Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 lol, that spread in Tippecanoe County (LAF) is priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z GFS run has 0.9" liquid at MSN, with 20+ ratios still. I'm starting to think it's a probable scenario since it's physically plausible and the GFS has been so consistent. MKE will probably up the forecast tomorrow big time if the GFS stays similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Very difficult to forecast especially when you have this kind of occlusion with the mid-level centers closing off so rapidly. The further northwest from the surface low I am, the more nervous I would be if I were currently modeled to receive heavy QPF. Obviously the ratios are better there, but you can get some decrease in dynamics as the banding pushes northwest..as well as a decrease in frontogenic forcing and upward vertical velocities/etc. The NAM seems pretty stubborn in this thing going bonkers pretty far north and west, though. Going to be really awesome to watch from the outside in here on the East Coast. This entire winter has been stressful from a forecasting standpoint as every storm has been nerve-wracking until the last second...might sound crazy but I will thoroughly enjoy watching this one play out from the sidelines from a meteorological perspective. NAM will be wrong. I have a feeling the 06Z will correct its 0z junk run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Holy cow at the event that's forecast to unfold in Oklahoma. With a rapidly cooling thermal column (2m temps are near -3 to as low as -6)...the SPC-WRF has expansive precipitation and very impressive precipitation rates...the "PDS" Winter Storm Warning was likely completely warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0.54 TOL if you could, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Badger- Its been pretty consistent with giving MSN some good snow... Should be fun to watch...any nw track adjustment(we all know this thing will trend to MSP :thumbsup:) could blitz you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you think the fact that the storm is now onshore and better sampled is the reason that the GFS is more amped this latest run? Now I HAVE to see the Euro. Better sampling has definitely helped as the models have consistently trended stronger with the southern stream as well as a full on phase in the upper height field (above 500 hpa). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 TOL if you could, thanks. TOL 1.29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Insanity. Look at the tilt and strong phase in the jet level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z GFS run has 0.9" liquid at MSN, with 20+ ratios still. I'm starting to think it's a probable scenario since it's physically plausible and the GFS has been so consistent. MKE will probably up the forecast tomorrow big time if the GFS stays similar. It's kind of concerning to me in Milwaukee that Madison is getting more snowfall on the GFS than us. We're further east and have the lake to help with enhancement. Ratios wouldn't be as good, but why would the QPF be better (we have 0.7 something)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 TOL 1.29 Was not expecting that much, thanks. Any ideas on temps though? Looked sketchy with the WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 lol, that spread in Tippecanoe County (LAF) is priceless. I feel for you bud, as this is a very difficult forecast for your area. The only thing really certain is you'll pick up a crapload of QPF. A minor shift either way will make a huge difference in your overall outcome. It looks like you guys still pick up a lot of snow, but with quite a bit of sleet mixing in from time to time. Unless the radical western solutions verify you guys should avoid the worst of the glazing threat from the looks of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just out of curiousity, what was the QPF on the 12Z Euro from ORD west to DVN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've always wanted to buzz down an interstate on a snowmobile during a blizzard... if only i owned one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HPC: ...SYSTEM TRACKING NEWD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SRN PLAINS... PREFERENCE: EQUAL BLEND OF 21Z SREF MEAN/18Z GEFS MEAN/NAM THE GFS IS ONE OF THE QUICKEST SOLNS TO CLOSE OFF THE MID LVL SYSTEM OVER THE ERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY... LEADING TO A SFC LOW THAT IS ON THE DEEP SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD FROM ERN TX INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE 00Z CANADIAN REG GEM IS THE ONE OTHER SOLN THAT SHOWS AS MUCH DEVELOPMENT AS THE GFS SFC/ALOFT BY F48 LATE TUE. THE CAN REG GEM CAN OCCASIONALLY HAVE A BIAS TOWARD OVER-DEVELOPMENT SO DEEPER TRENDS BY OTHER GUIDANCE WOULD BE PREFERRED BEFORE LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION. ALSO NOTE THAT OVER THE PAST DAY THE NAM HAS TRENDED WEAKER FROM A STRONGER THAN CONSENSUS SOLN 24 HRS AGO... AND THAT UPSTREAM FLOW IN THE GFS IS NOT PREFERRED. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC MODELS LEAN TOWARD THE NRN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK AT LEAST INTO THE DAY WED. THE 21Z SREF/18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE OVERALL AND PROVIDE A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLN THRU THE PERIOD... WITH THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING PARTICULARLY GOOD CONTINUITY OVER MULTIPLE DAYS ASIDE FROM MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS. WITH SOME SMALL SCALE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH PROVIDES THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME... WITH THE NAM PROVIDING THE MOST SIMILAR OPERATIONAL SOLN TO THIS PREFERENCE ASIDE FROM THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SFC LOW POSSIBLY BEING A LITTLE TOO SLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Insanity. Look at the tilt and strong phase in the jet level flow. Right this may help enhance that defo band NW of the track and aid in a wetter and more northwesterly track. I see the isobars are more tightly packed and surface low 4-8mb stronger. It might role into a bowling ball and become vertically stacked and sit there through IN/OH Wednesday and that defo band hammer ORD-DTX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am thinking and telling people that I believe the interstates may be shut down in some areas - I know it is rare but this could be one time it happens. Not as rare as you think around here. I-65 is hell in winter storms and it's happened numerous times from LAF all the way up to the Toll Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 mostly mid 20's with 32 at 60hrs....850 tmps at 0c & below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am just kicking myself for not being able to be in Chicago for this storm! I am looking forward to an epically deep snowpack though, 8 inches on the ground and 13-16 hopefully coming! I hope we get in on some of that blizzard action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's kind of concerning to me in Milwaukee that Madison is getting more snowfall on the GFS than us. We're further east and have the lake to help with enhancement. Ratios wouldn't be as good, but why would the QPF be better (we have 0.7 something)? MKE gets 0.92" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just out of curiousity, what was the QPF on the 12Z Euro from ORD west to DVN? ORD: 1.89" DKB: 1.74" DVN: 1.77" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WAA is really good in Madison as well though. That could be the reason why. MKE: WAA: .33 QPF 2nd Storm: .62 QPF Total: .95 QPF MSN: WAA: .39 QPF 2nd Storm: .48 QPF Total: .87 QPF The event for tommorow should have very good ratios. Plus they'll have better ratios because they are farther NW from the low. I would say something like 16-18:1 ratios for MSN and 13-15:1 ratios for MKE. Hence the higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z Ukie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ORD: 1.89" DKB: 1.74" DVN: 1.77" Got the 00z GFS for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Right this may help enhance that defo band NW of the track and aid in a wetter and more northwesterly track. I see the isobars are more tightly packed and surface low 4-8mb stronger. It might role into a bowling ball and become vertically stacked and sit there through IN/OH Wednesday and that defo band hammer ORD-DTX. This thing will have one of the most impressive satellite signatures I have seen in ages. It will rival and perhaps exceed Octobomb in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not as rare as you think around here. I-65 is hell in winter storms and it's happened numerous times from LAF all the way up to the Toll Road. I believe they closed it south of Indy during Dec 04 as well and maybe again in early 09 I65 is very dangerous at the sugar creek bridge / 84 mm... tons of accidents will occur there with the icing and it will end up being shut down again. edit: re: ukie - is that a little farther NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I feel for you bud, as this is a very difficult forecast for your area. The only thing really certain is you'll pick up a crapload of QPF. A minor shift either way will make a huge difference in your overall outcome. It looks like you guys still pick up a lot of snow, but with quite a bit of sleet mixing in from time to time. Unless the radical western solutions verify you guys should avoid the worst of the glazing threat from the looks of things. As I told Hoosier, a nail biter to the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Holy cow at the event that's forecast to unfold in Oklahoma. With a rapidly cooling thermal column (2m temps are near -3 to as low as -6)...the SPC-WRF has expansive precipitation and very impressive precipitation rates...the "PDS" Winter Storm Warning was likely completely warranted. :arrowhead: Need to also add, we are looking at this system pulling in the coldest air in 15 years down here....high of 12 Wed., low just below zero. Earthlight, how does the WRF usually perform at this timeframe? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here we go, comfortable with making a first call as I said I would Sunday Night. I am a bit iffy on the precip totals in some areas. That purplish zone on the map is going to be a fun area, NOT, in terms of a forecasting standpoint. As that zone will likely have a switch to snow as well with potential of some decent snows as mid level cooling happens before the event ends. Here we go and criticize if you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LB do you have the h48 panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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