Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 My call for Kokomo/Howard County 6-10 inches of snow 1-2 inches of sleet some icing but nothing significant for us I hope we get that much snow but I'm doubtful. I'm also concerned about the ice threat sneaking up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks similar to my untrained eye @ 24, Baro or Ocean do you care to comment. Dprog/Dt to me looks like it's closer to 12z than 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does it pass through the bootheel of Missouri or near St Louis? I'd take either, but rather near St Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 by 30h, the phase shift is becoming apparent likely will be a bit SE and slower to occlude i imagine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 decent WAA snows over IL for round one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Very similar to that 12Z run I think so far too. Not a lot of huge changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 36 hrs the H5 heights across the great lakes are still a bit lower than the 12z, which is something I don't want to see. Also, a bit lower precip here with the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is colder for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well NAM corrected it crazy height field screw up from the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is colder for me. That first part is looking fairly decent for snow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 through 24, 0z NAm moving the trough along faster in the SW looking for the phase shift error here, should be more apparent in future panels Everything at H5 has been shifted significantly further E, which means it may have corrected that phase shift error that b_i and HPC pointed out. You can really see it at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well NAM corrected it crazy height field screw up from the 18Z run. yes sir, already looking nasty at 42hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Colder and significantly more moisture in that first batch for central IN. Really interested to see the soundings when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Everything at H5 has been shifted significantly further E, which means it may have corrected that phase shift error that b_i and HPC pointed out. You can really see it at 42. Yeah the NAM definitely corrected that ugly 18Z phase shift. Looks much more realistic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe it'll be a sleet storm and I won't even have to go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks east too my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Everything at H5 has been shifted significantly further E, which means it may have corrected that phase shift error that b_i and HPC pointed out. You can really see it at 42. Wasn't the 18z NAM already east of the 12Z NAM? Why is it a good thing the H5 is shifted east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That first part is looking fairly decent for snow at least. Heck of a change to the forecast if this is believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM went WAA crazy in NW Ohio. I know, the front end snows could be impressive across northern Ohio, easily 6-8" before the "main show" and whatever precip that may bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wasn't the 18z NAM already east of the 12Z NAM? Why is it a good thing the H5 is shifted east? Can't say for sure at the surface, but aloft it was not. And it was a modelling error so I would think the reason it's a good thing is self evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Heck of a change to the forecast if this is believable. All snow for you? Still nice and icy down by Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah the NAM definitely corrected that ugly 18Z phase shift. Looks much more realistic here. big implications for us up here thanks for picking that up earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Can't say for sure at the surface, but aloft it was not. And it was a modelling error so I would think the reason it's a good thing is self evident. The surface low had definitely shifted south a tad, but I'm not sure in terms of west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Heck of a change to the forecast if this is believable. I've been holding off on a call for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the intensification at the upper levels looks to be slower and further east than the 12z not sure what it means for the eastern lakes, but considering what the phase shift did, perhaps it will be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The surface low had definitely shifted south a tad, but I'm not sure in terms of west to east. Seems to be south, east, and weaker to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the intensification at the upper levels looks to be slower and further east than the 12z not sure what it means for the eastern lakes, but considering what the phase shift did, perhaps it will be better? Might lead to a further south sfc low track. Delicate balancing act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Chicago doesnt get hit nearly as hard as they did on previous runs. Maybe this is just the NAM being stupid, or this is a late, sudden shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Certainly a little weaker and farther east with the mid level lows compared to the 12z. I'm going to need it to trend stronger again on tomorrow's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DGEX 18z makes me laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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