Iastfan112 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How long till we get the first 72 hrs of the Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like heaviest south of Chicago into North-Central IL. Looks like 3 feet almost if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WOW. Look at that wind field WITHIN the dry adiabatic layer in northern IL. 65+ kts to mix down. This has me genuinely worried. 24-36 hours ago, these same runs were showing 50-55kt. Now we're 65-70? Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hey ive just been lurking for the majority of these threads but is there anyway you could also include YKF in the bufkit? Thanks 0z NAM Bufkit for YYZ is 9-14" on 0.90" of liquid. Except for the few suppressed ETA members and one RSM member, the SREFS are closer to 1.25" on average so we're getting a feel for our basement numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z GFS looks amped thru hour 60...then weakens dramatically and the low center "jumps" to New York state. Hmmm...is that realistic? I could see it occluding quickly...but still. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This has me genuinely worried. 24-36 hours ago, these same runs were showing 50-55kt. Now we're 65-70? Yikes. Me too--this thing has "life-threatening" dangerous blizzard written all over it. Historic is the first thing that comes to me mind. That wind field is scary and all that fluffy snow to drift and blow. Emergency services will not be able to respond if people got stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This has me genuinely worried. 24-36 hours ago, these same runs were showing 50-55kt. Now we're 65-70? Yikes. 00z GFS BUFKIT for PIA is gonna go off the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Falls apart pretty quick. I guess its a blessing it occludes because It would torch here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like heaviest south of Chicago into North-Central IL. Looks like 3 feet almost if that verifies. Ratios will be a bit lower down that way due to a warmer profile and somewhat less efficient snow production. This should offset the higher QPF somewhat. Widespread 20+" still looking likely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z GFS looks amped thru hour 60...then weakens dramatically and the low center "jumps" to New York state. Hmmm...is that realistic? I could see it occluding quickly...but still. Very interesting. I think in the next 30hrs this will sit and stack up in southern IN and into NW OH as a more deeper solution continues. Not doubting the NW trend a little more. Seems to be the trend with the 00z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WOW. Look at that wind field WITHIN the dry adiabatic layer in northern IL. 65+ kts to mix down. whats the kts for lnk (lincoln, ne) -if you have time and dont mind.. just currious b.c. the weather office in omaha thought about issuing blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z GFS looks amped thru hour 60...then weakens dramatically and the low center "jumps" to New York state. Hmmm...is that realistic? I could see it occluding quickly...but still. Very interesting. YES. This is the type of solution that is most likely to pan out. We're dealing with a different kind of animal here. This storm will likely start occluding only 18 hours after its initiation, pretty typical of rapid non-linear cyclogenesis. See the MSP blizzard in December for reference. These also feature a nice left "hook" in the track, and those model runs that show it are the ones that are grabbing my attention the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hey ive just been lurking for the majority of these threads but is there anyway you could also include YKF in the bufkit? Thanks Sorry man. PSU is the only site I can find that has it, and it's not letting me download it attm. It'll be pretty close to Toronto's numbers. GFS shows how an early occlusion really screws us (relatively speaking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I would assume with this intense a storm that the potential for thundersnow is fairly high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Me too--this thing has "life-threatening" dangerous blizzard written all over it. Historic is the first thing that comes to me mind. That wind field is scary and all that fluffy snow to drift and blow. Emergency services will not be able to respond if people got stuck. I'm just a little more than worried, because most people I talked to today weren't even aware of it. We've had so many smaller snowstorms this year that it doesn't seem to phase them in the slightest. Going to be a rude awakening for quite a few folks on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sorry man. PSU is the only site I can find that has it, and it's not letting me download it attm. It'll be pretty close to Toronto's numbers. GFS shows how an early occlusion really screws us (relatively speaking). I just came home and I don't have time to look back at the many pages I missed, but is there a chance that lake enhancement of Ontario could offset the lower QPF totals? In any event, this is looking likely as Toronto's biggest snowstorm since January 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What's with Plymouth state...the 500 maps are updated for the UKMET through hr48, but you can only see the lines, not the states/energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well, MKX did mention the potential for 40 to 60 mph wind gusts; I could see 40, but when I read 60, that seemed difficult to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 One more little intense up by the GFS and Chicago would be in the bullseye. Yep I will be watching for that possible deeper and more neg tilted storm that may pro-longed the defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 YES. This is the type of solution that is most likely to pan out. We're dealing with a different kind of animal here. This storm will likely start occluding only 18 hours after its initiation, pretty typical of rapid non-linear cyclogenesis. See the MSP blizzard in December for reference. These also feature a nice left "hook" in the track, and those model runs that show it are the ones that are grabbing my attention the most. Thanks...appreciate the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just came home and I don't have time to look back at the many pages I missed, but is there a chance that lake enhancement of Ontario could offset the lower QPF totals? In any event, this is looking likely as Toronto's biggest snowstorm since January 1999. Flow's no good for us. At best it veers to about 060 which would bring any kind of embedded squalls no further north than Oakville. To come in 2nd behind Jan 2-3, 1999 it'll have to pass a whole bunch of 10-14" snowfalls Toronto's had since then (I can think of 5 off the top of my head). If the GFS is right with that rapid occlussion I can't see it happening. 8-10" is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 whats the kts for lnk (lincoln, ne) -if you have time and dont mind.. just currious b.c. the weather office in omaha thought about issuing blizzard warnings. Omaha is on the edge. I think the NWS may be putting up blizzard warnings in eastern KS--but Omaha will be tough to reach criteria. It may be close for 3-6 hours though where there is potential to mix down 45 kts or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HI-RES models will be coming into our storm time-range later tommorow. I cant wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wouldnt a more flat precip amount track be likely further north due to the occlusion and the easterly track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm just a little more than worried, because most people I talked to today weren't even aware of it. We've had so many smaller snowstorms this year that it doesn't seem to phase them in the slightest. Going to be a rude awakening for quite a few folks on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, I'm afraid. That is the feeling I am getting here since a number of people have said most folks in that region are not so up on the threat. Hopefully Skilling and the RPM model will grab their attention, haha. NWS can only do so much--TV and other media outlets need to jump on the bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm just a little more than worried, because most people I talked to today weren't even aware of it. We've had so many smaller snowstorms this year that it doesn't seem to phase them in the slightest. Going to be a rude awakening for quite a few folks on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, I'm afraid. Here Sunday morning, Walmart was dead. There were two other folks stocking up on bread/essentials. Sunday afternoon/evening was packed. But most everyone I talked to had no idea we were likely getting a major ice storm. Anyone who tries to go to to work Tuesday morning, if they are lucky enough to get into their frozen vehicle, is going to have a real bad day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Flow's no good for us. At best it veers to about 060 which would bring any kind of embedded squalls no further north than Oakville. To come in 2nd behind Jan 2-3, 1999 it'll have to pass a whole bunch of 10-14" snowfalls Toronto's had since then (I can think of 5 off the top of my head). If the GFS is right with that rapid occlussion I can't see it happening. 8-10" is more likely. Thanks. A monster snowstorm would be great, but I will gladly take 8-10" considering what happened last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wouldnt a more flat precip amount track be likely further north due to the occlusion and the easterly track? Yeah but it also shows signals of turning into a bowling-ball looking at 500mb Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Omaha is on the edge. I think the NWS may be putting up blizzard warnings in eastern KS--but Omaha will be tough to reach criteria. It may be close for 3-6 hours though where there is potential to mix down 45 kts or so. Winds look to be pretty strong though, we got a blizzard warning last December for only 3" of snow, you really just have to get over 35 mph wind gust which looks to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Things seem to be quite different around here. Word spread pretty quickly over the last day or two about something big in the offing. I think the local TV stations and DVN has done a really good job getting the early word out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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