patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this one http://wxcaster.com/...al_snowfall.htm Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 updated milwuakee FOR TUE NT AND WED THE LATEST NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS NORTH AND SOUTH OSCILLATION WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. IT NOW IS MORE SOUTH...RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BUT NOT CONCERNED WITH FCST. CURRENT QPF IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. SNOW RATIOS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS UWM NEURAL NETWORK IS SHOWING HEAVIER RATIOS DUE TO STRONG WIND SPEEDS. AVERAGE RATIOS FOR TUE NT-WED MAY BE CLOSER TO 13 TO 1 IN FAR SE WI TO 15-18 TO 1 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THIS LOWERS OUR SNOW TOTALS BY 4-5 INCHES IN SE WI. WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT ANALYZE 00Z MODELS AND DECIDE ON NEW QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS USING LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTRIBUTION WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED AS WELL. Does it make sense for the snow ratios to be this low? I know the winds will be strong, but they mentioned in their previous discussion that models were using a 20:1 or even up to a 25:1 ratio, and they took 15:1 to be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tongboy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The lake enhancement anyone? Quite the difference... ORD NAM bufkit 29.2 DPA NAM bufkit 17.9" Those airports are about 18 miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is more stressful than the Packers run to the SB... That's all I have I can't imagine all of you on that have to worry about the ice.. Lil NW shift might help some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks. your welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I stepped outside about 30 minutes ago and was surprised at how gusty it had become. We are getting a good breeze out of the NE with gusts approaching 20. I have noticed that both the NAM and GFS have now shifted the freezing rain zone further south and east - very close to Perryville, MO and Cape Girardeau, MO into southern Illinois. The runs have slowly been shifting south and east for the last 24 hours. This could be a signal that the models are still not handling the low level cold bleed into these areas. Even though the storm track continues to shift slightly north and west the models are shifting the freezing rain zone further south and east. Just something I have been paying attention to - Models seem to have a difficult time with low - shallow cold air. One or two counties difference will mean the difference between significant ice vs just plain cold rain. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Fox 2 local detroit said 12+ inch snow storms have only happened 8 times since 1900. Twice since 1950. Also said latest models (NAM went south so totals higher). Of course teases us and says we will tell you later. Kinda surprised they would say that after 1 model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does it make sense for the snow ratios to be this low? I know the winds will be strong, but they mentioned in their previous discussion that models were using a 20:1 or even up to a 25:1 ratio, and they took 15:1 to be conservative. I think a 15-18:1 is very reasonable. Winds will be awfully strong, especially for them along the lake shore. And measurement isn't exactly going to be a perfect science either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmountainwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just returned from Gettysburg PA, and now looking at an even bigger storm here! A 15" plus storm is a rarity here in SE Iowa.. May jjust be historic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The lake enhancement anyone? Quite the difference... ORD NAM bufkit 29.2 DPA NAM bufkit 17.9" Those airports are about 18 miles apart. Deformation band in NE IL looks more healthy and longer. Lake ehancement def helping as noted on 00z NAM 66hr I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes, looks unrealistic. The NAM is back to that flat track. I am not buying that for a second. Needs to have that hook, especially with the type of cyclogenesis we're dealing with. Frustrating model... On a more important note, the 21Z SREF members continue to converge on a solution. A good deal of the ETA members are now further NW and are close to agreeing with the RSM, ARW and NMM members. The mean is also sharper with the northern cutoff, which matches with the strong high to the north and northwest of the system. Agreed. The NAM flat track looks very unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think a 15-18:1 is very reasonable. Winds will be awfully strong, especially for them along the lake shore. And measurement isn't exactly going to be a perfect science either. Measuring will be an epic headache to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z GFS coming in stronger... 1000mb SLP in South/Central Arkansas by 42hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Might need to take a road trip up the turnpike. Tulsa's NAM Bufkit.........31" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dscullom Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 [/url] His RPM model has 24 inches from ORD southeastward. Its on his facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have noticed that both the NAM and GFS have now shifted the freezing rain zone further south and east - very close to Perryville, MO and Cape Girardeau, MO into southern Illinois. The runs have slowly been shifting south and east for the last 24 hours. This could be a signal that the models are still not handling the low level cold bleed into these areas. Even though the storm track continues to shift slightly north and west the models are shifting the freezing rain zone further south and east. Just something I have been paying attention to - Models seem to have a difficult time with low - shallow cold air. One or two counties difference will mean the difference between significant ice vs just plain cold rain. Tough forecast. Thanks for the info. Very helpful for us in that neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0Z GFS is AMPED. This run is going a tad NW I think and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z NAM Bufkit for YYZ is 9-14" on 0.90" of liquid. Except for the few suppressed ETA members and one RSM member, the SREFS are closer to 1.25" on average so we're getting a feel for our basement numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0Z GFS is AMPED. This run is going a tad NW I think and stronger. 994mb in Missouri Bootheel at 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0Z GFS is AMPED. This run is going a tad NW I think and stronger. At 36, the S/W is a tad further south in Texas, but the downstream height fields reflect a bit more ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 994mb in Missouri Bootheel at 48hrs. At 36, the S/W is a tad further south in Texas, but the downstream height fields reflect a bit more ridging. This thing is ridic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This thing is ridic. Wow, 4+ mb difference, and definitely a bit more NW. Powerhouse. Edit: WOW at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 H5 center already closed off at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm gonna go with 3-5" for LAF tomorrow night, possibly mixed with sleet. Not enough confidence to call the second part of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS seems like a good median compared to the RGEM and NAM. NAM is 1000 mb, RGEM is 988 while GFS gets down to 994. Track is inbetween as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 996mb SLP between IND and LAF at 60hrs. Occluding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow...just look at the tightly packed isobars on this thing. I'd expect wind gusts to 50 mph on this thing in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the would drop 20 inches somewhere close to stl. more NW colder here, ice diminishing and sleet taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WOW. Look at that wind field WITHIN the dry adiabatic layer in northern IL. 65+ kts to mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How long till we get the first 72 hrs of the Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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