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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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And like I've said, I had a feeling this one may not pan out as some of that energy in the earlier 12Z runs today was yet unsampled....now that we have full sampling on the West coast this might be the start of sending this system East and weaker. If the GFS and Euro go East ....uh oh is all I can say.

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Only thing to take from the NAM here is that it corrected its 18Z height field phase shift issue. Otherwise--I don't necessarily buy the SE shift yet. It could very well be the NAM just having issues. I would wait for the GFS and Euro before taking this run as a potential shift.

This is gonna be a classic nowcast like you said. Potential for rapid feedback cyclogenesis can greatly alter the details.

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Only thing to take from the NAM here is that it corrected its 18Z height field phase shift issue. Otherwise--I don't necessarily buy the SE shift yet. It could very well be the NAM just having issues. I would wait for the GFS and Euro before taking this run as a potential shift.

I know prudence is on your side, and you are totally correct. But a 50-100 mile shift to the SE would really help me out. I did notice the 0z NAM that just came out was a touch to the SE, even seeming to show the low center passing through NW Tennessee instead of the Missouri bootheel or even St. Louis as previous runs have shown.

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This is gonna be a classic nowcast like you said. Potential for rapid feedback cyclogenesis can greatly alter the details.

Exactly--a lot like the SNE Noreaster a few weeks ago. Watching this storm developing Monday night/Tuesday will be interesting as we track the pressure falls/surface pressure etc. If it gets going even a tad earlier or later--the feedback process will change the overall track immensely. We all know how well the guidance did with that Noreaster smile.gif

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Only thing to take from the NAM here is that it corrected its 18Z height field phase shift issue. Otherwise--I don't necessarily buy the SE shift yet. It could very well be the NAM just having issues. I would wait for the GFS and Euro before taking this run as a potential shift.

I do not think it is the NAM having issues but agree on being skeptical of the SE track. It is going to wobble in future tracks like a hurricane. Personally I have always went with the "it takes two good launches" for the NWP to get a good idea once the system comes ashore.

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Exactly--a lot like the SNE Noreaster a few weeks ago. Watch this beast developing tomorrow will be fun as we track the pressure falls/surface pressure etc. If it gets going even a tad earlier or later--the feedback process will change the overall track immensely. We all know how well the guidance did with that Noreaster smile.gif

This type of scenario seems like it's right up the RUC's alley. Maybe not great but perhaps better than other models.

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