Feb 5th and 6th Storm

[Lookout]

Thanks for the analysis. I always like when you are around to break things down.

Thanks . It feels good to know someone pays much attention to me lol

Out to 102, it's certainly wetter than the 0z run. 0.10 amounts from northern al/ga south. But still no where near as wet as the gfs. As a result, 850s stay between 0 and 4c for everyone. (0c has retreated to the nc/va border). Interestingly though, surface temps are at freezing from rome to blairsville and across most of nc in the morning, though with lack of precip everyone warms up to near 40.

[Lookout]

Bottom line with the euro is it's mainly a rain event for most. It is slower than the gfs. Gfs has the low south of the florida panhandle at 108 while the euro is southeast of la. Probably starting as sleet most areas though just based on the other models and their very dry air. So between the slower start and less precip initially to take advantage of our low wetbulbs and cool morning lows, it looks like mostly rain. However, the euro has trended toward the gfs here so a little credit goes to the gfs.

[Cheeznado]

Euro is pretty blah as I suspected. The surface low does take a favorable track and there is minor CAD- so some very piddly mainly in the AM frozen precip is possible especially in western NC, but this is a rain event in general I am afraid.

[FoothillsNC]

The Euro looks like its going to be just barely too warm. Like Lookout said the 850's could cool a little , but the surface high slides out and eventually when precip gets going good it sends temps here to +4, its a little colder west of the Apps but not much moisture associated with the Upper low there. Also warms DC to NYC with rain. Just a bad setup , we need the surface high to remain inland over the Ohio Valley, or a much colder start to the storm. The track of the low is great, we just don't get cold after storm number 1 goes by, which is a shame to see the coldest air of the season not make it in here after the cold Winter thus far. If the air is much colder and drier to start, there could be some snow and ice in some areas, its still far enough away to change somewhat.

[Lookout]

The Euro looks like its going to be just barely too warm. Like Lookout said the 850's could cool a little , but the surface high slides out and eventually when precip gets going good it sends temps here to +4, its a little colder west of the Apps but not much moisture associated with the Upper low there. Also warms DC to NYC with rain. Just a bad setup , we need the surface high to remain inland over the Ohio Valley, or a much colder start to the storm. The track of the low is great, we just don't get cold after storm number 1 goes by, which is a shame to see the coldest air of the season not make it in here after the cold Winter thus far. If the air is much colder and drier to start, there could be some snow and ice in some areas, its still far enough away to change somewhat.

We need to remember not to take the euro as gospel though. It's an outlier compared to the rest of the models.

Frankly getting anything in this pattern, even if it's just a few hours worth, should be looked at as a bonus. I would be pretty happy with a period of sleet/snow before going to rain..even if it's not a lot. But honestly, there could be some appreciable amounts of frozen precip if these other models play out for some areas so I would not be dismissing this so hastily. Just my opinion though. I do fear that it will trend north, amplify more, and slows down, then we are looking out our classic 35 degree rain but there is a window of opportunity right now.

[DaculaWeather]

Thanks . It feels good to know someone pays much attention to me lol

If it wasn't for you guys, I don't know where I'd get my weather from. Love the disco's ALL the time. I like the nitty gritty stuff anyway, so the more disco's the better.

EDIT: I've gone from a high of 51.9 at noon to 42.7 now and falling at 2.3 deg/hr and that is currently the low since midnight.

The high was suppose to be 55 and low tonight 45.

[Cold Rain]

Another fantasy mini ice age on the 12Z Euro in the long range. I'm sure the -20 850s will be more like +6 on the verification date.

[Weather Czar]

LOL..

HPC

THE BLOCKY...SPLIT FLOW...WITH THE EMERGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...IS LEADING THE MODELS A MERRY

CHASE. THE 12Z/31 DETERMINISTIC MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF

POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WENDING THEIR

WAY THROUGH THE CONVOLUTED FLOW. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BRING A

WAVE NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DAY 5...WITH THE

UKMET KEEPING THE IMPULSE FLAT AND SHEARED. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP

IS NOT THE BEST FOR A WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE...SO FEEL THE LESS

ENTHUSIASTIC ECENS MEAN USED FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE SHOULD SUFFICE

FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE...THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE ECENS

MEAN SHOULD MITIGATE THE DISPARATE DIRECTIONS TAKEN BY ANY

PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC MODEL

[phil882]

I gotta say... the GGEM looks really nice for WNC, but its totally in La La Land... it shows Classical CAD (with a slightly displaced southerly surface high) despite the lack of a blocking 500mb low to its north. I just don't buy it one bit. The high will quickly slide off rather than stay locked over the northeast.

The GFS and ECWMF solutions are a lot more feasible in my opinion in depicting a mainly rain event for the majority of the Southeast.

[SN_Lover]

JMA is showing a decent rainstorm for parts of the southeast

[BullCityWx]

I gotta say... the GGEM looks really nice for WNC, but its totally in La La Land... it shows Classical CAD (with a slightly displaced southerly surface high) despite the lack of a blocking 500mb low to its north. I just don't buy it one bit. The high will quickly slide off rather than stay locked over the northeast.

The GFS and ECWMF solutions are a lot more feasible in my opinion in depicting a mainly rain event for the majority of the Southeast.

yeah, too bad it's all by itself.

[BullCityWx]

[burgertime]

Don't look now but the NAM @84 is VERY close for us (WNC and CLT)...probably virga but if can move in faster we are in business.

[oconeexman]

Those are some interesting maps QC. Thanks for posting them!

In the last 3 years of following Eastern and now American and trying to learn and keep up, I can not remember a time or winter season of such model jumping from run to run. I have no idea which model to rely on or believe in other than the RUC right now.

[BullCityWx]

Don't look now but the NAM @84 is VERY close for us (WNC and CLT)...probably virga but if can move in faster we are in business.

Lots of potential for evaportative cooling in this sounding at hour 84:

PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT  WND DIR  WND SPD
HPA       M      C     C       DEG     M/S  
E = Estimated Surface Height

 998.   247.E   1.6   -6.8   157.0     1.3
 975.   436.    0.7   -9.1   142.0     4.6
 950.   643.   -1.0  -10.1   139.8     4.1
 925.   856.   -1.6  -13.1   136.4     5.8
 900.  1073.   -1.2  -16.0   141.8     7.2
 875.  1297.   -2.0  -16.9   164.6     6.1
 850.  1527.   -2.2  -17.0   180.2     5.1
 825.  1765.   -0.7  -15.6   206.9     5.5
 800.  2010.   -0.3  -11.2   210.8     5.8
 775.  2264.   -1.2   -8.1   218.8     4.6
 750.  2525.   -2.3   -7.3   225.3     4.5
 725.  2794.   -2.5   -6.8   229.3     5.4
 700.  3072.   -3.3   -6.1   232.6     7.7
 650.  3657.   -4.6   -5.7   242.9    15.7
 600.  4285.   -7.1   -8.1   259.0    21.4
 550.  4958.  -10.9  -12.3   266.9    23.7
 500.  5686.  -14.4  -15.9   252.7    30.8
 450.  6477.  -19.2  -20.7   247.3    35.9
 400.  7344.  -24.8  -26.3   242.8    39.9
 350.  8301.  -32.0  -33.3   243.7    45.0
 300.  9369.  -40.8  -43.9   245.3    47.5
 250. 10583.  -51.0  -54.7   250.3    51.8
 200. 12002.  -57.1  -61.9   260.9    61.9
 150. 13812.  -60.7  -70.3   267.8    58.1
 100. 16285.  -66.8  -76.7   266.3    38.3
  50. 20472.  -65.5  -77.5   308.2     8.5

[oconeexman]

Don't look now but the NAM @84 is VERY close for us (WNC and CLT)...probably virga but if can move in faster we are in business.

sure is!

[BullCityWx]

GSP looks like snow:

PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT  WND DIR  WND SPD
HPA       M      C     C       DEG     M/S  
E = Estimated Surface Height

 993.   279.E  -0.6   -1.3    60.8     1.8
 975.   422.   -2.0   -2.5    75.4     2.8
 950.   628.   -3.4   -3.9    92.3     4.4
 925.   838.   -3.7   -4.1   109.5     5.4
 900.  1055.   -3.2   -3.6   112.8     4.1
 875.  1279.   -1.1   -1.2   158.2     4.0
 850.  1511.    0.0    0.0   188.1     8.6
 825.  1750.    0.0    0.0   209.6    12.0
 800.  1997.   -0.2   -0.2   221.9    13.6
 775.  2251.   -0.2   -0.2   233.7    15.5
 750.  2514.   -0.2   -0.2   242.3    19.0
 725.  2785.   -0.3   -0.3   241.8    19.7
 700.  3066.   -1.1   -1.2   244.0    16.6
 650.  3654.   -3.8   -4.2   248.2    15.1
 600.  4283.   -6.5   -7.3   243.0    23.8
 550.  4960.   -9.9  -11.0   247.5    29.1
 500.  5689.  -13.8  -15.2   241.6    32.7
 450.  6484.  -17.5  -18.8   235.5    38.4
 400.  7355.  -23.9  -25.2   236.1    41.0
 350.  8315.  -31.4  -33.1   239.7    41.4
 300.  9386.  -40.2  -41.5   241.3    40.2
 250. 10601.  -51.1  -54.8   246.1    43.8
 200. 12020.  -56.8  -62.4   256.1    58.7
 150. 13829.  -61.2  -70.0   261.6    56.4
 100. 16296.  -67.2  -76.9   263.8    39.8
  50. 20474.  -65.7  -77.2   292.9     7.4

Too bad it's the 84 hour NAM

[burgertime]

Lots of potential for evaportative cooling in this sounding at hour 84:

Yep that's what I was thinking, if it is just off by the tiniest margins on the temps it could have huge implications either way. Wish we could see the next frame to find out if our cold air source is hanging tough.

[BullCityWx]

Yep that's what I was thinking, if it is just off by the tiniest margins on the temps it could have huge implications either way. Wish we could see the next frame to find out if our cold air source is hanging tough.

Well, at least the wind direction is northerly-northeasterly on most of those levels.

[Weather Czar]

18z nam is bringing moisture into nc at 84 hours. Usually the nam is too slow. I hope its right on timing. I still think the n ga mtns and points north will see at least a front end snow with this. If this can trend one or two degrees colder some people will get a good snow.

[DCMetroWinston]

Interesting model depiction upon animation:

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[burgertime]

Interesting model depiction upon animation:

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

It looks like the NAM is much faster...which given the GGEM if correct would probably mean not such a sloppy mess and more snow....what actually happens though is anybodies guess? Always have to second guess when the Euro is not on your side. Though one silver lining is that the Canadian really nailed last weeks inland track.

[bingcrosbyb]

I will eat my hat if SW AL gets 6"+ of snow.....(18z NAM)

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_SE078.gif

[Cold Rain]

84 hour NAM looks close even for RDU, just going by the coarse maps. I have looked at soundings though.

[AirNelson39]

GSP looks like snow:

Too bad it's the 84 hour NAM

Yep, can't trust the 84 hour NAM as far as the 300+ hour GFS fantasy storms

[packfan98]

I will eat my hat if SW AL gets 6"+ of snow.....(18z NAM)

http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_SE078.gif

what will you do if they get over a foot?

[Weather Czar]

You guys might wanna look at a snow chart. Even folks in atl. Nam at 84 has my 925 temps at almost -5c

[Weather Czar]

It looks like the NAM is much faster...which given the GGEM if correct would probably mean not such a sloppy mess and more snow....what actually happens though is anybodies guess? Always have to second guess when the Euro is not on your side. Though one silver lining is that the Canadian really nailed last weeks inland track.

So did the jma and its more in agreement with the cmc. But I can't see in between 96 and 120 hours.

[Lookout]

GSP looks like snow:

PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT  WND DIR  WND SPD
HPA       M      C     C       DEG     M/S  
E = Estimated Surface Height

 993.   279.E  -0.6   -1.3    60.8     1.8
 975.   422.   -2.0   -2.5    75.4     2.8
 950.   628.   -3.4   -3.9    92.3     4.4
 925.   838.   -3.7   -4.1   109.5     5.4
 900.  1055.   -3.2   -3.6   112.8     4.1
 875.  1279.   -1.1   -1.2   158.2     4.0
 850.  1511.    0.0    0.0   188.1     8.6
 825.  1750.    0.0    0.0   209.6    12.0
 800.  1997.   -0.2   -0.2   221.9    13.6
 775.  2251.   -0.2   -0.2   233.7    15.5
 750.  2514.   -0.2   -0.2   242.3    19.0
 725.  2785.   -0.3   -0.3   241.8    19.7
 700.  3066.   -1.1   -1.2   244.0    16.6
 650.  3654.   -3.8   -4.2   248.2    15.1
 600.  4283.   -6.5   -7.3   243.0    23.8
 550.  4960.   -9.9  -11.0   247.5    29.1
 500.  5689.  -13.8  -15.2   241.6    32.7
 450.  6484.  -17.5  -18.8   235.5    38.4
 400.  7355.  -23.9  -25.2   236.1    41.0
 350.  8315.  -31.4  -33.1   239.7    41.4
 300.  9386.  -40.2  -41.5   241.3    40.2
 250. 10601.  -51.1  -54.8   246.1    43.8
 200. 12020.  -56.8  -62.4   256.1    58.7
 150. 13829.  -61.2  -70.0   261.6    56.4
 100. 16296.  -67.2  -76.9   263.8    39.8
  50. 20474.  -65.7  -77.2   292.9     7.4

Too bad it's the 84 hour NAM

Yeah we have to keep in mind it is the 84 hour nam (the 18z run no less) but it's still interesting. This run actually shows subfreezing surface temps now over northeast Ga and the upstate. Given the cold boundary layer and east/northeast winds within it, there would likely be a period of significant freezing rain over northeast ga/upstate after the mid levels warm. Reason I say this is the nam has a rather deep subfreezing layer so it's not going to warm very quickly..at least not likely fast enough to prevent a good bit of sleet/freezing rain since the precip should be rather robust pretty quickly.

Also keep in mind the models are often 1 to 3 degrees too warm in evaporational cooling situations. I've watched countless number of these and have kept track of their errors and that is often the margin of error. So it's possible we are looking at an even larger area of subfreezing temps. I would seem The main difference between the nam and gfs is the nam starts off colder and with lower dewpoints from the start.

It will be interesting to see which model verifies. I'm actually sort of surprised to see the nam this cold. Normally it would be the warmer model at the surface so it's interesting. Taken literally it is a snow to sleet/freezing rain scenerio for many in northeast ga/upstate and probably the same beyond the forecast period for western nc...and with likely significant accumulations...especially ice in ga/sc.

But as you said, this is the 84 hour nam and we all know how bad it is. But if the gfs starts trending colder at the surface..and equally as important lower dewpoints, we might just have something here.

[packfan98]

See, this is what happens when I don't look at the end of the model run snow output. I end up eating hats and crow.

Sorry, I couldn't help it. Anyway, it looks like there are trends towards a winter event. WILL the Euro jump on board tonight? I have a feeling that things will trend colder after the midwest blizzard wraps up. Usually the models are not cold enough when arctic air invades. Things could get dicey and icey! BTW, the JMA had 3+ inches of precip but it looked warm except for the highest mountains of NC.