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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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hey ive just been lurking for the majority of these threads but is there anyway you could also include YKF in the bufkit? Thanks

0z NAM Bufkit for YYZ is 9-14" on 0.90" of liquid. Except for the few suppressed ETA members and one RSM member, the SREFS are closer to 1.25" on average so we're getting a feel for our basement numbers.

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This has me genuinely worried. 24-36 hours ago, these same runs were showing 50-55kt. Now we're 65-70? Yikes.

Me too--this thing has "life-threatening" dangerous blizzard written all over it. Historic is the first thing that comes to me mind. That wind field is scary and all that fluffy snow to drift and blow. Emergency services will not be able to respond if people got stuck.

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Looks like heaviest south of Chicago into North-Central IL. Looks like 3 feet almost if that verifies.

Ratios will be a bit lower down that way due to a warmer profile and somewhat less efficient snow production. This should offset the higher QPF somewhat. Widespread 20+" still looking likely though.

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0z GFS looks amped thru hour 60...then weakens dramatically and the low center "jumps" to New York state.

Hmmm...is that realistic? I could see it occluding quickly...but still.

Very interesting.

I think in the next 30hrs this will sit and stack up in southern IN and into NW OH as a more deeper solution continues. Not doubting the NW trend a little more.

Seems to be the trend with the 00z RGEM.

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0z GFS looks amped thru hour 60...then weakens dramatically and the low center "jumps" to New York state.

Hmmm...is that realistic? I could see it occluding quickly...but still.

Very interesting.

YES. This is the type of solution that is most likely to pan out. We're dealing with a different kind of animal here. This storm will likely start occluding only 18 hours after its initiation, pretty typical of rapid non-linear cyclogenesis. See the MSP blizzard in December for reference. These also feature a nice left "hook" in the track, and those model runs that show it are the ones that are grabbing my attention the most.

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hey ive just been lurking for the majority of these threads but is there anyway you could also include YKF in the bufkit? Thanks

Sorry man. PSU is the only site I can find that has it, and it's not letting me download it attm. It'll be pretty close to Toronto's numbers.

GFS shows how an early occlusion really screws us (relatively speaking).

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Me too--this thing has "life-threatening" dangerous blizzard written all over it. Historic is the first thing that comes to me mind. That wind field is scary and all that fluffy snow to drift and blow. Emergency services will not be able to respond if people got stuck.

I'm just a little more than worried, because most people I talked to today weren't even aware of it. We've had so many smaller snowstorms this year that it doesn't seem to phase them in the slightest. Going to be a rude awakening for quite a few folks on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, I'm afraid.

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Sorry man. PSU is the only site I can find that has it, and it's not letting me download it attm. It'll be pretty close to Toronto's numbers.

GFS shows how an early occlusion really screws us (relatively speaking).

I just came home and I don't have time to look back at the many pages I missed, but is there a chance that lake enhancement of Ontario could offset the lower QPF totals?

In any event, this is looking likely as Toronto's biggest snowstorm since January 1999.

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YES. This is the type of solution that is most likely to pan out. We're dealing with a different kind of animal here. This storm will likely start occluding only 18 hours after its initiation, pretty typical of rapid non-linear cyclogenesis. See the MSP blizzard in December for reference. These also feature a nice left "hook" in the track, and those model runs that show it are the ones that are grabbing my attention the most.

Thanks...appreciate the reply. :)

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I just came home and I don't have time to look back at the many pages I missed, but is there a chance that lake enhancement of Ontario could offset the lower QPF totals?

In any event, this is looking likely as Toronto's biggest snowstorm since January 1999.

Flow's no good for us. At best it veers to about 060 which would bring any kind of embedded squalls no further north than Oakville.

To come in 2nd behind Jan 2-3, 1999 it'll have to pass a whole bunch of 10-14" snowfalls Toronto's had since then (I can think of 5 off the top of my head). If the GFS is right with that rapid occlussion I can't see it happening. 8-10" is more likely.

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whats the kts for lnk (lincoln, ne) -if you have time and dont mind.. just currious b.c. the weather office in omaha thought about issuing blizzard warnings.

Omaha is on the edge. I think the NWS may be putting up blizzard warnings in eastern KS--but Omaha will be tough to reach criteria. It may be close for 3-6 hours though where there is potential to mix down 45 kts or so.

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I'm just a little more than worried, because most people I talked to today weren't even aware of it. We've had so many smaller snowstorms this year that it doesn't seem to phase them in the slightest. Going to be a rude awakening for quite a few folks on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, I'm afraid.

That is the feeling I am getting here since a number of people have said most folks in that region are not so up on the threat. Hopefully Skilling and the RPM model will grab their attention, haha. NWS can only do so much--TV and other media outlets need to jump on the bandwagon.

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I'm just a little more than worried, because most people I talked to today weren't even aware of it. We've had so many smaller snowstorms this year that it doesn't seem to phase them in the slightest. Going to be a rude awakening for quite a few folks on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, I'm afraid.

Here Sunday morning, Walmart was dead. There were two other folks stocking up on bread/essentials.

Sunday afternoon/evening was packed. But most everyone I talked to had no idea we were likely getting a major ice storm. Anyone who tries to go to to work Tuesday morning, if they are lucky enough to get into their frozen vehicle, is going to have a real bad day.

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Flow's no good for us. At best it veers to about 060 which would bring any kind of embedded squalls no further north than Oakville.

To come in 2nd behind Jan 2-3, 1999 it'll have to pass a whole bunch of 10-14" snowfalls Toronto's had since then (I can think of 5 off the top of my head). If the GFS is right with that rapid occlussion I can't see it happening. 8-10" is more likely.

Thanks. A monster snowstorm would be great, but I will gladly take 8-10" considering what happened last winter.

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Omaha is on the edge. I think the NWS may be putting up blizzard warnings in eastern KS--but Omaha will be tough to reach criteria. It may be close for 3-6 hours though where there is potential to mix down 45 kts or so.

Winds look to be pretty strong though, we got a blizzard warning last December for only 3" of snow, you really just have to get over 35 mph wind gust which looks to happen

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