oconeexman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maybe its just me, but the trend the last 24 hours seems to be warmer... combine this with a pretty warm 12z Euro and I just don't feel confident that anyone in the Carolinas or Georgia will be able to get wintry precipitation. Would like to know your's and Lookout's and other Mets thoughts as to why the Euro has started struggling so bad lately. Earlier in the season it was the best as usual in the mid-range and longer ranges...now it just flat out stinks at any range, flipping from run to run. Was it the change in pattersn from -NAO blocking to the PNA ridge that it can't handle now? Just curious and didn't know the right place to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why is there even a DGEX model at all? What purpose could it possibly serve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z nam is bringing moisture into nc at 84 hours. Usually the nam is too slow. I hope its right on timing. I still think the n ga mtns and points north will see at least a front end snow with this. If this can trend one or two degrees colder some people will get a good snow. Looks like the 12"+ bullseye is over Robert's house. Got another bullseye over NE GA's house. I'll take it. Seriously overall the models are actually in reasonable agreement for so far out, but the NAm seems faster. I have't been paying much attention to the Wx. lately due to other things, but in the next couple of days I'll have more time to check out this storm,maybe tonight after the Euro as I'm def. burning the midnight oil lately. I agree with Lookout's synopsis of how this could play out. Its hard to envision the models being too cold , and usually they're too warm, esp. on teh evap. cooling potential and any in-situ cad, and considering its a coastal and very deep in the Gulf to begin, true overrunning like this is usually cold here on the northern side, but the temps aloft are shown to warm just enough on most models to turn to rain, but its a close call overall. Its a sort of very unique setup on this, with one high or several over teh Ohio Valley, and one in Texas, but the parent high in Ohio slides out the coast of NC, either way this event will be determined by the cold aloft and evap cooling potential and right now I think N. Ga and western NC, eastern TN have the highest actual chance at signif. Winter wx types.. A little colder aloft and drier airmass entrenched, coupled with NAM's early arrival would throw more Winter wx precip chances to more folks. but its too early to really pick this to death yet, or get hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why is there even a DGEX model at all? What purpose could it possibly serve? It's purpose is to deceive snow weenies like us and crush our hearts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Fox 8 's Van the man Denton said he was pretty confident it will be rain Friday/Saturday 47 Friday and 50 Saturday for high's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why is there even a DGEX model at all? What purpose could it possibly serve? Two words: Brick Tamland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Fox 8 's Van the man Denton said he was pretty confident it will be rain Friday/Saturday 47 Friday and 50 Saturday for high's Have you actually spoken to him or are you just talking about what he said on-air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Van Denton is not that good. Is usually behind on the models. Chilton is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If you're going to bring that crappy snow hole here to Bartow Dixie you best be packing up and heading back to Cherokee. LOL! I always hated the DGEX anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If any set up were ever going to trend colder for N. Georgia due to poor model recognition of true low level artic air's ability to push further se into a sw flow aloft, this one is it. The air mass to our west starts Wendsday morning with single digit temps all the down into N Texas. After fropa early Wednsday here, 2m winds are progged out of the west and northwest at 15-20 mph for 24 hours. 850 winds average around 40 mph. We should have a good idea by late Wednesday if temps and dew points ahead of our storm are going to bust cold simply based on obs then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's purpose is to deceive snow weenies like us and crush our hearts! LOL! That's the only reason I could come up with too. What if Fishel trotted out the DGEX on the weather tonight? "Yeah, I know we were showing all rain yesterday, but the hot off the presses DGEX just came out with snow, so now we're not so sure..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Two words: Brick Tamland. Haha! Where is Brick anyway? Maybe the banter thread? I haven't had much chance to visit that today.... Been on BB most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Van Denton is not that good. Is usually behind on the models. Chilton is better. Wow!!! How long have you lived here? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks. I hope we get a little something before the 35 degree rain moves in. lol c'mon now, I've lost count on how many times you were sitting subfreezing and getting freezing rain/ip/snow while just about everyone else was suffering with those 33 degree temps lol. My memory sucks but either last year or the year before alone I know you had a few more than most of us. Besides most of those 33 degree rains you had were well scouted ahead of time. In this case, I think the signs point to your area getting at least a little something..certainly a much better chance than the lower elevations as 950mb temps/wetbulbs look cold enough for a period of snow/sleet/freezing rain for a little while. lol - thats true....i guess its just i dont remember those (i remember them as a winter event instead) but i certainly remember the 33 and rain ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Van Denton is not that good. Is usually behind on the models. Chilton is better. Sorry Daddyx, but... > I really don't understand your love for Eric Chilton. Van Denton is the best in the Triad by a large margin. EDIT: Forgot about our man Matthew East! I don't watch News 14 much, but I can recall him doing pretty well with some of our storms in the past. LOL! That's the only reason I could come up with too. What if Fishel trotted out the DGEX on the weather tonight? "Yeah, I know we were showing all rain yesterday, but the hot off the presses DGEX just came out with snow, so now we're not so sure..." LOL, that would be classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good thing the DGEX is a crap model. I would be pissed if I got 1-3" and the rest of N GA east of me got 6-12" haha anyways looking forward to the models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sorry Daddyx, but... > I really don't understand your love for Eric Chilton. Van Denton is the best in the Triad by a large margin. This convo really should be in the banter forum but... Van denton is just as good as Chilton. BUT WRAL is better, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 21z sref came in colder at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'd rate Fischel the best of the triad and triangle ocm's. Matthew is next and then Van/Austin. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 21z sref came in colder at 850. So 34 and rain instead of 35 and rain? Fantastic. We won't know what's going to happen until after Groundhog Day. Only Phil knows the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 00z NAM isn't as wet as the 18z out to 69 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It looks like the 00z NAM is falling more in line with the GFS as far as timing goes out to 72 and very light QPF is on the edge of ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 @75 it's not as cold. 850 line is running on the NC/SC border through CLT and just north of ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM not as cold as the 18z run so far. Lets see where this run goes at the end. @ 78 its warmer than the 18z and has the main precip further south... South of ATL and CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM says no dice...@84 moisture hasn't even made it into GSP and our cold air is starting to retreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM says no dice...@84 moisture hasn't even made it into GSP and our cold air is starting to retreat. You mean 0z NAM? And as Burger said @ 84 moisture is just starting to move into Atlanta. Looks like its crawling north. Temps don't look too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A lot of the guys in the Midwest forum are discounting the NAM due to several issues early in its run, so that may have had an effect downstream. We'll see. It may have just been wishcasting on their parts, but some of the mets thought it had problems, too. 0Z NAm still way east and weak. What a junk model it is right now. Conceptually not looking right based on the upper levels. Yeah it is the only piece of guidance continually so weak in the upper height fields and remaining an open wave. Massive differences in magnitude between the NAM and other guidance of the upper wave. The SREF NMM members are much better--NAM is once again out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A lot of the guys in the Midwest forum are discounting the NAM due to several issues early in its run, so that may have had an effect downstream. We'll see. It may have just been wishcasting on their parts, but some of the mets thought it had problems, too. According to baroclinic_instability, it has a big area of 1008mb SLP in Texas now, when there are already places that are at 1002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is right where we want the NAM at 84h.........South! Don't worry the north trend will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 According to baroclinic_instability, it has a big area of 1008mb SLP in Texas now, when there are already places that are at 1002. Yep. The NAM has a big blob looking 1008 closed contour into Texas and there are surface sites reporting 1002. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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