DEEPER TRENDS BY OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD BE PREFERRED BEFORE LEANING

IN THAT DIRECTION. ALSO NOTE THAT OVER THE PAST DAY THE NAM HAS

TRENDED WEAKER FROM A STRONGER THAN CONSENSUS SOLN 24 HRS AGO...

AND THAT UPSTREAM FLOW IN THE GFS IS NOT PREFERRED. MEANWHILE THE

12Z ECMWF/CMC MODELS LEAN TOWARD THE NRN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

SPREAD WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK AT LEAST INTO THE DAY WED. THE 21Z

SREF/18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE

OVERALL AND PROVIDE A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLN THRU THE PERIOD...

WITH THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING PARTICULARLY GOOD

CONTINUITY OVER MULTIPLE DAYS ASIDE FROM MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.

WITH SOME SMALL SCALE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN

APPROACH PROVIDES THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME... WITH THE NAM

PROVIDING THE MOST SIMILAR OPERATIONAL SOLN TO THIS PREFERENCE

ASIDE FROM THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SFC LOW POSSIBLY BEING

A LITTLE TOO SLOW.

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Insanity. Look at the tilt and strong phase in the jet level flow.

post-999-0-23394500-1296451145.gif

Right this may help enhance that defo band NW of the track and aid in a wetter and more northwesterly track. I see the isobars are more tightly packed and surface low 4-8mb stronger. It might role into a bowling ball and become vertically stacked and sit there through IN/OH Wednesday and that defo band hammer ORD-DTX.

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I am thinking and telling people that I believe the interstates may be shut down in some areas - I know it is rare but this could be one time it happens.

Not as rare as you think around here. I-65 is hell in winter storms and it's happened numerous times from LAF all the way up to the Toll Road.

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WAA is really good in Madison as well though. That could be the reason why.

MKE:

WAA: .33 QPF

2nd Storm: .62 QPF

Total: .95 QPF

MSN:

WAA: .39 QPF

2nd Storm: .48 QPF

Total: .87 QPF

The event for tommorow should have very good ratios. Plus they'll have better ratios because they are farther NW from the low. I would say something like 16-18:1 ratios for MSN and 13-15:1 ratios for MKE.

Hence the higher totals.

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Right this may help enhance that defo band NW of the track and aid in a wetter and more northwesterly track. I see the isobars are more tightly packed and surface low 4-8mb stronger. It might role into a bowling ball and become vertically stacked and sit there through IN/OH Wednesday and that defo band hammer ORD-DTX.

This thing will have one of the most impressive satellite signatures I have seen in ages. It will rival and perhaps exceed Octobomb in that regard.

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Not as rare as you think around here. I-65 is hell in winter storms and it's happened numerous times from LAF all the way up to the Toll Road.

I believe they closed it south of Indy during Dec 04 as well and maybe again in early 09

I65 is very dangerous at the sugar creek bridge / 84 mm... tons of accidents will occur there with the icing and it will end up being shut down again.

edit: re: ukie - is that a little farther NW?

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I feel for you bud, as this is a very difficult forecast for your area. The only thing really certain is you'll pick up a crapload of QPF. A minor shift either way will make a huge difference in your overall outcome. It looks like you guys still pick up a lot of snow, but with quite a bit of sleet mixing in from time to time. Unless the radical western solutions verify you guys should avoid the worst of the glazing threat from the looks of things.

As I told Hoosier, a nail biter to the very end. :arrowhead:

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Holy cow at the event that's forecast to unfold in Oklahoma. With a rapidly cooling thermal column (2m temps are near -3 to as low as -6)...the SPC-WRF has expansive precipitation and very impressive precipitation rates...the "PDS" Winter Storm Warning was likely completely warranted.

:arrowhead: :arrowhead:

Need to also add, we are looking at this system pulling in the coldest air in 15 years down here....high of 12 Wed., low just below zero.

Earthlight, how does the WRF usually perform at this timeframe? Thanks!

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Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like.

post-1678-0-65105100-1296451572.png

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