Baum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As someone that has seen a lot of maps in this profession of fantasy storms, or models that print something out ominously and then only correct back to reality, this storm is simply amazing. I still have a part of me that can't help but to say we are going to see some kind of correction and temper these amounts down a bit, but nothing really seems to be happening like that. We just have such a dynamically strong storm and an impressive baroclinic zone feeding this. One thing I've noticed is some of the models have gradually been moving those 700 and 850mb lows a hair further to the left. That might concern me just a bit if I was in the Eastern half of the heavy snow band. Also what Beau said earlier is very important- the 12Z data may not have captured everything in its entirety but the 00Z ingested for tonights runs should have nearly everything. Part of me just wants to temper expectations a bit and tell folks that are expecting nearly two feet of snow not to be upset if its 6" or so less than that total. I've just seen models to many times be overly aggressive and not capture things properly. That all being said, this is a serious, serious storm and please do not take it lightly make sure your friends and family know whats coming. This is one for the ages and consistency has been remarkably well for some time now. I know a few days ago I said a once in a ten to twenty year storm, this is going to more likely be a once in a 40+ year type storm. well said Justin. At nearly 50 yrs old and a weather nut since I was 5 yrs. old(John Coleman,1st NOAA radio at 6 yrs. old) the maps,AFD's and forecasts are beyond belief....hard to believe it will verify..... Edit: but the global warmingstas of this world need this to teach them how mother nature actually operates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As someone that has seen a lot of maps in this profession of fantasy storms, or models that print something out ominously and then only correct back to reality, this storm is simply amazing. I still have a part of me that can't help but to say we are going to see some kind of correction and temper these amounts down a bit, but nothing really seems to be happening like that. We just have such a dynamically strong storm and an impressive baroclinic zone feeding this. One thing I've noticed is some of the models have gradually been moving those 700 and 850mb lows a hair further to the left. That might concern me just a bit if I was in the Eastern half of the heavy snow band. Also what Beau said earlier is very important- the 12Z data may not have captured everything in its entirety but the 00Z ingested for tonights runs should have nearly everything. Part of me just wants to temper expectations a bit and tell folks that are expecting nearly two feet of snow not to be upset if its 6" or so less than that total. I've just seen models to many times be overly aggressive and not capture things properly. That all being said, this is a serious, serious storm and please do not take it lightly make sure your friends and family know whats coming. This is one for the ages and consistency has been remarkably well for some time now. I know a few days ago I said a once in a ten to twenty year storm, this is going to more likely be a once in a 40+ year type storm. What's interesting too about the mid level centers is that despite the GFS surface low coming a hair south at 18z, the 850 low is almost on top of the Euro from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Few questions to pass some time. First off is that energy down by the gulf now helping to moisten up the gulf and areas north for our storm or is that irrelevant. Secondly this front end snow, is that the first system to the north scooting by or is this front end snow part of the big storm from the northern stream phasing with the low that came into california. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks for posting the RGEM 54 Prinsburg.....you are a real asset to the board! looking at 500, the difference in the 546 height line vs the west shifted 18z NAM ...is the entire state of MO and then some ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The correct 18z GFS clown map FWIW. Don't know why but I laughed hardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z nam should be starting shortly. ( i hope-dont know if this computers clock is correct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Could be the most epic bust of all time. <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /> Gonba be alot of ticked off people in Indy metro! Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gonba be alot of ticked off people in Indy metro! Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk If you mean because they missed the ice, I'd think they'd be relieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks for posting the RGEM 54 Prinsburg.....you are a real asset to the board! looking at 500, the difference in the 546 height line vs the west shifted 18z NAM ...is the entire state of MO and then some ! no problem and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z nam should be starting shortly. ( i hope-dont know if this computers clock is correct) 7:45 central so 10 mins. I heard this was the most important run of the NAM ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My call for Kokomo/Howard County 6-10 inches of snow 1-2 inches of sleet some icing but nothing significant for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 7:45 central so 10 mins. I heard this was the most important run of the NAM ever. thanks (updated time on computer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This looks to be absolutely epic here in NW Ind. Depending on the lake effect band placement on Wednesday, my thought here is 2'+ perhaps nudging up to 3'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here is what I think will happen here in Findlay for this storm: 10-14 inches of snow light ice/sleet accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 New record for this region? 146 User(s) are reading this topic<BR sab="2931">94 members, 44 guests, 8 anonymous users Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let the northwest trend continue (at least for 60 or 90 miles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 nam has initalized and is out to hour 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let the northwest trend continue (at least for 60 or 90 miles). 60 miles might be asking a bit much. Easily could slide back a little southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow NOAA NWS needs to update their server. SOO SLow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 60 miles might be asking a bit much. Easily could slide back a little southeast. :gun_bandana::gun_bandana:........NW TREND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So far similar the 18z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z looks like the 12z NAM so far. Should be like 12z or a tad se but defintley farther nw then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pathfinder Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, I could very realistically skip Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. However, I would HAVE to be back by Friday. I have a 4x4, so I think I'd be fine. I don't know. I do NOT want to miss something like this because I don't know when another chance like this would happen. I say go see the storm. I was fortunate enough to be in the right place for the Blizzard of '93 and '96. I remember tons of details about both of those storms and I remember nothing about the classes and work I missed during them. Very jealous of the potential here, first time I've missed living in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> If you mean because they missed the ice, I'd think they'd be relieved.<br /> But now what will they do with the 3 gallons of milk they bought today? Its my normal shopping day, and the place was INSANE. Worse than Christmas Eve. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Impressive snowfall rates and winds even on the 18z run of Bufkit. I imagine it was similar for areas upstream. 00z should be fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 :gun_bandana::gun_bandana:........NW TREND That's what I want for mby. Doesn't mean it's realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks similar to my untrained eye @ 24, Baro or Ocean do you care to comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 through 24, 0z NAm moving the trough along faster in the SW looking for the phase shift error here, should be more apparent in future panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HR 33 is really similar to 12z HR 45. Stronger then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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