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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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Starting to think Peoria might not be a bad spot to be - again! Instead of Chicago - hard to figure out the best wind zone and snow zone - combined. That isn't too far away - either.

Yeah I think Peoria would be a good choice. They line up with Chicago pretty well, and some models peg PIA with 2" or more precip. Plus you could always adjust northwest towards Galesburg or even the QC if need be. A southeast adjustment from there would be easy as well. :snowman:

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Starting to think Peoria might not be a bad spot to be - again! Instead of Chicago - hard to figure out the best wind zone and snow zone - combined. That isn't too far away - either.

Very difficult to forecast especially when you have this kind of occlusion with the mid-level centers closing off so rapidly. The further northwest from the surface low I am, the more nervous I would be if I were currently modeled to receive heavy QPF. Obviously the ratios are better there, but you can get some decrease in dynamics as the banding pushes northwest..as well as a decrease in frontogenic forcing and upward vertical velocities/etc. The NAM seems pretty stubborn in this thing going bonkers pretty far north and west, though. Going to be really awesome to watch from the outside in here on the East Coast. This entire winter has been stressful from a forecasting standpoint as every storm has been nerve-wracking until the last second...might sound crazy but I will thoroughly enjoy watching this one play out from the sidelines from a meteorological perspective.

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0Z NAM was junk. Typically this type of storm is exactly what the NAM was made for--but it had a poor run.

How many of these are we going to have this winter? Sheesh...I know you don't forget the run 24 hours before the storm last week where it was 300 miles too far southeast with every dynamic feature.

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The Euro will likely be amped. Given what the GFS just developed--the Euro is also hydrostatic but has a much finer horizontal spectral wave resolution and will have a better handle on mesoscale forcings like convection and the tight mesoscale coupled jet circulation.

Do you think the fact that the storm is now onshore and better sampled is the reason that the GFS is more amped this latest run?

Now I HAVE to see the Euro.

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