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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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As someone that has seen a lot of maps in this profession of fantasy storms, or models that print something out ominously and then only correct back to reality, this storm is simply amazing. I still have a part of me that can't help but to say we are going to see some kind of correction and temper these amounts down a bit, but nothing really seems to be happening like that. We just have such a dynamically strong storm and an impressive baroclinic zone feeding this. One thing I've noticed is some of the models have gradually been moving those 700 and 850mb lows a hair further to the left. That might concern me just a bit if I was in the Eastern half of the heavy snow band. Also what Beau said earlier is very important- the 12Z data may not have captured everything in its entirety but the 00Z ingested for tonights runs should have nearly everything. Part of me just wants to temper expectations a bit and tell folks that are expecting nearly two feet of snow not to be upset if its 6" or so less than that total. I've just seen models to many times be overly aggressive and not capture things properly. That all being said, this is a serious, serious storm and please do not take it lightly make sure your friends and family know whats coming. This is one for the ages and consistency has been remarkably well for some time now. I know a few days ago I said a once in a ten to twenty year storm, this is going to more likely be a once in a 40+ year type storm.

well said Justin. At nearly 50 yrs old and a weather nut since I was 5 yrs. old(John Coleman,1st NOAA radio at 6 yrs. old) the maps,AFD's and forecasts are beyond belief....hard to believe it will verify.....:huh:

Edit: but the global warmingstas of this world need this to teach them how mother nature actually operates :rolleyes:

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As someone that has seen a lot of maps in this profession of fantasy storms, or models that print something out ominously and then only correct back to reality, this storm is simply amazing. I still have a part of me that can't help but to say we are going to see some kind of correction and temper these amounts down a bit, but nothing really seems to be happening like that. We just have such a dynamically strong storm and an impressive baroclinic zone feeding this. One thing I've noticed is some of the models have gradually been moving those 700 and 850mb lows a hair further to the left. That might concern me just a bit if I was in the Eastern half of the heavy snow band. Also what Beau said earlier is very important- the 12Z data may not have captured everything in its entirety but the 00Z ingested for tonights runs should have nearly everything. Part of me just wants to temper expectations a bit and tell folks that are expecting nearly two feet of snow not to be upset if its 6" or so less than that total. I've just seen models to many times be overly aggressive and not capture things properly. That all being said, this is a serious, serious storm and please do not take it lightly make sure your friends and family know whats coming. This is one for the ages and consistency has been remarkably well for some time now. I know a few days ago I said a once in a ten to twenty year storm, this is going to more likely be a once in a 40+ year type storm.

What's interesting too about the mid level centers is that despite the GFS surface low coming a hair south at 18z, the 850 low is almost on top of the Euro from 12z.

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Few questions to pass some time. First off is that energy down by the gulf now helping to moisten up the gulf and areas north for our storm or is that irrelevant. Secondly this front end snow, is that the first system to the north scooting by or is this front end snow part of the big storm from the northern stream phasing with the low that came into california. Thanks

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Yeah, I could very realistically skip Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. However, I would HAVE to be back by Friday. I have a 4x4, so I think I'd be fine. I don't know. I do NOT want to miss something like this because I don't know when another chance like this would happen.

I say go see the storm. I was fortunate enough to be in the right place for the Blizzard of '93 and '96. I remember tons of details about both of those storms and I remember nothing about the classes and work I missed during them.

Very jealous of the potential here, first time I've missed living in Chicago.

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<br /><br />

<br />

If you mean because they missed the ice, I'd think they'd be relieved.<br />

But now what will they do with the 3 gallons of milk they bought today? Its my normal shopping day, and the place was INSANE. Worse than Christmas Eve.

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

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