snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Occlusion means we may stay in the heavier bands longer as the low pretty much comes to a stop? Anything but that. Shears out quickly to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Soundings still show a warmer layer above us too which flip flops starting at hour 60. We're getting ice or sleet, sleet would be much, much nicer. Yes, much better. You can shovel/plow sleet to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Occlusion means we may stay in the heavier bands longer as the low pretty much comes to a stop? It bodes well because the low weakens, slides east, spreads a healthy amount of QPF over us, cannot beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The Euro will likely be amped. Given what the GFS just developed--the Euro is also hydrostatic but has a much finer horizontal spectral wave resolution and will have a better handle on mesoscale forcings like convection and the tight mesoscale coupled jet circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If we can't get a farther southeast track, then the backup plan might be to root for an even more rapid occlusion. Fascinating system nonetheless. Fascinating indeed. And it's more fascinating with every model run it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah... ORD ended up with 1" of QPF in that 12hr time period... with a widespread area of .8" or so. Do you know 00z GGEM total QPF for ORD and 00z GFS BUFKIT for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Starting to think Peoria might not be a bad spot to be - again! Instead of Chicago - hard to figure out the best wind zone and snow zone - combined. That isn't too far away - either. Chicago will have lake enhancement though. Can't go wrong either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you know 00z GGEM total QPF for ORD and 00z GFS BUFKIT for ORD. It looks like about 1.35" for ORD on the GGEM... haven't got BUFKIT updated yet for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I suspect the Euro will give Chicago a anal probe. Priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My dad works for Russo Hardware store and said there was 60-70 orders made since 11am today! He sells snowblowers etc.. on ebay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How much QPF for MKE on the GEM? Also, any word on where the low tracks on the UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wonder if ratios will be lower than progged. Guess only downfall as MKE mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I know sometimes we all like to regionalize our discussions, but it's fun to see the conversations from everyone in the U.S. and even Canada about to be affected by this huge storm. Looks like it's gonna spread a lot of love. OK, back to regular programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If the stronger and deeper solution verifies and continues to do so Skilling RPM model will be off the wall tommorow. I bet he sleeping good tonight. His blog says RPM model suggest 25.3 when all said and done for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Starting to think Peoria might not be a bad spot to be - again! Instead of Chicago - hard to figure out the best wind zone and snow zone - combined. That isn't too far away - either. Yeah I think Peoria would be a good choice. They line up with Chicago pretty well, and some models peg PIA with 2" or more precip. Plus you could always adjust northwest towards Galesburg or even the QC if need be. A southeast adjustment from there would be easy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z clown map...sorry if already posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 clown map is off..12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 clown map is off..12z actually its correct 84 hrs from 00z is 12z thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Will the toll booths stay open, or can u just blow through them when these storms come through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 clown map is off..12z The 12Z time is the verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 clown map is off..12z Nope, that's the current run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i'm blind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Shew, though I did it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How much QPF for MKE on the GEM? Also, any word on where the low tracks on the UKIE? GGEM QPF MKE 0.76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Starting to think Peoria might not be a bad spot to be - again! Instead of Chicago - hard to figure out the best wind zone and snow zone - combined. That isn't too far away - either. Very difficult to forecast especially when you have this kind of occlusion with the mid-level centers closing off so rapidly. The further northwest from the surface low I am, the more nervous I would be if I were currently modeled to receive heavy QPF. Obviously the ratios are better there, but you can get some decrease in dynamics as the banding pushes northwest..as well as a decrease in frontogenic forcing and upward vertical velocities/etc. The NAM seems pretty stubborn in this thing going bonkers pretty far north and west, though. Going to be really awesome to watch from the outside in here on the East Coast. This entire winter has been stressful from a forecasting standpoint as every storm has been nerve-wracking until the last second...might sound crazy but I will thoroughly enjoy watching this one play out from the sidelines from a meteorological perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM QPF MKE 0.76 LNK? or klnk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0Z NAM was junk. Typically this type of storm is exactly what the NAM was made for--but it had a poor run. How many of these are we going to have this winter? Sheesh...I know you don't forget the run 24 hours before the storm last week where it was 300 miles too far southeast with every dynamic feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The Euro will likely be amped. Given what the GFS just developed--the Euro is also hydrostatic but has a much finer horizontal spectral wave resolution and will have a better handle on mesoscale forcings like convection and the tight mesoscale coupled jet circulation. Do you think the fact that the storm is now onshore and better sampled is the reason that the GFS is more amped this latest run? Now I HAVE to see the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LNK? or klnk 0.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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