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February General Banter Thread I


jrips27

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it really surprises me (well i guess it shouldnt anymore) how the rain can just disappear when it heads your way. its been pouring here and 1.25" so far (over 2" the last couple of days). its the proverbial brick wall :huh:

i am trying to send it up your way :drunk:

yeah thats something isn't it. After your's and Oconee's backyard, its usually all down hill from there, LOL. It just picked up. The models did have your area pegged right around ne Ga , w. SC and sw NC region in this event, and much lighter quicker once youre east. I do think I'll do a lot better with the late week event, as there shouldn't be much in convection in se Alabama. Either way, guess I'll take what I can get. Congrats on your 1.25" so far.

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Yasi is Katrina's brother: http://www.smh.com.a...0202-1ad70.html

My brother-in-law is Australian and his family is from Innisfail, Queensland. Yasi is expected to make landfall near where his family lives. They're being evacuated as we type. Cyclone Tasha clobbered them at Christmas and caused tremendous flooding. Tasha could be mild compared to Yasi.

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Couple of really nasty cloud to ground lightning strikes here the last few minutes at 45 degrees. Shows you how powerful this storm system is.

Yep, we've gotten a few powerful/nearby strikes here as well. Impressive especially considering the wedging going on. Birmingham is at 58 right now!

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Question: What is the measure of a good SN-storm?

In general, especially when the snow is wet, 2" is at about the point where a real beautiful widespread cake frosting-like covering can occur.

1) KATL based on climo back to the late 1800's:

a) Snow: I'd call 2" good. KATL gets a 4"+ snow about once every five years on average. So, I'd have to consider 4" of snow very good/major. A 6"+ snow occurs about once every ten years and there hasn't been one since 1983. So, based on this, a 6" snow is fantastic. A 8"+ snow occurs about once every 25 years and, therefore, is epic. So, I think weatherkid categorized them very well.

B)B) IP (for Tony): I'd go with 2" as very good to excellent...keep in mind that that is equivalent to ~6" of snow. So, it would be a big deal. I'd call a 4" IP as epic. That's equivalent to ~12" of snow and takes forever to melt. The 2/1979 and 1/1988 IP storms were 4.2" at KATL and will never be forgotten for their very high impact/slow melting

2) KSAV based on climo back to the 1700's

1"+ of S/IP about once every 13 years. I'd call 1" at SAV good.

2"+ of S/IP about once every 20 years. I'd call 2" at SAV excellent.

4"+ of S/IP about once every 50-75 years. Although, there hasn't been one officially since 3/4/1837 (unofficially, 12/1989 produced ~4-5" on some of the islands and it is possible that the city, itself, got ~4" since the airport got 3.6") there were ~4-5 of them from 1740-1837! I'm assuming this is largely due to a colder climate then, which I feel was probably at least partially sun related. I'd have to call 4"+ at SAV epic.

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SE ridge is really cranking @ 300HR on GFS. No greenland block in sight. Not even one of those GFS dream snowstorms to send me off to bed. The chances of a "good snow" for most parts of the deep south could be coming to a close folks. Who wants to call the time of death? :gun_bandana:

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SE ridge is really cranking @ 300HR on GFS. No greenland block in sight. Not even one of those GFS dream snowstorms to send me off to bed. The chances of a "good snow" for most parts of the deep south could be coming to a close folks. Who wants to call the time of death? :gun_bandana:

I wouldn't call it off the 300 hour GFS. I'd say March 15th is the end.

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SE ridge is really cranking @ 300HR on GFS. No greenland block in sight. Not even one of those GFS dream snowstorms to send me off to bed. The chances of a "good snow" for most parts of the deep south could be coming to a close folks. Who wants to call the time of death? :gun_bandana:

Considering that half of all major S/IP at KATL since the late 1800's as well as at KCHS/KSAV since the early 1700's have occurred 2/10+, it is a bit early for saying this kind of thing, even if it appears we're headed for a much warmer pattern overall. Frankly, I'd be quite surprised if we weren't at least teased with at least one more threat. Regardless, even if we're done, this has been a second straight great winter from my perspective.

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In general, especially when the snow is wet, 2" is at about the point where a real beautiful widespread cake frosting-like covering can occur.

1) KATL based on climo back to the late 1800's:

a) Snow: I'd call 2" good. KATL gets a 4"+ snow about once every five years on average. So, I'd have to consider 4" of snow very good/major. A 6"+ snow occurs about once every ten years and there hasn't been one since 1983. So, based on this, a 6" snow is fantastic. A 8"+ snow occurs about once every 25 years and, therefore, is epic. So, I think weatherkid categorized them very well.

B)B) IP (for Tony): I'd go with 2" as very good to excellent...keep in mind that that is equivalent to ~6" of snow. So, it would be a big deal. I'd call a 4" IP as epic. That's equivalent to ~12" of snow and takes forever to melt. The 2/1979 and 1/1988 IP storms were 4.2" at KATL and will never be forgotten for their very high impact/slow melting

2) KSAV based on climo back to the 1700's

1"+ of S/IP about once every 13 years. I'd call 1" at SAV good.

2"+ of S/IP about once every 20 years. I'd call 2" at SAV excellent.

4"+ of S/IP about once every 50-75 years. Although, there hasn't been one officially since 3/4/1837, there were ~4-5 of them from 1740-1837! I'm assuming this is largely due to a colder climate then, which I feel was probably at least partially sun related. I'd have to call 4"+ at SAV epic.

Those two and one in 58 or 59, I think, were the best I've seen up there. Had some good ones down here. I love Feb. and think the best is yet come for me :) Here is my sledding hill. It is a county road so you can see I need a real good thumping to get to use it. At least a two or three inch mix. And way cold after. Last time was maybe 8 to 10 years back. I'm counting on this Feb. to give me my due :) I'm getting too old to wait patiently any more. T

http://dsaur.home.co...-thebigside.jpg

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Those two and one in 58 or 59, I think, were the best I've seen up there. Had some good ones down here. I love Feb. and think the best is yet come for me :) Here is my sledding hill. It is a county road so you can see I need a real good thumping to get to use it. At least a two or three inch mix. And way cold after. Last time was maybe 8 to 10 years back. I'm counting on this Feb. to give me my due :) I'm getting too old to wait patiently any more. T

http://dsaur.home.co...-thebigside.jpg

Tony,

Wow, what a hill!

Per the airport records, KATL got 2.7" of S/IP on 2/15/1958 from 0.63" of liquid equivalent. This was the heaviest S/IP of the late 1950's. Could this have been the nice 1958-9 IP to which you're referring?

Also, there was 0.93" liquid producing 1" of S/IP on 12/13/1958. Could this have been the one?

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Tony,

Wow, what a hill!

Per the airport records, KATL got 2.7" of S/IP on 2/15/1958 from 0.63" of liquid equivalent. This was the heaviest S/IP of the late 1950's. Could this have been the nice 1958-9 IP to which you're referring?

Also, there was 0.93" liquid producing 1' of S/IP. Could this have been the one?

Sounds about right. But I don't remember any snow. It had a profound effect on my impressionable little mind, though. My love of sleet and weather was born that day. And an understanding of the effect of sleet on hills. I was on school patrol, and had to leave early. When I went out to wait by the car the clouds were lowering right down to the roof tops and with a huge roar, down came a ton of sleet. By the time we got to school it was about over, as I recall. The crossing I was helping the kids cross was at the bottom of a huge hill, and cars would come over the top, and start sliding, and banging into each other, and sliding all the way down, and piling up. I was running kids across the street and then hiding down behind a wall as the bumper cars came flying down toward us. It was staggeringly amazing, the whole experience, and I've been sleet crazy ever since, lol. Kind of like that 70's one you got to see. A good sleet thump is unforgetable to a warped and twisted guy like me :) T

Edit: My guess would be the first one considering the effect. One inch doesn't seem to fit, what I'm remembering. And not saying it wasn't the winter before. I started high school Sept 60, so it would have been Jan, Feb. of 60, or 59, or 58. And the big one sounds right to me. But I guess everything seems big to a 10/11 year old.

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Folks,

Don't look now but the crazy, nutty 0Z Euro has accumulating to major snow on 2/10 for HOU., N.O. and the entire Gulf coast to the Big Bend of F with it inland up to 200 miles (yes, KATL gets up to 2" from 0.10" qpf due to very high ratios) and then extending along the SE coast all of the way from KJAX to the NC coast. As modeled, this would be the biggest Gulf/SE coastal storm for many areas in many years and the most widespread coastal snow in decades. Many coastal areas would get 0.25"+ of qpf in the form of snow! It is produced by a far supressed Miller A that crosses all of the way down to S FL, a very rare occurrence.

This is******fwiw***** and it is highly recommended that it be taken with a grain of salt. However, because it is during the infamous 2nd week in Feb., it shouldn't be 100% ignored just yet...lol.

Also, this is a much colder overall Euro run vs. the 12Z. Now, who was it that was ready to proclaim an end to winter? ;)

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Folks,

Don't look now but the crazy, nutty 0Z Euro has accumulating to major snow on 2/10 for HOU., N.O. and the entire Gulf coast to the Big Bend of F with it inland up to 200 miles (yes, KATL gets up to 2" from 0.10" qpf due to very high ratios) and then extending along the SE coast all of the way from KJAX to the NC coast. As modeled, this would be the biggest Gulf/SE coastal storm for many areas in many years and the most widespread coastal snow in decades. Many coastal areas would get 0.25"+ of qpf in the form of snow! It is produced by a far supressed Miller A that crosses all of the way down to S FL, a very rare occurrence.

This is******fwiw***** and it is highly recommended that it be taken with a grain of salt. However, because it is during the infamous 2nd week in Feb., it shouldn't be 100% ignored just yet...lol.

Also, this is a much colder overall Euro run vs. the 12Z. Now, who was it that was ready to proclaim an end to winter? ;)

Hate to break the bad news, but the Op Euro is a huge outlier vs the ensembles- it is much much deeper with that trough than the Op. Therefore take this run with a boulder of salt.

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All you need to know about this winter: At 5 am, it's 40 degrees colder in Houston, TX (24F) than it is at RDU (64F).

I've got a couple friends down there (in the Pasadena/Clear Lake area), I need to email them and see how they're coping with single-digit wind chills. Although snow down there isn't unheard of, they got a couple inches a few years back when they lived closer to Galveston. It was 60 the next day and all melted quickly of course, but they had some cool shots of snow-covered palm trees.

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In general, especially when the snow is wet, 2" is at about the point where a real beautiful widespread cake frosting-like covering can occur.

1) KATL based on climo back to the late 1800's:

a) Snow: I'd call 2" good. KATL gets a 4"+ snow about once every five years on average. So, I'd have to consider 4" of snow very good/major. A 6"+ snow occurs about once every ten years and there hasn't been one since 1983. So, based on this, a 6" snow is fantastic. A 8"+ snow occurs about once every 25 years and, therefore, is epic. So, I think weatherkid categorized them very well.

B)B) IP (for Tony): I'd go with 2" as very good to excellent...keep in mind that that is equivalent to ~6" of snow. So, it would be a big deal. I'd call a 4" IP as epic. That's equivalent to ~12" of snow and takes forever to melt. The 2/1979 and 1/1988 IP storms were 4.2" at KATL and will never be forgotten for their very high impact/slow melting

2) KSAV based on climo back to the 1700's

1"+ of S/IP about once every 13 years. I'd call 1" at SAV good.

2"+ of S/IP about once every 20 years. I'd call 2" at SAV excellent.

4"+ of S/IP about once every 50-75 years. Although, there hasn't been one officially since 3/4/1837 (unofficially, 12/1989 produced ~4-5" on some of the islands and it is possible that the city, itself, got ~4" since the airport got 3.6") there were ~4-5 of them from 1740-1837! I'm assuming this is largely due to a colder climate then, which I feel was probably at least partially sun related. I'd have to call 4"+ at SAV epic.

Good stuff!

I'd have to consider the big one we just had to be epic for us here in Gwinnett. 7.5" here at the house and another .33 of sleet and glaze. Closed schools for 5 days and the last time I think that happened was possibly '83 (hard to remember exactly how many days we were out then).

A little weather fact for today , Feb 2 - The lowest temperature recorded on the North American continent occurred on this date in 1947 at Snag, Yukon Territory with a reading 81 degrees below zero.

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Folks,

Don't look now but the crazy, nutty 0Z Euro has accumulating to major snow on 2/10 for HOU., N.O. and the entire Gulf coast to the Big Bend of F with it inland up to 200 miles (yes, KATL gets up to 2" from 0.10" qpf due to very high ratios) and then extending along the SE coast all of the way from KJAX to the NC coast. As modeled, this would be the biggest Gulf/SE coastal storm for many areas in many years and the most widespread coastal snow in decades. Many coastal areas would get 0.25"+ of qpf in the form of snow! It is produced by a far supressed Miller A that crosses all of the way down to S FL, a very rare occurrence.

This is******fwiw***** and it is highly recommended that it be taken with a grain of salt. However, because it is during the infamous 2nd week in Feb., it shouldn't be 100% ignored just yet...lol.

Also, this is a much colder overall Euro run vs. the 12Z. Now, who was it that was ready to proclaim an end to winter? ;)

It was nice to see the 0z Euro have the colder look.... as you have mentioned several times lately the 0z runs have been much warmer than the 12z runs for a while now. Maybe this time the Euro is finally catching on to a real cold shot instead of just a fanstasy dream.

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All you need to know about this winter: At 5 am, it's 40 degrees colder in Houston, TX (24F) than it is at RDU (64F).

I've got a couple friends down there (in the Pasadena/Clear Lake area), I need to email them and see how they're coping with single-digit wind chills. Although snow down there isn't unheard of, they got a couple inches a few years back when they lived closer to Galveston. It was 60 the next day and all melted quickly of course, but they had some cool shots of snow-covered palm trees.

Looks like they'll be getting some more snow on Friday...reading the HGX disco they're talking 1-3" with the heaviest actually right over the Houston area instead of in their northernmost tier. Very cool, those of you familiar with Ed Mahmoud (the Tx Wx Lizard) know how seriously they take their "sniw miracles" haha.

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