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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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It's honestly only about 2 hours slower, otherwise looks very similar. Don't mistake it for a "southwest shift", it's simply slightly slower.

and colder, drops my temps into the mid 20s...

I knew this would happen...the cold air from 900mb to the surface is stronger with each run penetrating further south closer to the SLP.

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ETA members still too far south and the RSM with its convective plotting errors, otherwise fairly sexy

f87.gif

check this out

AN AVERAGE OF MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW

COULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR NORTH

OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

:thumbsup::snowman:
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

325 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

..STRONG WINTER STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS

EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY THROUGH

WEDNESDAY. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS

SYSTEM.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE

SURFACE...HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE

SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS

WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL

INDIANA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR

EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

AT THIS TIME...NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING THE

CITIES OF KOKOMO AND LAFAYETTE LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT

A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF

SNOW. HOWEVER SNOWFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS

OF 10 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TERRE HAUTE...

INDIANAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...NEW CASTLE AND MUNCIE...WARM AIR IS

EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AND PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET OR

FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH

ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH. FURTHERMORE...STRONG

WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND

POWER LINES.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATTER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. STAY

ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS

STRONG DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

INZ064-065-067>072-310430-

/O.EXB.KIND.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/

BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...

SEYMOUR

325 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW OR

ICING...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY

BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES IS

POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN

EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70

CORRIDOR.

* TIMING: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND

CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION

WITH POSSIBLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND

POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>063-310430-

/O.EXT.KIND.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-

BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-

PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-

JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...

CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...

SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON

325 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING

THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW OR

ICING...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY

BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES IS

POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN

EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70

CORRIDOR.

* TIMING: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND

CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION

WITH POSSIBLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND

POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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This storm is just going to be something epic. Honestly in my 3.5 years of being an actual met I have never seen a storm of this intensity, magnitude, and impact across this part of the country. Granted--not a long time--but still. This storm will have major impacts. Kudos to the NWS for getting early warning out. Nobody should be surprised.

Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like:

"Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know."

or

"I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time."

"Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." ....

"National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about."

I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this....

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Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like:

"Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know."

or

"I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time."

"Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." ....

"National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about."

I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this....

Stocked up today and the guy at the counter was the same way. "8 inches prolly. Pffff.."

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Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like:

"Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know."

or

"I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time."

"Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." ....

"National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about."

I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this....

People have no clue lol. I especially love "its too late in the season"...it is only the MIDPOINT of winter!

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Alright, I'm gonna bite after that 12z guidance.

ORD 22-28"

At least two gusts to 50KT (from ASOS/official obs)

At least four gusts to 45KT

Max sustained at 34KT.

Blizz criteria met.

3-5" inital WAA

18-24" from the main storm.

RFD gets 19-25"

At least 1 gust to 50KT

At least 3 gusts to 45KT

Max sustained at 30KT

Blizz criteria met.

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This storm is just going to be something epic. Honestly in my 3.5 years of being an actual met I have never seen a storm of this intensity, magnitude, and impact across this part of the country. Granted--not a long time--but still. This storm will have major impacts. Kudos to the NWS for getting early warning out. Nobody should be surprised.

Yeah, this one is definitely for the books... Going keep this one in mind for future forecast for sure.

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Was just at a local event for my town's 125th Anniversary, and I think some people are going to be surprised, just based on the couple of overheard conversations which included quotes like:

"Ah, there's not going to be any blizzard, the weatherman is wrong 90 percent of the time, what do they know."

or

"I'm not worried, we get snow here all the time."

"Nah, weather and atmosphere aren't right for a blizzard, besides, it's too late in the season." ....

"National Weather Service has no idea what they are talking about."

I just shook my head at what I was overhearing. Some people can be so blase when it comes to the potential seriousness of things like this....

Yikes--not what I like to hear.

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