The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 people are going crazy here. with good reason. we will probably get crippled. lets pray its mostly sleet with the dynamics involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks. A monster snowstorm would be great, but I will gladly take 8-10" considering what happened last winter. Yeah, I feel embarrassed to scoff at 8-10" but considering what'll be happening to our SW and how if the storm just developed more gradually we could get into the better action, it's tough not get a little wistful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am getting scared myself. 60mph winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I cannot tell without the dam map behind the height lines, but it seems that the UKMET will be in the GFS camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 D I cannot tell without the dam map behind the height lines, but it seems that the UKMET will be in the GFS camp. Does it look deeper and or stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm just a little more than worried, because most people I talked to today weren't even aware of it. We've had so many smaller snowstorms this year that it doesn't seem to phase them in the slightest. Going to be a rude awakening for quite a few folks on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, I'm afraid. It drives me crazy that people treat serious weather with such a cavalier attitude. When I was out today talking to people, it was either "I had no idea" or "The weatherman is always wrong" or, something similarly irreverent. I see the same thing when severe weather threatens during the summer. The line I heard several times today was "Being a weatherman is the only job where you get paid to be wrong all the time". I don't know where that attitude comes from. I finally asked one person to tell me why he thought the weatherman was wrong all the time. To which he said, something like. "Look, all they do is look at maps, read a computer printout, and try to tell us what the weather is going to be. They have no idea what they are talking about." When I queried him about the coming blizzard, he said. "I'll believe it when I see it." ... You are right ,there is going to be a rude awakening for some people come Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, I feel embarrassed to scoff at 8-10" but considering what'll be happening to our SW and how if the storm just developed more gradually we could get into the better action, it's tough not get a little wistful. I totally agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here Sunday morning, Walmart was dead. There were two other folks stocking up on bread/essentials. Sunday afternoon/evening was packed. But most everyone I talked to had no idea we were likely getting a major ice storm. Anyone who tries to go to to work Tuesday morning, if they are lucky enough to get into their frozen vehicle, is going to have a real bad day. Went to Walmart after church today and it was packed. Ran into a few people I knew that saw the news and they were stocking up just in case. Hopefully most people will realize this is a serious storm. Most people I know just think the weather forecasters are wrong and it will miss us. I realize anything can change, but I really hope people heed the advice and are prepared, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't know, Plymouth is messed up...still looks amped up like the GFS D Does it look deeper and or stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Baro, navy still think the chicago gets 20+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here how it is looking outside of Chicago in Des Plaines, IL. I just took this 30 seconds ago. Will be posting periodic snapshots literally live during the height of the storm. I put my cheap USB web-cam outside but it comes with a very strong small white light above the lens and you can see it clearly a block away. I hope it doesent like scare someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM is like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z GGEM amped. 995-ish at 48 hours just west of EVV it looks like going off the b/w's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Baro, navy still think the chicago gets 20+. Pretty close. Honestly anywhere from 12-20"--but the blizzard threat is the big deal here. The wind fields are mind-blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z GGEM amped. 995-ish at 48 hours just west of EVV it looks like. GGEM/UKMET(probably)/GFS/12ZEuro....NAM is outlier IMO ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM/UKMET(probably)/GFS/12ZEuro....NAM is outlier IMO ATM. Pretty safe to say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM/UKMET(probably)/GFS/12ZEuro....NAM is outlier IMO ATM. 0Z NAM was junk. Typically this type of storm is exactly what the NAM was made for--but it had a poor run. 0Z GFS and now finally the GEM are much more realistic in terms of a NW curving track and rapid occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM/UKMET(probably)/GFS/12ZEuro....NAM is outlier IMO ATM. Yeah, I was saying split the difference between the RGEM and the NAM earlier, but it looks like the NAM's the one on crack. RGEM looks like it's still too far NW though (even comparing the 48 RGEM with the 48 GGEM/GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, I was saying split the difference between the RGEM and the NAM earlier, but it looks like the NAM's the one on crack. RGEM though looks like it's still too far NW though (even comparing the 48 RGEM with the 48 GGEM/GFS). Agreed...nonetheless, DVN/ORD/MKE/DET would all get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Agreed...nonetheless, DVN/ORD/MKE/DET would all get hammered. Not as hot for me though. I'm just hoping the GFS weakened it too rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0Z NAM was junk. Typically this type of storm is exactly what the NAM was made for--but it had a poor run. 0Z GFS and now finally the GEM are much more realistic in terms of a NW curving track and rapid occlusion. That be better for Chicago. Maybe GFS/NAM will creep those 2.00+QPF back into majority of NE IL tomorow if it continues to deepen more rapidily with a stronger surface low. Looks like besides NAM the 00z models are coming into a agreement for a slight furthur NW track and tad stronger and more rapid/windier blizzard than earlier projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can't tell where the surface low is at 60 hours on the GGEM. Probably tracked somewhere near Indy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GEM looks more south with the qpf though compared to 12z, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As b_i has been saying, rapid occlusion...Hr 60 shows widespread heavy snow for ORD/MKE/TOL/DET..etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Indianapolis may be smiling in relief. Heh, no so fast. GFS looks colder/icy for them versus its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As b_i has been saying, rapid occlusion...Hr 60 shows widespread heavy snow for ORD/MKE/TOL/DET..etc. What a motor. Very little after 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As b_i has been saying, rapid occlusion...Hr 60 shows widespread heavy snow for ORD/MKE/TOL/DET..etc. Occlusion means we may stay in the heavier bands longer as the low pretty much comes to a stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Heh, no so fast. GFS looks colder/icy for them versus its 12z run. Soundings still show a warmer layer above us too which flip flops starting at hour 60. We're getting ice or sleet, sleet would be much, much nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As b_i has been saying, rapid occlusion...Hr 60 shows widespread heavy snow for ORD/MKE/TOL/DET..etc. Yeah... ORD ended up with 1" of QPF in that 12hr time period... with a widespread area of .8" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Heh, no so fast. GFS looks colder/icy for them versus its 12z run. If we can't get a farther southeast track, then the backup plan might be to root for an even more rapid occlusion. Fascinating system nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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