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February General Banter Thread I

jrips27

By jrips27,
in Southeastern States

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

OK, RAH, I want to see you make this happen :D

from my point and click...

for next week...

"Thursday Night: A chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%."

:whistle:

That's why I never look at that...but I'm surprised how many people post 5+ day forecasts from their NWS site, comical intent or not.

Here's a good example of what these offer: "Perception is in the icon of the beholder" http://www.wral.com/...ogpost/9045652/

In my own personal experience, the Norman area forecast for one Saturday in the fall several years ago involved a quasistationary front. This meteorological situation produced an approximately equal probability for two very different scenarios. It would likely either be fair and sunny with temperatures around 70°F or be cloudy and rainy with temperatures below 40°F. It happened that there was an OU football game scheduled that day and there would be 80,000 people at the game. The forecast format did not allow for a probabilistic statement about the situation and the forecaster on duty had to make a dichotomous choice for that afternoon. Unfortunately, that forecast decision turned out to be the incorrect one – the forecast was for warm and sunny, whereas the observed weather was cold and rainy. Many attending the game were unprepared for the actual weather.

However, being a meteorologist, I wore shorts and a t-shirt to the game, but was aware of the uncertainty and carried a backpack with cold, rainy weather gear to put on in the event the front wiggled south of us, which it did. Had the forecast allowed the forecaster to express the uncertainty properly, many of the unhappy game fans would been informed enough to have made the decision to come prepared for
either
outcome. Since the forecast format didn't permit that option, valuable information effectively was blocked from the users.

I do
not
see the outcome as being the result of a poor forecast – any forecaster would have struggled with the decision and it's likely that if we had 100 forecasters make the decision independently, the result probably would produce a bimodal distribution of their forecasts. In fact, the variability among forecasters contained in the ensemble of their forecasts would likely be a reasonably accurate reflection of that uncertainty. But the format of the forecast as issued at the time did not allow the forecaster to make that uncertainty known.

What users might
want
from forecasts is 100% confidence in the forecasts. But the reality is that forecasters cannot
provide
that level of confidence, in general. And most intelligent users
know
that. On a summer day with temperatures well over 100°F, the probability of subfreezing temperatures in, say, the next 12 hours is certainly small, and indistinguishable from zero on the vast majority of such days. Near-absolute uncertaintyof that order is possible in
some
situations, but certainly not as a general rule. Therefore, except in very unusual circumstances, it would not be necessary to produce a forecast probability for subfreezing temperatures in the middle of an extended heat wave. Rather, a useful product would be a probability density function, which also could have multiple modes.

http://www.flame.org..._Certainty.html

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

FFC's thoughts on the late week system-actually based in logic or another example of their love for the GFS?

A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN

FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...WITH GFS SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY

PRECIP (MAINLY SNOW) WEDNESDAY NIGHT- EARLY THURSDAY... WHILE

ECMWF SHOWS MAINLY RAIN...POSSIBLY A MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD

OF THE STATE. CONSIDERING THE TRACK RECORD OF THIS WINTER SO

FAR... HAVE LEANED TOWARD A WINTRY THREAT... AND MENTIONED RAIN OR

SNOW FOR NOW.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

That's why I never look at that...but I'm surprised how many people post 5+ day forecasts from their NWS site, comical intent or not.

Here's a good example of what these offer: "Perception is in the icon of the beholder" http://www.wral.com/...ogpost/9045652/

http://www.flame.org..._Certainty.html

Lighten up, Jon,,, I just posted that because of the obvious improbability of a forecast of 21° and rain verifying. This is a general banter thread, after all, and I was generally bantering . Pardon my banter, which WAS comical intent, and have a great weekend. *sigh*

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Let this one go guys, as posting AFDs and criticizing them will always be present here (although it should be here in banter and not in the storm threads, so for that keep it going :thumbsup: ), as we have the luxury to do so. The one Solak posted with 21F and a 40% chance of RN was pretty good, especially when considering the office. At-least he is fortunate to have a WFO that updated the long term today, this from MHX atm... :thumbsdown:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

911 PM EST FRI FEB 4 2011

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 330 PM THU...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE BRIEF DRY

PERIOD SUN INTO EARLY MON...THEN NEXT CLIPPER SHRT WV WILL BRING CHC

OF RAIN LATE MON THROUGH MON NIGHT. MAIN SFC LOW TRACK WILL BE N OF

AREA...WITH MODELS INDICATING PSBL WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROF

DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF MAIN COLD FRONT...THUS COULD SEE SOME SPLIT

IN PCPN PATTERN AND KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG

COAST.

DRY AND COOL PERIOD FOLLOWS FOR TUE AND WED WITH FLOW BECOMING ZONAL

ALOFT AND HIGH PRES SPREADING IN FROM W-SW AT SFC. MODELS AGREE ON

ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN THU WITH SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF W COAST...BUT

DIVERGE ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF SFC LOW WHICH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR

PSBL P-TYPE ISSUES...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. LEANED TO HPC WHICH

FAVORED ECMWF...WITH SFC LOW TRACKING INLAND SW TO NE...AND THUS AN

ALL RAIN FCST AT THIS TIME. DRY AND MUCH COLDER WITH ARCTIC HIGH

PRES BUILDING IN FRI.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Lighten up, Jon,,, I just posted that because of the obvious improbability of a forecast of 21° and rain verifying. This is a general banter thread, after all, and I was generally bantering . Pardon my banter, which WAS comical intent, and have a great weekend. *sigh*

My apologies...you're right. I had a bad day, didn't mean for it to be a personal attack so I'm sorry you took it that way. Looking back at that post I was definitely an ass. :yikes:

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Wow, FFC increased high temps late next week by 10 degrees. Is this arctic outbreak ever going to happen ? No signs of arctic air through next Friday.

The GFS isn't as cold as it was last night this time, even if those temps were going to verify though, I doubt NOAA would panic everyone until it was actually knocking on the door. They were putting us in the lower 20s which is pretty cold down here in Columbia.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

question: How do you know when its time to have your septic cleaned out? Every time it rains hard or I get a multi day rain (obviously not often) my toilet bubbles and gargles, and now it won't flush at all. I've had over 2" of rain the last few days, this hasn't happened since sometime last years' El Nino Winter. I'm actually surprised given how dry it's been this Fall and Winter, but never had it cleaned out since I've been at this house over 7 years, so I'm sure its due. Usually after a few days of drying out its fine, but know at some point it probably has to be done. Reminds me of Christmas Vacation movie.:arrowhead:

post-38-0-93435900-1296904246.jpg

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

question: How do you know when its time to have your septic cleaned out? Every time it rains hard or I get a multi day rain (obviously not often) my toilet bubbles and gargles, and now it won't flush at all. I've had over 2" of rain the last few days, this hasn't happened since sometime last years' El Nino Winter. I'm actually surprised given how dry it's been this Fall and Winter, but never had it cleaned out since I've been at this house over 7 years, so I'm sure its due. Usually after a few days of drying out its fine, but know at some point it probably has to be done. Reminds me of Christmas Vacation movie.:arrowhead:

post-38-0-93435900-1296904246.jpg

Robert

Some are never cleaned out. The best way to tell if its full is where your tail lines are. At the end of them most of the time it will mushy and real soft and smell like sewer. Our old home was never cleaned out until two years ago and it had been there since 1974. Come to find out toilet paper was stopped up in the pipe leading to it right in the bend of the pipe. That system had cast pipes which probably had rust to catch the paper according to the septic guy. Most time they charge 150-175 to do it. All homes now have PVC which hardly ever gets stopped up.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Here are a few pics from of my grandmothers neighborhood in western Mass the first is her house the second the road out front. I have been up there when there was actually more than this on the ground back in 2002.

My yard didnt look far from that here in 1980, I am 38 now hopefully I live to see another 1980 type storm I figure I got a good 40 yrs left surely it will happen by then....right :unsure:

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

Here are a few pics from of my grandmothers neighborhood in western Mass the first is her house the second the road out front. I have been up there when there was actually more than this on the ground back in 2002.

My yard didnt look far from that here in 1980, I am 38 now hopefully I live to see another 1980 type storm I figure I got a good 40 yrs left surely it will happen by then....right :unsure:

Wow, that's pretty amazing. I lived north of Boston (near Lawrence if you know where that is) and never saw more than a foot or so fall in the two years I was there. I just remember the winters being always cloudy and it getting dark at 4 PM...I do miss getting 50" of snow a year though!

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snowforme

snowforme

Posted
Posted

OK, since this is the general banter thread I hope I won't get attacked for saying this. While I'm really happy for all of our southern neighbors who might get snow I'm going to be really bummed if RDU gets rain. Haven't the tri-cities gotten over 50" of snow this winter? How about spreading the love to the Triangle? :) I wasn't here in 2000 so the most I've ever seen in a winter is about 10". If RDU ever got anything close to 2000 again I would be flat out giddy. While we needed the rain yesterday I hated seeing the temp steady at 34, grrrr...

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