Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's some pretty impressive anomalies there OceanStWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I can't wait to hear what Tom Skilling has to say about this one. He has been playing up this storm quietly over a week, and has been really on the ball about it. That being said, I have a TON of work to do and can't bring myself to do any of it because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I would JUST miss out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptown Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 chad, with wlfi, has indy with: 4-6" snow 2-4" sleet .25-.5" ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the one thing im concerned about for southern ontario is the possibility of a rapid occlusion that models are leaning towards now.....that could result in lower qpf amounts as the energy translates eastwards quicker......that could leave the region between say london ontario and the western hudson valley in a relative precip min. i think thats what we have been seeing on the euro cutting back qpf, and even the GEM at 12z suggest it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Updated HPC model diagnostic discussion (including the 12z Euro). MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 138 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 VALID JAN 30/1200 UTC THRU FEB 03/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA... PREFERENCE: GFS OR ECMWF MODELS AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THE NAM LIES NEAR THE STRONG EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PROCESS...WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF INITIALIZING THE TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 50-75 NM EAST OF ACTUAL POSITION. OTHERWISE...THE GFS INITIALIZES THE TROUGH BETTER THAN THE NAM AND AGREES WITH NON-NCEP GUIDANCE. THUS...RECOMMEND EXCLUDING THE STRONGER NAM. ...UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: AFTER 00Z TUE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE NAM/ECMWF THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND NORTH OF ITS PRIOR RUN BY 60-84 HRS AND MERGES NICELY WITH THE NAM/UKMET...WHICH PLACES THE GFS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST HALF TO ONE THIRD OF ALL GUIDANCE BY 84 HRS. THUS...GIVEN ITS POSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLUSTERING OF OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...RECOMMEND LESS OF THE GFS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CA TO THE S. PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD... ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TX TO THE OH VALLEY TUE-WED... PREFERENCE: BEFORE 00Z WED...EQUAL BLEND GFS/ECMWF AFTER 00Z WED...2/3 GFS TO 1/3 NAM THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. ADDITIONALLY... ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COMPARISONS WITH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NAM INITIALIZES THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH ABOUT 50 NM WEST OF ITS ACTUAL POSITION WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO ITS SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BEFORE EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER ENTERING THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE OH VALLEY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE GFS SOLUTION. THUS...EARLIER PREFERENCES REMAIN INTACT...WITH AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED DAYS 1/2...BEFORE ABANDONING THE ECMWF IN FAVOR A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR DAY 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 chad, with wlfi, has indy with: 4-6" snow 2-4" sleet .25-.5" ice Wish his blog mentioned how he came up with those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the one thing im concerned about for southern ontario is the possibility of a rapid occlusion that models are leaning towards now.....that could result in lower qpf amounts as the energy translates eastwards quicker......that could leave the region between say london ontario and the western hudson valley in a relative precip min. i think thats what we have been seeing on the euro cutting back qpf, and even the GEM at 12z suggest it. Yeah--with the stronger wave aloft and the overall stronger surface low--that is a reality for some locations now. More intense but with a rapid occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wish his blog mentioned how he came up with those numbers. I believe he's mentioned using mathematical equations to his forecasting before. Whatever that means. Regardless, his snowfall totals for here are way too much. But he does say that further adjustments may be necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IND's new zones are out and they mention absolutely no plain rain anywhere North of 70. Good call IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 IND's new zones are out and they mention absolutely no plain rain anywhere North of 70. Good call IMO. I like LAF for Tuesday night. Not sure I buy the heavy snow part at this point TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDY. FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET THEN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Reading PAH's winter storm watch I get the impression that they are concerned for ice with the WAA first part of this system since the concern is for Monday night into Tuesday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I like LAF for Tuesday night. Not sure I buy the heavy snow part at this point TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDY. FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET THEN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. I'm jealous. I get an 1-2" Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is it just me or is the nam way south with the h5 vort at 30 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is it just me or is the nam way south with the h5 vort at 30 hr? It's just you. Fairly close to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is it just me or is the nam way south with the h5 vort at 30 hr? Depends on your definition of "way". Heights to the east are nearly identical. Probably won't be north of 12z but probably won't be a ton south either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Depends on your definition of "way". Heights to the east are nearly identical. Probably won't be north of 12z but probably won't be a ton south either. I wasn't comparing it to the 12z..just noting the further south start..will let COLDER surface air move south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 early returns on the 18z NAM height pattern suggests it should not be as far NW ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM looks similar to me. A tad farther SW then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 sorry edited post above to include the word NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ETA members still too far south and the RSM with its convective plotting errors, otherwise fairly sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 geezus sorry guys, looks like the trough is just a bit slower, so it could be that as the difference between heights sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Changes from here on out are likely to be small and of much smaller impact than before. We are <24 hours from the WAA event and <48 from the arrival of the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM HAS HORRIBLE ICE EVENT COMING and MAJOR SNOWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM HAS HORRIBLE ICE EVENT COMING and MAJOR SNOWS k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This storm is just going to be something epic. Honestly in my 3.5 years of being an actual met I have never seen a storm of this intensity, magnitude, and impact across this part of the country. Granted--not a long time--but still. This storm will have major impacts. Kudos to the NWS for getting early warning out. Nobody should be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 geezus sorry guys, looks like the trough is just a bit slower, so it could be that as the difference between heights sorry Yea, it's about 3 or so hours slower through 48hrs. Track is similar to the 12z thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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