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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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What a mess.

Looks like some freezing drizzle as early as tomorrow midday mixed with showers of sleet/freezing rain. Main storm begins to push in Tuesday morning and that is when it gets ugly. Right now--considering this may track a tad NW once more run--WAA will likely be stouter in the mid-levels with heavy fzra/sleet. Maybe some snow early too but I think this will be more of a big ice storm through the daytime hours Tuesday. Tuesday night the mid levels cool as the storm pushes over the area and heights crash. SHould change it back over to snow--and heavy snow at that by Tuesday evening. Main defo band will prolly be NW of the region--but it wouldn't surprise me if you get a good bit of accumulating snow on the back end with significant blowing snow and strong winds into Wednesday.

Thank you sir for your insight, hoping to get 6-10 inches of snow after the turnover.

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That may be a bit amped--but the NAM is getting close. The NAM had a bad height field this run--but the 0Z run may very well track a tick NW and deeper which would be close to the UK. The trend is clear--since coming onshore--that southern stream wave is stronger than earlier projected by the guidance--and tiny amplitude changes in the eventual wave over such an unstable baroclinic zone can result in large intensity/track changes. It is a classic example of non-linear positive feedback forcing.

Do you think the NWS GRB discussion where the meteorologist thought it might trend a bit more northwest was well-stated? Do you agree with his thoughts? I ask because I'm still worried about a SE trend which I can't afford due to the abrupt gradient between snows of over a foot and snows of 3-6 inches.

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Do you think the NWS GRB discussion where the meteorologist thought it might trend a bit more northwest was well-stated? Do you agree with his thoughts? I ask because I'm still worried about a SE trend which I can't afford due to the abrupt gradient between snows of over a foot and snows of 3-6 inches.

I will have to read it to see his thoughts-I can't say exactly without knowing. That said--if this gets too amped and rapidly occludes--it will track NW early then the low will be shunted more eastward--that is another possibility for those on the northern edge of this storm.

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I will have to read it to see his thoughts-I can't say exactly without knowing. That said--if this gets too amped and rapidly occludes--it will track NW early then the low will be shunted more eastward--that is another possibility for those on the northern edge of this storm.

Whatever works, though a 12Z repeat would be fine, preferably slightly S.

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This is a cross section of the 12z GFS valid at 00z Wednesday (Tuesday evening). It runs from roughly near Springfield, IL to near Waterloo, IA (through the Quad Cities).

Yellow is omega again (more than adequate all the way through Cedar Rapids).

Cyan is fgen (strong near PIA through MLI).

Salmon is temperature (omega collocated through the DGZ).

And the image is EPV again. Blue values are below zero (unstable), and there is a large area from central Illinois through the Quad Cities. This is suggestive of banded, convective snow fall and enhanced rates underneath these features.

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This is a cross section of the 12z GFS valid at 00z Wednesday (Tuesday evening). It runs from roughly near Springfield, IL to near Waterloo, IA (through the Quad Cities).

Yellow is omega again (more than adequate all the way through Cedar Rapids).

Cyan is fgen (strong near PIA through MLI).

Salmon is temperature (omega collocated through the DGZ).

And the image is EPV again. Blue values are below zero (unstable), and there is a large area from central Illinois through the Quad Cities. This is suggestive of banded, convective snow fall and enhanced rates underneath these features.

That's really interesting, I was actually able to read that with your explanation. Thanks for posting.

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As someone that has seen a lot of maps in this profession of fantasy storms, or models that print something out ominously and then only correct back to reality, this storm is simply amazing. I still have a part of me that can't help but to say we are going to see some kind of correction and temper these amounts down a bit, but nothing really seems to be happening like that. We just have such a dynamically strong storm and an impressive baroclinic zone feeding this. One thing I've noticed is some of the models have gradually been moving those 700 and 850mb lows a hair further to the left. That might concern me just a bit if I was in the Eastern half of the heavy snow band. Also what Beau said earlier is very important- the 12Z data may not have captured everything in its entirety but the 00Z ingested for tonights runs should have nearly everything. Part of me just wants to temper expectations a bit and tell folks that are expecting nearly two feet of snow not to be upset if its 6" or so less than that total. I've just seen models to many times be overly aggressive and not capture things properly. That all being said, this is a serious, serious storm and please do not take it lightly make sure your friends and family know whats coming. This is one for the ages and consistency has been remarkably well for some time now. I know a few days ago I said a once in a ten to twenty year storm, this is going to more likely be a once in a 40+ year type storm.

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