baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't know which model's more inconsistent, the RGEM/GEM or the NAM lol. I'll give the NAM lots of credit though for getting on the overall solution pretty early on. A few 18z runs have been suspect though. The GGEM takes the cake for being the most inconsistent closely followed by the NAM. The GFS has made small changes per run typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 RGEM way stronger at 48 hours NAM's probably too weak but the RGEM has a habit of overamplifying storms, especially in its later range (36-48). Pending the other guidance, I'd probably split the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z rgem at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM's probably too weak but the RGEM has a habit of overamplifying storms, especially in its later range (36-48). Pending the other guidance, I'd probably split the difference. This. RGEM can get overly amped with the polar front. A known bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM's probably too weak but the RGEM has a habit of overamplifying storms, especially in its later range (36-48). Pending the other guidance, I'd probably split the difference. I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The UK showed the surface low near St. Louis too right? That model has been bouncing around a lot too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 988 vs 1000. LOL gotta love the differences. AFD's dont mention the RGEM or canadian very much. Now that I think of it I dont see the NAM mentioned a lot either. Also the canadian is going from a low in WV to possibly the most NW solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 21z SREF mean total qpf valid at 84. The axis continues to be shunted south by a couple of the more suppressed ETA members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 RGEM really wraps up NW. Definitely the western outlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z NAM shows 20" of snow and .68" of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We have now officially arrived we are in STORM MODE operating status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z nam clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NOW Bufkit's updated for ORD: Still has almost 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Werent WSW issued a bit early for eastern nebraska and kansas? If the NAM is right the heavy precip would stay further east. Maybe the high ratios will still lead to WSW criteria snows. BTW can we lock in that snowfall map? It's pretty favorable for a lot of people in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z NAM for ORD: QPF: 1.47" Snowfall: 29.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 988 vs 1000. LOL gotta love the differences. AFD's dont mention the RGEM or canadian very much. Now that I think of it I dont see the NAM mentioned a lot either. Also the canadian is going from a low in WV to possibly the most NW solution. Interestingly the MKX (MKE) AFDs mention the Canadian a lot. In fact, it seems every AFD for the past few days has referenced what the Canadian has done compared with the Euro and the GFS. Who knows why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z NAM for ORD: QPF: 1.47" Snowfall: 29.2" Still looking good even with this wobble south.. I'm thinking we have a little wiggle room either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This. RGEM can get overly amped with the polar front. A known bias. Yes, looks unrealistic. The NAM is back to that flat track. I am not buying that for a second. Needs to have that hook, especially with the type of cyclogenesis we're dealing with. Frustrating model... On a more important note, the 21Z SREF members continue to converge on a solution. A good deal of the ETA members are now further NW and are close to agreeing with the RSM, ARW and NMM members. The mean is also sharper with the northern cutoff, which matches with the strong high to the north and northwest of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Werent WSW issued a bit early for eastern nebraska and kansas? If the NAM is right the heavy precip would stay further east. Maybe the high ratios will still lead to WSW criteria snows. BTW can we lock in that snowfall map? It's pretty favorable for a lot of people in here. They'll still easily verify in the Topeka CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z nam clown map What web site address is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We have now officially arrived we are in STORM MODE operating status never thought id see the day great job by the mods and Randy and company! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What web site address is that? this one http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DTX put out a multimedia briefing..the first in the history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What web site address is that? http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have noticed that both the NAM and GFS have now shifted the freezing rain zone further south and east - very close to Perryville, MO and Cape Girardeau, MO into southern Illinois. The runs have slowly been shifting south and east for the last 24 hours. This could be a signal that the models are still not handling the low level cold bleed into these areas. Even though the storm track continues to shift slightly north and west the models are shifting the freezing rain zone further south and east. Just something I have been paying attention to - Models seem to have a difficult time with low - shallow cold air. One or two counties difference will mean the difference between significant ice vs just plain cold rain. Tough forecast. So are you saying the freezing rain zones will actually be further to the NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 updated milwuakee FOR TUE NT AND WED THE LATEST NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS NORTH AND SOUTH OSCILLATION WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. IT NOW IS MORE SOUTH...RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BUT NOT CONCERNED WITH FCST. CURRENT QPF IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. SNOW RATIOS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS UWM NEURAL NETWORK IS SHOWING HEAVIER RATIOS DUE TO STRONG WIND SPEEDS. AVERAGE RATIOS FOR TUE NT-WED MAY BE CLOSER TO 13 TO 1 IN FAR SE WI TO 15-18 TO 1 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THIS LOWERS OUR SNOW TOTALS BY 4-5 INCHES IN SE WI. WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT ANALYZE 00Z MODELS AND DECIDE ON NEW QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS USING LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTRIBUTION WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DTX put out a multimedia briefing..the first in the history? No they have done it before for sever weather this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow. New (21z) SREF 12hr snowfall mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So are you saying the freezing rain zones will actually be further to the NW? Seems to me more like the area for freezing rain is larger than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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