Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DGEX 18z make me laugh: Wrong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thank you NAM FOR THE FALSE HOPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've been holding off on a call for a reason. My fault it has changed. I went out around 4 and got this at Lowes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Might lead to a further south sfc low track. Delicate balancing act. very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DGEX 18z makes me laugh: The accumulating snow on the DGEX is not from this storm, but from the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My fault it has changed. I went out around 4 and got this at Lowes... Then the Chicago and Milwaukee posters know where to look if this verifies: both cities get less than 6 inches on the NAM I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Then the Chicago and Milwaukee posters know where to look if this verifies: both cities get less than 6 inches on the NAM I believe. Definitely more than 6". At least for Chicago. Probably for MKE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And like I've said, I had a feeling this one may not pan out as some of that energy in the earlier 12Z runs today was yet unsampled....now that we have full sampling on the West coast this might be the start of sending this system East and weaker. If the GFS and Euro go East ....uh oh is all I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Then the Chicago and Milwaukee posters know where to look if this verifies: both cities get less than 6 inches on the NAM I believe. I can take the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Only thing to take from the NAM here is that it corrected its 18Z height field phase shift issue. Otherwise--I don't necessarily buy the SE shift yet. It could very well be the NAM just having issues. I would wait for the GFS and Euro before taking this run as a potential shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My fault it has changed. I went out around 4 and got this at Lowes... I couldn't find my ruler... buying a yardstick was a real bad idea lol. I should have known better, i'm pretty superstitious. Hopefully just the NAM fooking up but I'm having some doubts its is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My fault it has changed. I went out around 4 and got this at Lowes... You supplying the power to all of Kokomo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thank you NAM FOR THE FALSE HOPE. [twisterdatapagesnowfallmap] any chance that has counties? (to see if im in the 8-10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Only thing to take from the NAM here is that it corrected its 18Z height field phase shift issue. Otherwise--I don't necessarily buy the SE shift yet. It could very well be the NAM just having issues. I would wait for the GFS and Euro before taking this run as a potential shift. This is gonna be a classic nowcast like you said. Potential for rapid feedback cyclogenesis can greatly alter the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Only thing to take from the NAM here is that it corrected its 18Z height field phase shift issue. Otherwise--I don't necessarily buy the SE shift yet. It could very well be the NAM just having issues. I would wait for the GFS and Euro before taking this run as a potential shift. I know prudence is on your side, and you are totally correct. But a 50-100 mile shift to the SE would really help me out. I did notice the 0z NAM that just came out was a touch to the SE, even seeming to show the low center passing through NW Tennessee instead of the Missouri bootheel or even St. Louis as previous runs have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Chicago gets screwed...they only get 15-20" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wrong system. Bahahaha, dangit. I did it again! *pulls trigger* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is gonna be a classic nowcast like you said. Potential for rapid feedback cyclogenesis can greatly alter the details. Exactly--a lot like the SNE Noreaster a few weeks ago. Watching this storm developing Monday night/Tuesday will be interesting as we track the pressure falls/surface pressure etc. If it gets going even a tad earlier or later--the feedback process will change the overall track immensely. We all know how well the guidance did with that Noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Chicago gets screwed...they only get 15-20" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 will be heading to LOT shortly to shadow Gino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Only thing to take from the NAM here is that it corrected its 18Z height field phase shift issue. Otherwise--I don't necessarily buy the SE shift yet. It could very well be the NAM just having issues. I would wait for the GFS and Euro before taking this run as a potential shift. I do not think it is the NAM having issues but agree on being skeptical of the SE track. It is going to wobble in future tracks like a hurricane. Personally I have always went with the "it takes two good launches" for the NWP to get a good idea once the system comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Chicago gets screwed...they only get 15-20" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Exactly--a lot like the SNE Noreaster a few weeks ago. Watch this beast developing tomorrow will be fun as we track the pressure falls/surface pressure etc. If it gets going even a tad earlier or later--the feedback process will change the overall track immensely. We all know how well the guidance did with that Noreaster This type of scenario seems like it's right up the RUC's alley. Maybe not great but perhaps better than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 36hrs, 1060mb high in northern MT. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Then the Chicago and Milwaukee posters know where to look if this verifies: both cities get less than 6 inches on the NAM I believe. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Chicago gets screwed...they only get 15-20" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well, just eliminating the NAM drift issue is going to make this a better run QPF wise for YYZ. Crosshairs of a trowal structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 18z GFS had what I thought was a ever so slight shift SE and heavier QPF for me. Maybe this will be shown better on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's actually more than that...still snowing past 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I would like to see a little winter precip. Rain is boring like watching paint dry... So a shift this way would be good then everyones happy! Just not a crippling ice event... Dont want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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