baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The entire height field on the 18Z NAM is phase shifted W--I would give this NAM run less credence than the 12Z whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's honestly only about 2 hours slower, otherwise looks very similar. Don't mistake it for a "southwest shift", it's simply slightly slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The entire height field on the 18Z NAM is phase shifted W--I would give this NAM run less credence than the 12Z whatever happens. Ah crap, good catch. Friggin NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks colder.... kisses the 12z's idea of the freezing line going along if not north of I-70 out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's honestly only about 2 hours slower, otherwise looks very similar. Don't mistake it for a "southwest shift", it's simply slightly slower. and colder, drops my temps into the mid 20s... I knew this would happen...the cold air from 900mb to the surface is stronger with each run penetrating further south closer to the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ah crap, good catch. Friggin NAM.... Yeah I think it is just the NAM being the NAM here--I would be surprised to see massive height field swings in the 18Z GFS like this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ETA members still too far south and the RSM with its convective plotting errors, otherwise fairly sexy check this out AN AVERAGE OF MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOWCOULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 325 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ..STRONG WINTER STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF KOKOMO AND LAFAYETTE LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER SNOWFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TERRE HAUTE... INDIANAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...NEW CASTLE AND MUNCIE...WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AND PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATTER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS STRONG DEVELOPING WINTER STORM. INZ064-065-067>072-310430- /O.EXB.KIND.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/ BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD... SEYMOUR 325 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW OR ICING...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. * TIMING: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>063-310430- /O.EXT.KIND.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/ CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE- PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN- JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO... CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE... SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON 325 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW OR ICING...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. * TIMING: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 coupla mb's weaker @ 54 now 1000 vs 997 on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM HAS HORRIBLE ICE EVENT COMING and MAJOR SNOWS Hey Friv, what is HUF looking like, all ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This storm is just going to be something epic. Honestly in my 3.5 years of being an actual met I have never seen a storm of this intensity, magnitude, and impact across this part of the country. Granted--not a long time--but still. This storm will have major impacts. Kudos to the NWS for getting early warning out. Nobody should be surprised. Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like: "Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know." or "I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time." "Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." .... "National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about." I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Currently 79 at Brownsville TX and -4 in much of North Dakota....What a contrast for a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Jesus, I had over 40+ pages to catch back up on LOL. After pouring over all the 12z models I think I need a cigarette. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I was about to give my first snow/sleet/ice breakdown for LAF but now comes the 18z NAM. I think I'm just gonna hold off until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like: "Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know." or "I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time." "Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." .... "National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about." I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this.... Stocked up today and the guy at the counter was the same way. "8 inches prolly. Pffff.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like: "Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know." or "I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time." "Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." .... "National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about." I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this.... People have no clue lol. I especially love "its too late in the season"...it is only the MIDPOINT of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Funny, 15z NMM sref members beefed up the WAA snows somewhat while the 18z NAM is more meh with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 thinkin it we should see about 10" here monday through wed morning good luck to everyone down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM at 60-66 panels is one of the more impressive model frames I have ever seen. Absolutely destroys Missouri through Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone know what the euro ens. show? Not sure if it's out yet or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I Will post the full map soon. The Dynamics involved to make this happen must be intense. I believe that is way overdone for my area....I think the nam would give us much more sleet then snow. Still...I like having that arctic air mass coming south, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Jesus, I had over 40+ pages to catch back up on LOL. After pouring over all the 12z models I think I need a cigarette. Wow. Looking very good for some big totals in the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone know what the euro ens. show? Not sure if it's out yet or not. Very similar to the OP in regards to strength and positioning of surface low and QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Alright, I'm gonna bite after that 12z guidance. ORD 22-28" At least two gusts to 50KT (from ASOS/official obs) At least four gusts to 45KT Max sustained at 34KT. Blizz criteria met. 3-5" inital WAA 18-24" from the main storm. RFD gets 19-25" At least 1 gust to 50KT At least 3 gusts to 45KT Max sustained at 30KT Blizz criteria met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This NAM run is just LOL worthy. The change in the surface fields because of this phase shift in the height field with a non-linear developing storm like this are massive. Honestly I wouldn't give this any credence at this moment in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This storm is just going to be something epic. Honestly in my 3.5 years of being an actual met I have never seen a storm of this intensity, magnitude, and impact across this part of the country. Granted--not a long time--but still. This storm will have major impacts. Kudos to the NWS for getting early warning out. Nobody should be surprised. Yeah, this one is definitely for the books... Going keep this one in mind for future forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Very similar to the OP in regards to strength and positioning of surface low and QPF. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like: "Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know." or "I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time." "Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." .... "National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about." I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this.... Yikes--not what I like to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the nam is way to cold is what you are saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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