EmersonGA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 To me this storm reminds me of the January 2008 afternoon surprise snow. We were supposed to have a cold rain that night but it never warmed past the mid 30s. The precip moved in and wetbulbed the temp down to 31 or 32. We picked up a quick 1 or 2 inches before it turned to sleet and then rain. That one broke a two year drought but it broke my heart since it never changed over just to my north. This one has a similar looking precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 To me this storm reminds me of the January 2008 afternoon surprise snow. We were supposed to have a cold rain that night but it never warmed past the mid 30s. The precip moved in and wetbulbed the temp down to 31 or 32. We picked up a quick 1 or 2 inches before it turned to sleet and then rain. That one broke a two year droug but it broke my heart since it never changed over just to my north. This one has a similar looking precip shield. Good point Emerson! I cannot remember a "surprise" around here since the Carolina Crusher! I joined WWBB soon afterwards (wright weather) because of that surprise on "the good side"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Have you actually spoken to him or are you just talking about what he said on-air? On air ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just to see how the models handled this mini CAD event currently today without precip we have been on the slide since midnight,. Afternoon high was 38, Currently at GSO we have 36/27 with a wetbulb of 32.6 No moisture around but maybe some drizzle by morning. Models where to high, so something to consider late week, if a potential event does happen. Current soil temps, still pretty cool in NC despite recent warmth: http://www.agronatio...rature-map.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just to see how the models handled this mini CAD event currently today without precip we have been on the slide since midnight,. Afternoon high was 38, Currently at GSO we have 36/27 with a wetbulb of 32.6 No moisture around but maybe some drizzle by morning. Models where to high, so something to consider late week, if a potential event does happen. Current soil temps, still pretty cool in NC despite recent warmth: http://www.agronatio...rature-map.aspx Sheesh. 65 on this side of the mountains today. Felt wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just to see how the models handled this mini CAD event currently today without precip we have been on the slide since midnight,. Afternoon high was 38, Currently at GSO we have 36/27 with a wetbulb of 32.6 No moisture around but maybe some drizzle by morning. Models where to high, so something to consider late week, if a potential event does happen. Current soil temps, still pretty cool in NC despite recent warmth: http://www.agronatio...rature-map.aspx Reached a high temperature of 44 around 4pmish today. The temp and WB temp has dropped a degree the past 30 minutes to 40. Winds are between 5-8 variable from the NE. Thanks UNCCMETGRAD for the link to MESOWEST. Awesome site to find up to the minute data in your area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z GFS looks somewhat warmer but came in a tad wetter. Goodnite everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z GFS looks like lots of bitter cold rain for most of us. EDIT: Actually, it does have some snow in northern Alabama and Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow...we get a proposed cold shot then a warm up through Mid Feb, per the 0z GFS. Man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z CMC holds course with its ice storm for the northern/western Piedmont and foothills. To me, the CMC looks like snow to sleet to ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Incredible 850mb temp gradient on the CMC at hr48. +10deg C in Columbia to -10deg C in Chattanooga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro is phasing the Northern Plains and Texas system into one massive longwave, sends temps skyrocketing in the Southeast at 96 hours, with deep southerly flow. There may be some snow in nw Miss, and western TN but a lot of rain in Ala, Ga and the Carolinas through 96 hours. I haven't seen past 102 hours...even warmer then, with a lot of rain in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well with these massive snowstorms it is very common for a whole new pattern to develop. Specifics are yet to be worked out, but you can be assured the storm in the midwest is some type of game changer for us. Good or bad is the question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 06 Nam and GFS very similar...not good but the timing will change a little hopefully. GSP has me with some hope to see something this weekend. currently 39° and drizzling..nasty Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain after 1am, mixing with snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday: A chance of rain and snow before 8am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro is phasing the Northern Plains and Texas system into one massive longwave, sends temps skyrocketing in the Southeast at 96 hours, with deep southerly flow. There may be some snow in nw Miss, and western TN but a lot of rain in Ala, Ga and the Carolinas through 96 hours. I haven't seen past 102 hours...even warmer then, with a lot of rain in the Carolinas. The Euro and GFS in good agreement for the cold outbreak in the 8-10th range then the GFS goes torch afterwards. Don't like this ridge pattern, I want some blocking to return dang it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 To me this storm reminds me of the January 2008 afternoon surprise snow. We were supposed to have a cold rain that night but it never warmed past the mid 30s. The precip moved in and wetbulbed the temp down to 31 or 32. We picked up a quick 1 or 2 inches before it turned to sleet and then rain. That one broke a two year drought but it broke my heart since it never changed over just to my north. This one has a similar looking precip shield. Good point, I remember that one well. The call up here was for .maybe a dusting and then some light freezing rain before going to all rain. Picked up almost 8 inches before the change to rain. My daughter and I stayed out until 2am as they had already cancelled school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SE Ridge off SE coast is very impressive. Keeps a firm grip on the pattern preventing the cold from behind the departing midwest blizzard from penetrating over the NC Mountains. ---- On separate note, very impressive system in the midwest today. When was the last time we had a maturing mid latitude cyclone affecting our are while AT THE SAME TIME an impressive high with a surge of cold air was coming down. Seems like ages ago. Our storms always seem to come while the cold is starting it's departure. I had monitored the observations in the Kansas City area last night and early this morning. Very impressive influx of cold air into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice little rainstorm coming up this Friday/Saturday..... Here's what the Big Dog had to say this morning... He said the next storm is going to rain on the East Coast this weekend, What a surprise ! He said the back of the eastern winter will break in mid- and late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A storm around the 7th would also match Roger Smith's theory about the phases of the moon affecting the the frequency of the storm pattern. Very interesting. He said the 7th and 21st would be prime times for the likely hood of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 9z sref has the 850 freezing line at 87 hours running along the nc ga border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A storm around the 7th would also match Roger Smith's theory about the phases of the moon affecting the the frequency of the storm pattern. Very interesting. He said the 7th and 21st would be prime times for the likely hood of winter weather. I would "google" Roger Smith but there are only about 100K of them. Who is this Roger Smith you speak of Dacula? TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Blizzard warnings stretching from OK to MI. Warnings from NM to ME. 999mb already and dropping rapidly... even faster than progged by practically every model. Lake flood warning in Chicago for 25 foot waves. Holy ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 9z sref has the 850 freezing line at 87 hours running along the nc ga border. Interesting it's keeping the cold, my SREF isn't working right now through stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One thing to keep in mind is how badly the models are handling this current storm. If it is that big of a beast wouldn't it have implications for colder air filtering into us? Once this thing moves out we might see a reversal of fortunes for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One thing to keep in mind is how badly the models are handling this current storm. If it is that big of a beast wouldn't it have implications for colder air filtering into us? Once this thing moves out we might see a reversal of fortunes for us. Yes the stronger the first storm is the more cold air will get pushed into nc. If that low can bomb in eastern Canada it will funnel cold air south. And keep the Friday storm from cutting inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That could make things interesting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yes the stronger the first storm is the more cold air will get pushed into nc. If that low can bomb in eastern Canada it will funnel cold air south. And keep the Friday storm from cutting inland. And that could be what the models are struggling with...what exactly to do with the low. Another thing that could work in our favor is the snow pack out in the central US...it COULD help push more cold air down and maybe over them mountains that always screw us.....however I've heard this a billion times and rarely seen it actually enhance the cold air for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And that could be what the models are struggling with...what exactly to do with the low. Another thing that could work in our favor is the snow pack out in the central US...it COULD help push more cold air down and maybe over them mountains that always screw us.....however I've heard this a billion times and rarely seen it actually enhance the cold air for us. Its the southeast ridge that is keeping the cold from coming too far into the southeast. Its back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its the southeast ridge that is keeping the cold from coming too far into the southeast. Its back! Yep and the 12z NAM is continuing the warming trend...and at this rate Corpus Christi will be getting flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The one really good thing about this week is it looks like we will for sure get some good soaking rains out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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