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January 31-February 2 Historic Winter Storm part 6


Hoosier

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Latest from Ch. 13 (Indy) OCM Jude Redfield: **My Latest Update**First for Indy Metro...Ice begins late tomorrow,possibly before the evening commute. Ice on and off tomorrow night into Tues AM. Up to a half inch ice accumulation by noon Tues. The next big wave takes shape to hit Tues night. Ice changing to rain with temps climbing above 32 before falling by Wed AM. Everything will end as light snow, not a heavy snow accumulation expected. As long as we climb above freezing for a prolonged period Indy metro SHOULD dodge the worst part of the storm(WATCH THIS CAREFULLY!!!) **Next**From Lafayette-Crawfordsville-Tipton-Muncie-Marion & points to the north** Precip possibly begins late Monday as snow then changes to sleet, freezing rain overnight. Ice will fall on and off Tuesday and get very heavy overnight Tuesday. Worst case scenario you see mainly freezing rain, best case scenario it is mainly sleet.(sleet can be plowed and moved, freezing rain will bring down trees and power lines) Possibility exists for upwards of 1.5" of ice in the zone between Indy and these locations. This Lafayette to Muncie line might only peak near 32 and not get above. Everything ends as snow Overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning...some significant snow is possible as well. **South of I-70**Ice begins late Monday and continues into early afternoon tuesday. the 32 degree line should move close to Indy from the south from Tuesday afternoon-late Tuesday night. Many locations south of I-70 should jump well above 32. In fact Bedford to Louisville to Greensburg could surge into the upper 40s. This is a close call on a storm that will go down in the record books for parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Plan on more shifts with the exact track, but it is almost certain parts of the state will be BLASTED by this storm. Right now the locations that stay below 32 for the entire event could take days to recover from this.

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I will hesitantly post this as I know that (a) I did not go too in-depth and (B) my eye contact is lacking as this was the first time I tried writing a script for my video forecasts instead of going mainly from memory. Anyways this was made for my blog which covers my hometown of Lake Orion, MI. Feel free to critique.

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On the 12Z NAM the ONLY site in SE Mich that had mixing was DET/DTW for 1 hour and even then thermal profile was marginal for a mix. Given the high precip rates I would say Monroe County is most at risk but will check 18Z data in a few on Bufkit. AT least Sean Ashwith me on DTX going low which I can understand them doing at this range.

DET didn't mix on the 12z NAM according to kab2791, but DTW did.

In any event, I'm just curious but do you guys see Metro Airport shutting down at any point?

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No, sorry, I don't. The link I have only allows you to see the sfc plot.

its cool hopefully we see things a bit better at 00z

the RGEM looked better than the NCEP models to me at least

we'll see what happens

my benchamark is really really low, ive posted in the upstate forum that i expect 1-2 inches despite what the models show.... and we will go from there not ready to make any firm commitments until 12z tomorrow.

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DET didn't mix on the 12z NAM according to kab2791, but DTW did.

In any event, I'm just curious but do you guys see Metro Airport shutting down at any point?

DET did not mix on the 12Z NAM....The reason I threw them in is DET is only 11.2 miles ENE of me (070 deg) so usually we get about the same. As for metro shutting down it is possible as Bufkit shows a 4 hour period of over 2 inch/hr. I may have to use my "never used" 1/16SM in my obs.

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I will hesitantly post this as I know that (a) I did not go too in-depth and (B) my eye contact is lacking as this was the first time I tried writing a script for my video forecasts instead of going mainly from memory. Anyways this was made for my blog which covers my hometown of Lake Orion, MI. Feel free to critique.

Suit was a nice touch. :)

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I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run)

Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs.

Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion.

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I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run)

Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs.

Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion.

This is going to take a while to digest, but thanks for sharing. Going to have to try and crash around 7 or so tomorrow night to prepare for a possible all nighter.

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I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run)

Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs.

Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion.

I MISS MY AWIPS....glad I get to use it again....THANKS for posting that.

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I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run)

Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs.

Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion.

would love to see you throw up those for ORD :thumbsup:

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I'm in a giving mood so here are a couple images for PIA highlighting the potential. (from the 12z GFS run)

Temperatures and omega as a time series (starting at the right side of the image). You can see the strongest omega right through the DGZ. Not only that but a nearly 24 hour period where this occurs.

Here is equivalent potential temperatures with an image of EPV. Values of EPV near and below zero indicate instability and convective potential in the atmosphere. Another proxy is separation of lines of theta. The farther apart they are the weaker the stability, the closer together the more stable. Also the more vertical these lines become the more unstable. Here you can see a period from 18z Tuesday through 06z Wednesday where there is both convective potential and strong vertical motion.

From a standpoint of Isentropic Potential Vorticity thinking--that low level theta-e regime being as warm as it is shows the extreme rapid cyclogenesis potential and non-linearity owing to the very low static stability/static instability. This storm is going to be a NOWcast event once it gets going.

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From a standpoint of Isentropic Potential Vorticity thinking--that low level theta-e regime being as warm as it is shows the extreme rapid cyclogenesis potential and non-linearity owing to the very low static stability/static instability. This storm is going to be a NOWcast event once it gets going.

Totally agree on that front.

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From a standpoint of Isentropic Potential Vorticity thinking--that low level theta-e regime being as warm as it is shows the extreme rapid cyclogenesis potential and non-linearity owing to the very low static stability/static instability. This storm is going to be a NOWcast event once it gets going.

Do you think that makes something like the 18z UKMET more likely with its 990 mb low near St Louis?

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cool, I will look forward to your response, thanks.

What a mess.

Looks like some freezing drizzle as early as tomorrow midday mixed with showers of sleet/freezing rain. Main storm begins to push in Tuesday morning and that is when it gets ugly. Right now--considering this may track a tad NW once more run--WAA will likely be stouter in the mid-levels with heavy fzra/sleet. Maybe some snow early too but I think this will be more of a big ice storm through the daytime hours Tuesday. Tuesday night the mid levels cool as the storm pushes over the area and heights crash. SHould change it back over to snow--and heavy snow at that by Tuesday evening. Main defo band will prolly be NW of the region--but it wouldn't surprise me if you get a good bit of accumulating snow on the back end with significant blowing snow and strong winds into Wednesday.

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Do you think that makes something like the 18z UKMET more likely with its 990 mb low near St Louis?

That may be a bit amped--but the NAM is getting close. The NAM had a bad height field this run--but the 0Z run may very well track a tick NW and deeper which would be close to the UK. The trend is clear--since coming onshore--that southern stream wave is stronger than earlier projected by the guidance--and tiny amplitude changes in the eventual wave over such an unstable baroclinic zone can result in large intensity/track changes. It is a classic example of non-linear positive feedback forcing.

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