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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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I love the 00z NAM, safely ALL snow here and now with some room to breathe as well!

How about here in Toledo? I see it shows 1.5-1.75" of precipitation here. If that was all snow, it would be over a foot even with awful ratios.

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The nam blasts Wisconsin, relax....

the vort really is taking a further south trek causing the SLP to pop out really far south...pretty impressive.

Last night's 00z NAM had the surface low near Corpus Christi...I don't really see this south trend as much as you do.

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The nam blasts Wisconsin, relax....

the vort really is taking a further south trek causing the SLP to pop out really far south...pretty impressive.

Yeah. I just feel like a 30 mile shift SE will take us from 12-18 for the main event forecasted right now to about 6 inches, which is a large difference. Therefore, I'm taking any SE shift very seriously.

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That 1060 high pressure in Montana is why I was having difficulty believing that this storm would trend more nw in earlier runs with precip. We are in the fine tuning mode now and the models will stop waffling like the spinning top at the end of the film Inception and fall into place.

They won't. With this type of nonlinear development and positive feedback--they will shift probably every run up to the event. It is why individual runs verbatim should be taken with a grain of salt. Ensemble trends work better here.

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