Snowman99 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What a mess. Looks like some freezing drizzle as early as tomorrow midday mixed with showers of sleet/freezing rain. Main storm begins to push in Tuesday morning and that is when it gets ugly. Right now--considering this may track a tad NW once more run--WAA will likely be stouter in the mid-levels with heavy fzra/sleet. Maybe some snow early too but I think this will be more of a big ice storm through the daytime hours Tuesday. Tuesday night the mid levels cool as the storm pushes over the area and heights crash. SHould change it back over to snow--and heavy snow at that by Tuesday evening. Main defo band will prolly be NW of the region--but it wouldn't surprise me if you get a good bit of accumulating snow on the back end with significant blowing snow and strong winds into Wednesday. Thank you sir for your insight, hoping to get 6-10 inches of snow after the turnover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 should we start a seperate "appetizer" thread for the monday/monday night WAA snows..sort of a seperate system and many places have WWA out for just that part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This set of threads is amazingly epic. And the storm is only just beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That may be a bit amped--but the NAM is getting close. The NAM had a bad height field this run--but the 0Z run may very well track a tick NW and deeper which would be close to the UK. The trend is clear--since coming onshore--that southern stream wave is stronger than earlier projected by the guidance--and tiny amplitude changes in the eventual wave over such an unstable baroclinic zone can result in large intensity/track changes. It is a classic example of non-linear positive feedback forcing. Do you think the NWS GRB discussion where the meteorologist thought it might trend a bit more northwest was well-stated? Do you agree with his thoughts? I ask because I'm still worried about a SE trend which I can't afford due to the abrupt gradient between snows of over a foot and snows of 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 should we start a seperate "appetizer" thread for the monday/monday night WAA snows..sort of a seperate system and many places have WWA out for just that part no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 should we start a seperate "appetizer" thread for the monday/monday night WAA snows..sort of a seperate system and many places have WWA out for just that part I would say keep it in here for archive purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you think the NWS GRB discussion where the meteorologist thought it might trend a bit more northwest was well-stated? Do you agree with his thoughts? I ask because I'm still worried about a SE trend which I can't afford due to the abrupt gradient between snows of over a foot and snows of 3-6 inches. I will have to read it to see his thoughts-I can't say exactly without knowing. That said--if this gets too amped and rapidly occludes--it will track NW early then the low will be shunted more eastward--that is another possibility for those on the northern edge of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you think that makes something like the 18z UKMET more likely with its 990 mb low near St Louis? the 06 & 18Z of the rgem has data out to 54...the 18Z 54hr rgem has 996 L right over st louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the 06 & 18Z of the rgem has data out to 54...the 18Z 54hr rgem has 996 L right over st louis Say what? I didn't know they had it out to 54. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 the 06 & 18Z of the rgem has data out to 54...the 18Z 54hr rgem has 996 L right over st louis Could you post a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dont Believe that map is up to date wrong time Yuck! This is totally different than most of the other runs/models, and would be terrible for most of the areas that are expected to get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Say what? I didn't know they had it out to 54. Can you post? sure...give me a few minutes to run it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This set of threads is amazingly epic. And the storm is only just beginning. Could be the most epic bust of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks underdone, except in Ohio where it looks overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 People need to check the map times more carefully before posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yuck! This is totally different than most of the other runs/models, and would be terrible for most of the areas that are expected to get dumped on. that map cant be right are you sure that is todays? todaus 18z run has almost an inch of precip in SE WI yet no snow on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I will have to read it to see his thoughts-I can't say exactly without knowing. That said--if this gets too amped and rapidly occludes--it will track NW early then the low will be shunted more eastward--that is another possibility for those on the northern edge of this storm. Whatever works, though a 12Z repeat would be fine, preferably slightly S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is a cross section of the 12z GFS valid at 00z Wednesday (Tuesday evening). It runs from roughly near Springfield, IL to near Waterloo, IA (through the Quad Cities). Yellow is omega again (more than adequate all the way through Cedar Rapids). Cyan is fgen (strong near PIA through MLI). Salmon is temperature (omega collocated through the DGZ). And the image is EPV again. Blue values are below zero (unstable), and there is a large area from central Illinois through the Quad Cities. This is suggestive of banded, convective snow fall and enhanced rates underneath these features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Please delete the image in a reply so we don't have to see it over and over again. It makes it less cluttered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the 06 & 18Z of the rgem has data out to 54...the 18Z 54hr rgem has 996 L right over st louis must be running a special package for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Please delete the image in a reply so we don't have to see it over and over again. It makes it less cluttered. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The correct 18z GFS clown map FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is a cross section of the 12z GFS valid at 00z Wednesday (Tuesday evening). It runs from roughly near Springfield, IL to near Waterloo, IA (through the Quad Cities). Yellow is omega again (more than adequate all the way through Cedar Rapids). Cyan is fgen (strong near PIA through MLI). Salmon is temperature (omega collocated through the DGZ). And the image is EPV again. Blue values are below zero (unstable), and there is a large area from central Illinois through the Quad Cities. This is suggestive of banded, convective snow fall and enhanced rates underneath these features. That's really interesting, I was actually able to read that with your explanation. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Say what? I didn't know they had it out to 54. Can you post? the rgem low resolution has had grib data out to 54 on it's 06 & 18z runs for awhile now but here's the slp plot for 54...excuse the crappy map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks great prinsburg_wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Never mind. I just realize that was the map from two days ago. Can you delete your post? Gonna freak out a lot of people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 and the rgem 500 54 height Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The correct 18z GFS clown map FWIW. Tippecanoe County has almost a 10" spread on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I did go ahead and deleted my post in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As someone that has seen a lot of maps in this profession of fantasy storms, or models that print something out ominously and then only correct back to reality, this storm is simply amazing. I still have a part of me that can't help but to say we are going to see some kind of correction and temper these amounts down a bit, but nothing really seems to be happening like that. We just have such a dynamically strong storm and an impressive baroclinic zone feeding this. One thing I've noticed is some of the models have gradually been moving those 700 and 850mb lows a hair further to the left. That might concern me just a bit if I was in the Eastern half of the heavy snow band. Also what Beau said earlier is very important- the 12Z data may not have captured everything in its entirety but the 00Z ingested for tonights runs should have nearly everything. Part of me just wants to temper expectations a bit and tell folks that are expecting nearly two feet of snow not to be upset if its 6" or so less than that total. I've just seen models to many times be overly aggressive and not capture things properly. That all being said, this is a serious, serious storm and please do not take it lightly make sure your friends and family know whats coming. This is one for the ages and consistency has been remarkably well for some time now. I know a few days ago I said a once in a ten to twenty year storm, this is going to more likely be a once in a 40+ year type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.