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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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Shucks!

Didn't run BUF, but it looks like LAF has a better chance of staying all snow with this one, no?

Didn't run BUFKIT yet but a cursory look at the soundings shows snow tomorrow. Then the precip type flops around between snow and sleet before changing to all snow.

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I believe we can safely say that the upcoming 0z GFS and EURO are among the most important ever run for the Midwest with respect to a winter system. This run will be used in final forecast decisions for numerous NWS offices and thus commercial and govt agencies that have to make decisions on closings, etc. It will affect billions of dollars in commerce. This could be a once-every-30 years type system, and we've had computer models for about that long. This is the last run before it becomes basically a now-cast. So that's evidence to me that this upcoming run could indeed be among the most important ever run.

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With every run the models have slowly dug the the southern vort more and more.

look at it on the RUC now and NAM...it's way into Mexico

this is causing the SLP to pop out so far south, the cold can filter south.

I know runs a few days ago had a weaker vort in New Mexico/Arizona not a stronger vort max well into mexico

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I believe we can safely say that the upcoming 0z GFS and EURO are among the most important ever run for the Midwest with respect to a winter system. This run will be used in final forecast decisions for numerous NWS offices and thus commercial and govt agencies that have to make decisions on closings, etc. It will affect billions of dollars in commerce. This could be a once-every-30 years type system, and we've had computer models for about that long. This is the last run before it becomes basically a now-cast. So that's evidence to me that this upcoming run could indeed be among the most important ever run.

lol.Computer models have been around longer than that.

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Currently 1241 people on the weather board and apparently this is not considered good enough for "Storm Mode". I guess the EC only counts.

Thats becuase for the most part we don;t have the problems here that they usually do in the east coast threads

anyhow

if you look at the NAM sim radar its almost like part one and part two merge..

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