burrel2 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I find it interesting that the NAM is much faster with the onset of precip than any other model. Generally, the NAM has a slow bias with storms moving in.If we can get this storm to come in Thursday evening, I think we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yep, can't trust the 84 hour NAM as far as the 300+ hour GFS fantasy storms I wouldn't be so quick to discredit it. The Canadian and GFS are backing it up so it isn't totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I sure hope that simulated radar is close, if so we would be in for quite the surprise I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well the 18z GFS looks more like the 12z GFS @84...it might be a tad colder certainly is no 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Brandon Vincent at RAH says no: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 315 PM... MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION EVENT. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR THE CAROLINAS. IT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. SHOULD PRECIPITATION ARRIVE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IN THE NORTH... TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. IF PRECIPITATION IS DELAYED... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT... WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EASTERN PARTS. THE ECMWF WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PATTERN WOULD EXTEND PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL OMIT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT... AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I will eat my hat if SW AL gets 6"+ of snow.....(18z NAM) http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_SE078.gif Well, it happened in 2008, so it could happen again. The 18z DGEX should provide us with some solid model porn this evening!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Brandon Vincent at RAH says no: CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUES LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.-- End Changed Discussion -- The 18z GFS agrees with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah we have to keep in mind it is the 84 hour nam (the 18z run no less) but it's still interesting. This run actually shows subfreezing surface temps now over northeast Ga and the upstate. Given the cold boundary layer and east/northeast winds within it, there would likely be a period of significant freezing rain over northeast ga/upstate after the mid levels warm. Reason I say this is the nam has a rather deep subfreezing layer so it's not going to warm very quickly..at least not likely fast enough to prevent a good bit of sleet/freezing rain since the precip should be rather robust pretty quickly. Also keep in mind the models are often 1 to 3 degrees too warm in evaporational cooling situations. I've watched countless number of these and have kept track of their errors and that is often the margin of error. So it's possible we are looking at an even larger area of subfreezing temps. I would seem The main difference between the nam and gfs is the nam starts off colder and with lower dewpoints from the start. It will be interesting to see which model verifies. I'm actually sort of surprised to see the nam this cold. Normally it would be the warmer model at the surface so it's interesting. Taken literally it is a snow to sleet/freezing rain scenerio for many in northeast ga/upstate and probably the same beyond the forecast period for western nc...and with likely significant accumulations...especially ice in ga/sc. But as you said, this is the 84 hour nam and we all know how bad it is. But if the gfs starts trending colder at the surface..and equally as important lower dewpoints, we might just have something here. this, i believe, would constitute the 'old fashioned cad' from pre2005 lol. with the huge variations in models i just cant seem to get any kind of idea about the weekend. i would love to see things start looking better for a cad as it would be fun to track. my main concern about the event was trying to get the colder temps over the Apps and keep the warm bubble away, hopefully that wont be a concern after a couple of more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS at 84 hours: 18z NAM at 84 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like a pretty wet storm on the 18z GFS. Can anyone chime in on temperature trends over the past couple of runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like a pretty wet storm on the 18z GFS. Can anyone chime in on temperature trends over the past couple of runs? still not really feeling the warm fuzzies on the gfs...temps look just above freezing at the surface at the same time period the NAM was below freezing. looks like the gfs is trying to put down a little snow overnight friday but the temps just dont look quite cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 18z GFS agrees with him. gfs is slow to move precip into the rdu area and north carolina in general, which will likely allow them to warm up. However, precip moves into north ga/upstate during the late overnight hours where wetbulbs are at or below freezing..which is colder than the 12z run. Timing for ga/upstate couldn't be better Regardless, the nam continues to be colder with lower dewpoints *before* the precip moves in. Timing and precip placement differences aside, the colder/lower dewpoints in the boundary layer (especially over western carolinas/ga) is the main difference. That said, this run is a little bit colder and still implies that precip should start as snow or snow/sleet over north ga/upstate. Given the subfreezing wetbulbs along and north of 85, it would then transition to a period of freezing rain. The gfs to me shows cold enough temps in the 925mb to 975mb layer to allow this to happen for a little while before going over to just a cold rain. This run (and in general)Best chances for anything wintery certainly is located over north ga, upstate, western nc, and northern/northeast alabama. Northwest Ga is also in a good spot this run with rome looking like mostly a snow or snow/sleet sounding through hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The only thing you need to know for around here is the GFS hasnt been close to a storm for almost 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This run of the gfs is so close to all snow for a lot western nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 still not really feeling the warm fuzzies on the gfs...temps look just above freezing at the surface at the same time period the NAM was below freezing. looks like the gfs is trying to put down a little snow overnight friday but the temps just dont look quite cold enough Dude, you are in the best spot as usual and are the most likely to get something. I understand your pessimism but I often have to laugh because your elevation almost guarantees you get something in situations like this. And honestly, you should know by now the temps are likely to be a degree or two colder than advertised in a situation such as this. But Nam easily has you cold enough for a major event while the gfs has you with subfreezing wetbulbs before precip moves in. Again I don't feel like the gfs has a handle on the evaporational cooling aspect and as such feel like the temps are too warm in some areas, especially where you are. Higher elevations, especially above 1500 feet, stand a good shot at getting a decent amount of something other than rain imo as it stands right now. Chances are you do change to rain eventually but not before several tenths fall as something other than rain. Could it change? Of course but this is the way it looks right now to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe its just me, but the trend the last 24 hours seems to be warmer... combine this with a pretty warm 12z Euro and I just don't feel confident that anyone in the Carolinas or Georgia will be able to get wintry precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice to have your input today Lookout. Some interesting trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Dude, you are in the best spot as usual and are the most likely to get something. I understand your pessimism but I often have to laugh because your elevation almost guarantees you get something in situations like this. And honestly, you should know by now the temps are likely to be a degree or two colder than advertised in a situation such as this. But Nam easily has you cold enough for a major event while the gfs has you with subfreezing wetbulbs before precip moves in. Again I don't feel like the gfs has a handle on the evaporational cooling aspect and as such feel like the temps are too warm in some areas, especially where you are. Higher elevations, especially above 1500 feet, stand a good shot at getting a decent amount of something other than rain imo as it stands right now. Chances are you do change to rain eventually but not before several tenths fall as something other than rain. Could it change? Of course but this is the way it looks right now to me. lol - although the last few years that hasnt been the case, really...mby also stopped at the dreaded 33 and rain instead of that little extra drop into the upper 20s that i had gotten accustomed to. i was a bit surprised when i started checking the board and then models late this afternoon...i had sort of brushed off the idea of anything interesting in the next week or so, and am pleasantly surprised that we might have something in a couple of days. still not sold on temps yet the way models have been waffling...a degree or two could make a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe its just me, but the trend the last 24 hours seems to be warmer... combine this with a pretty warm 12z Euro and I just don't feel confident that anyone in the Carolinas or Georgia will be able to get wintry precipitation. lol ..Not sure where you are getting that from, Nam and gfs have trended colder or have held their ground for north ga/western carolinas. Your map is way beyond the time period in question..indeed No one, including me, is saying this is going to be an all winter event for anyone, it will change to rain eventually. The issue is what, how much, and where wintery precip falls before a changeover. It could be a little and not be significant or it could be significant but it would be surprising to me if no one does over north ga/upstate/northeast al, and southwest nc based on timing, temps, and the very low wetbulbs throughout the column. This is not a given though and I am simply discussing the possibilities based on what the models are giving us at the moment. It could certainly change and be warmer but as of now, this is what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 lol ..Not sure where you are getting that from, Nam and gfs have trended colder or have held their ground for north ga/western carolinas. Your map is way beyond the time period in question..indeed No one, including me, is saying this is going to be an all winter event for anyone, it will change to rain eventually. The issue is what, how much, and where wintery precip falls before a changeover. It could be a little and not be significant or it could be significant but it would be surprising to me if no one does over north ga/upstate/northeast al, and southwest nc based on timing, temps, and the very low wetbulbs throughout the column. This is not a given though and I am simply discussing the possibilities based on what the models are giving us at the moment. It could certainly change and be warmer but as of now, this is what I see. Thinking the same thing. Definetly a colder trend today. This will be fun to watch and I belive we will get a better idea in model world after our Lakes Cutter gets off the map midweek. Honestly I beleive that storm will be able to drag down the cold air a little better than being advertised by euro and even gfs. Of course things could always trend the other direction with warmer air or less qpf, slower timing e.t.c.. The euro is IMO hanging things back a liitle to long. By the way, a local tv met has chance of freezing drizzle in the forecast for Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 lol ..Not sure where you are getting that from, Nam and gfs have trended colder or have held their ground for north ga/western carolinas. Your map is way beyond the time period in question..indeed No one, including me, is saying this is going to be an all winter event for anyone, it will change to rain eventually. The issue is what, how much, and where wintery precip falls before a changeover. It could be a little and not be significant or it could be significant but it would be surprising to me if no one does over north ga/upstate/northeast al, and southwest nc based on timing, temps, and the very low wetbulbs throughout the column. This is not a given though and I am simply discussing the possibilities based on what the models are giving us at the moment. It could certainly change and be warmer but as of now, this is what I see. Ok, fair enough. I guess the ECWMF is showing a period between the 24 hour intervals where there are sub-freezing 850mb temps in WNC and NE Georgia? The 18z gfs and 18z nam verbatim show snow initially before going over to rain (or freezing rain in the case of the Nam). The nam is interesting because it moves in the precipitation much faster than the rest of the model guidance. Considering its recently has a slow bias, we should defiantly take note! However, I've noticed that the GFS has trended from a mainly snow event in WNC to more of a snow to rain senerio. When I saw the very warm 120 hr ECWMF panel (which is warmer than any interval the GFS has during the storm) I was assuming that the gfs has been recently trending towards the Euro at least temperature wise. I don't have time to post 850 mb maps now, but the last 4 runs of the gfs have been mainly warmer than the runs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice to have your input today Lookout. Some interesting trends today. Thanks. I hope we get a little something before the 35 degree rain moves in. lol - although the last few years that hasnt been the case, really...mby also stopped at the dreaded 33 and rain instead of that little extra drop into the upper 20s that i had gotten accustomed to. i was a bit surprised when i started checking the board and then models late this afternoon...i had sort of brushed off the idea of anything interesting in the next week or so, and am pleasantly surprised that we might have something in a couple of days. still not sold on temps yet the way models have been waffling...a degree or two could make a huge difference lol c'mon now, I've lost count on how many times you were sitting subfreezing and getting freezing rain/ip/snow while just about everyone else was suffering with those 33 degree temps lol. My memory sucks but either last year or the year before alone I know you had a few more than most of us. Besides most of those 33 degree rains you had were well scouted ahead of time. In this case, I think the signs point to your area getting at least a little something..certainly a much better chance than the lower elevations as 950mb temps/wetbulbs look cold enough for a period of snow/sleet/freezing rain for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the 12"+ bullseye is over Robert's house. Got another bullseye over NE GA's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What a putrid map!!!! :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like the 12"+ bullseye is over Robert's house. Got another bullseye over NE GA's house. Well, the DGEX has been consistently giving winter precip for the SE over the past couple of days. I believe at one point it was east of what it's currently showing. I believe that it performed well with ONE storm this winter!!!????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like the 12"+ bullseye is over Robert's house. Got another bullseye over NE GA's house. I got a hat that I will eat if that map verifies. 12 inches IMBY....lol. I would rather see the bullseye south of me at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like the 12"+ bullseye is over Robert's house. Got another bullseye over NE GA's house. Yea you can add me to the bullseye...never good to be in any bullseye this far out...and on the DGEX! But hey i'd take it if it were to pan out...at least we have something to watch for the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, the DGEX has been consistently giving winter precip for the SE over the past couple of days. I believe at one point it was east of what it's currently showing. I believe that it performed well with ONE storm this winter!!!????? Yeah, a few days ago it had the Coastal Plain getting nailed and kept WNC high and dry. Then it shifted WAY west and took everyone in NC outside the mountains out of the game and now it's back east some again. I wouldn't mind just cashing in with this run (I'll be in GSO this weekend if they get that much snow)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If you're going to bring that crappy snow hole here to Bartow Dixie you best be packing up and heading back to Cherokee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.