Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

I don't know which model's more inconsistent, the RGEM/GEM or the NAM lol. I'll give the NAM lots of credit though for getting on the overall solution pretty early on. A few 18z runs have been suspect though.

The GGEM takes the cake for being the most inconsistent closely followed by the NAM. The GFS has made small changes per run typically.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 972
  • Created
  • Last Reply

988 vs 1000. LOL gotta love the differences. AFD's dont mention the RGEM or canadian very much. Now that I think of it I dont see the NAM mentioned a lot either. Also the canadian is going from a low in WV to possibly the most NW solution.

Interestingly the MKX (MKE) AFDs mention the Canadian a lot. In fact, it seems every AFD for the past few days has referenced what the Canadian has done compared with the Euro and the GFS. Who knows why.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This.

RGEM can get overly amped with the polar front. A known bias.

Yes, looks unrealistic.

The NAM is back to that flat track. I am not buying that for a second. Needs to have that hook, especially with the type of cyclogenesis we're dealing with. Frustrating model...

On a more important note, the 21Z SREF members continue to converge on a solution. A good deal of the ETA members are now further NW and are close to agreeing with the RSM, ARW and NMM members. The mean is also sharper with the northern cutoff, which matches with the strong high to the north and northwest of the system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Werent WSW issued a bit early for eastern nebraska and kansas? If the NAM is right the heavy precip would stay further east. Maybe the high ratios will still lead to WSW criteria snows. BTW can we lock in that snowfall map? It's pretty favorable for a lot of people in here.

They'll still easily verify in the Topeka CWA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have noticed that both the NAM and GFS have now shifted the freezing rain zone further south and east - very close to Perryville, MO and Cape Girardeau, MO into southern Illinois. The runs have slowly been shifting south and east for the last 24 hours.

This could be a signal that the models are still not handling the low level cold bleed into these areas. Even though the storm track continues to shift slightly north and west the models are shifting the freezing rain zone further south and east.

Just something I have been paying attention to -

Models seem to have a difficult time with low - shallow cold air. One or two counties difference will mean the difference between significant ice vs just plain cold rain. Tough forecast.

So are you saying the freezing rain zones will actually be further to the NW?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

updated milwuakee

FOR TUE NT AND WED THE LATEST NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS NORTH AND

SOUTH OSCILLATION WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM MODEL RUN TO

MODEL RUN. IT NOW IS MORE SOUTH...RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BUT

NOT CONCERNED WITH FCST. CURRENT QPF IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE 12Z

GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. SNOW RATIOS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS

UWM NEURAL NETWORK IS SHOWING HEAVIER RATIOS DUE TO STRONG WIND

SPEEDS. AVERAGE RATIOS FOR TUE NT-WED MAY BE CLOSER TO 13 TO 1 IN

FAR SE WI TO 15-18 TO 1 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THIS LOWERS OUR

SNOW TOTALS BY 4-5 INCHES IN SE WI. WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT

ANALYZE 00Z MODELS AND DECIDE ON NEW QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS USING

LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTRIBUTION WILL

HAVE TO BE DETERMINED AS WELL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...