Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Found this on DT's blog....funny...felt right to paste it here hope he is talkign about the MA because new england stands to see 2 feet in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Something like the 18z UKIE would turn this into a turd here I suspect. i wanted to look at the heights for the 18z ukie....do you have a link or was it posted? it didnt look good at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 trying not to get excited about that map chi storm.....i can't remember a storm where outside of the main band 17" was a total and then farther out from that 11" still think 10" in madison should be about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i wanted to look at the heights for the 18z ukie....do you have a link or was it posted? it didnt look good at the surface. No, sorry, I don't. The link I have only allows you to see the sfc plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Latest from Ch. 13 (Indy) OCM Jude Redfield: **My Latest Update**First for Indy Metro...Ice begins late tomorrow,possibly before the evening commute. Ice on and off tomorrow night into Tues AM. Up to a half inch ice accumulation by noon Tues. The next big wave takes shape to hit Tues night. Ice changing to rain with temps climbing above 32 before falling by Wed AM. Everything will end as light snow, not a heavy snow accumulation expected. As long as we climb above freezing for a prolonged period Indy metro SHOULD dodge the worst part of the storm(WATCH THIS CAREFULLY!!!) **Next**From Lafayette-Crawfordsville-Tipton-Muncie-Marion & points to the north** Precip possibly begins late Monday as snow then changes to sleet, freezing rain overnight. Ice will fall on and off Tuesday and get very heavy overnight Tuesday. Worst case scenario you see mainly freezing rain, best case scenario it is mainly sleet.(sleet can be plowed and moved, freezing rain will bring down trees and power lines) Possibility exists for upwards of 1.5" of ice in the zone between Indy and these locations. This Lafayette to Muncie line might only peak near 32 and not get above. Everything ends as snow Overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning...some significant snow is possible as well. **South of I-70**Ice begins late Monday and continues into early afternoon tuesday. the 32 degree line should move close to Indy from the south from Tuesday afternoon-late Tuesday night. Many locations south of I-70 should jump well above 32. In fact Bedford to Louisville to Greensburg could surge into the upper 40s. This is a close call on a storm that will go down in the record books for parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Plan on more shifts with the exact track, but it is almost certain parts of the state will be BLASTED by this storm. Right now the locations that stay below 32 for the entire event could take days to recover from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I will hesitantly post this as I know that (a) I did not go too in-depth and ( my eye contact is lacking as this was the first time I tried writing a script for my video forecasts instead of going mainly from memory. Anyways this was made for my blog which covers my hometown of Lake Orion, MI. Feel free to critique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On the 12Z NAM the ONLY site in SE Mich that had mixing was DET/DTW for 1 hour and even then thermal profile was marginal for a mix. Given the high precip rates I would say Monroe County is most at risk but will check 18Z data in a few on Bufkit. AT least Sean Ashwith me on DTX going low which I can understand them doing at this range. DET didn't mix on the 12z NAM according to kab2791, but DTW did. In any event, I'm just curious but do you guys see Metro Airport shutting down at any point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No, sorry, I don't. The link I have only allows you to see the sfc plot. its cool hopefully we see things a bit better at 00z the RGEM looked better than the NCEP models to me at least we'll see what happens my benchamark is really really low, ive posted in the upstate forum that i expect 1-2 inches despite what the models show.... and we will go from there not ready to make any firm commitments until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DET didn't mix on the 12z NAM according to kab2791, but DTW did. In any event, I'm just curious but do you guys see Metro Airport shutting down at any point? DET did not mix on the 12Z NAM....The reason I threw them in is DET is only 11.2 miles ENE of me (070 deg) so usually we get about the same. As for metro shutting down it is possible as Bufkit shows a 4 hour period of over 2 inch/hr. I may have to use my "never used" 1/16SM in my obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I will hesitantly post this as I know that (a) I did not go too in-depth and ( my eye contact is lacking as this was the first time I tried writing a script for my video forecasts instead of going mainly from memory. Anyways this was made for my blog which covers my hometown of Lake Orion, MI. Feel free to critique. Suit was a nice touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run) Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs. Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run) Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs. Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion. This is going to take a while to digest, but thanks for sharing. Going to have to try and crash around 7 or so tomorrow night to prepare for a possible all nighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run) Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs. Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion. I MISS MY AWIPS....glad I get to use it again....THANKS for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run) Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs. Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion. would love to see you throw up those for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run) Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs. Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion. From a standpoint of Isentropic Potential Vorticity thinking--that low level theta-e regime being as warm as it is shows the extreme rapid cyclogenesis potential and non-linearity owing to the very low static stability/static instability. This storm is going to be a NOWcast event once it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let me get back to you on that--just got done with dinner. cool, I will look forward to your response, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 would love to see you throw up those for ORD Instability just a bit less as you head further northwest from the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Meh, I just want to get the NAM and GFS back to around an inch. That at least removes the chances for the lower end amounts. My success threshold for this one is 10". i still think models are under doing the qpf total for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 From a standpoint of Isentropic Potential Vorticity thinking--that low level theta-e regime being as warm as it is shows the extreme rapid cyclogenesis potential and non-linearity owing to the very low static stability/static instability. This storm is going to be a NOWcast event once it gets going. Totally agree on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 From a standpoint of Isentropic Potential Vorticity thinking--that low level theta-e regime being as warm as it is shows the extreme rapid cyclogenesis potential and non-linearity owing to the very low static stability/static instability. This storm is going to be a NOWcast event once it gets going. Do you think that makes something like the 18z UKMET more likely with its 990 mb low near St Louis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If you overlay frontogenesis over those images as well you can see the best forcing is really centering around 06z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just read the AFD from the weather office in my area CONSIDERED A BLIZZARD WARNINGAND IN COORDINATION WITH TOP/EAX...THOUGHT IF CURRENT FORECAST OF SNOW/WINDS/BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES...WOULD NEED TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING AND WOULD HAVE SOME TIME TO DO THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 lolz at the 18z DGEX it gives me another snowstorm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Instability just a bit less as you head further northwest from the low center. thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I won't get a ice storm I won't get a ice storm I won't get a ice storm I won't get a ice storm I won't get a ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 cool, I will look forward to your response, thanks. What a mess. Looks like some freezing drizzle as early as tomorrow midday mixed with showers of sleet/freezing rain. Main storm begins to push in Tuesday morning and that is when it gets ugly. Right now--considering this may track a tad NW once more run--WAA will likely be stouter in the mid-levels with heavy fzra/sleet. Maybe some snow early too but I think this will be more of a big ice storm through the daytime hours Tuesday. Tuesday night the mid levels cool as the storm pushes over the area and heights crash. SHould change it back over to snow--and heavy snow at that by Tuesday evening. Main defo band will prolly be NW of the region--but it wouldn't surprise me if you get a good bit of accumulating snow on the back end with significant blowing snow and strong winds into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you think that makes something like the 18z UKMET more likely with its 990 mb low near St Louis? That may be a bit amped--but the NAM is getting close. The NAM had a bad height field this run--but the 0Z run may very well track a tick NW and deeper which would be close to the UK. The trend is clear--since coming onshore--that southern stream wave is stronger than earlier projected by the guidance--and tiny amplitude changes in the eventual wave over such an unstable baroclinic zone can result in large intensity/track changes. It is a classic example of non-linear positive feedback forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 something tells be the Civic won't be driven again until March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If you overlay frontogenesis over those images as well you can see the best forcing is really centering around 06z Wednesday. Ya I'm expecting the heaviest snow here to be between 2z and 15z, give or take a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The drifting alone from this storm will be epic as well. Guessing 5-15ft and maybe 20ft in outlying areas probably not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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