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Feb 5th and 6th Storm


CarolinaCrusher2000

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Indeed. I'm not confident to say where or if it will yet but if it this system materializes as the nam/gfs have it, it's possible this could be a significant snow event for some parts of north ga/upstate, and nc. I don't have much doubt the gfs might be underestimating the evaporational cooling potential in the mid levels. The models often times don't see it. If you look at 850mb dewpoints, there is very dry air almost to south ga so cooling via evaporation will will rather widespread.

Sometimes it's often overused that the models underestimate arctic air. However, in this case they might be. The airmass will be coming off a significant snowpack across the plains due to that blizzard. The nam looks colder in the boundary layer and it might be picking up on that fact. It shows some pretty cold air at 925mb to 975mb thursday morning..as low as -6c here. This is sort of unusual though in these situations. Normally it's the surface/boundary layer cold air that has a problem getting over the mountains. But in this case it makes it. As for the mid levels, significant dry air will be in place over a large area. So despite the initially above 0 temps, if there is significant precip, those temps will drop.

We'll see. The euro/canadian don't agree with the gfs/nam here so we'll see what the 12z runs show.

0z cmc

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html:snowman:

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it is snow on the nw shield, so you def. have a shot. One thing about this time range, the current storm may be trending stronger into the Ohio Valley, so far on the GFS it looks to me like it is, and that would help pull in more cold air east of the Apps than the models have been showing. We'll see if the mountain chain still ends up the stopping point, but last nights Euro also for the first time dropped me subzero at 850 for a time, so it may be a trend. In the end, the Wed. storm may be the deciding factor on how far south and east the cold gets. Its really strange to see such a powerful storm, so close, and with a 1052 mb high and all that arctic air just vanish instantly here.

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I've been saying the same thing to myself. It is impressive.

fwiw the 12z nam strongly implies a snow threat here, at least to start. the entire column has wetbulbs way below freezing. Even at the surface, wetbulbs are right at 32 with virga overhead and actual significant precip knocking on the door. This is starting to raise my interest for sure.

I'm glad to see you a little optimistic. If we can just get Cheez to bite a little it would be nice. He's probably still hung over from the beer festival.:devilsmiley: All I need is .4" to put me a double digits for the year.

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And they'll all showing something very different up until the stupid storm gets here. I've totally lost faith in the models this far out, at least for this winter. I'll wait until 2-3 before the storm and even then I'm not so sure they're going to get it right this time either. I hate to be a pessimist but all you have to do is look at the past events so far this winter. And don't get me wrong, I feel confident we will have more winter weather, just not at all confident in the models in predicting it.

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ICE! lmaosmiley.gif

I_nw_g1_EST_2011013112_120.png

Miller Bs... axesmiley.png

Hasn't the Canadian model been terrible this year? Most of the early storms it was way North and West of where they ended up. I believe that the DGEX and JMA have outperformed it. I know that in previous winters it was one of the better models. Will it be correct this time? I have no idea, but the pattern is different with no blocking so we'll see what happens.

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I was mainly referring to timing with the canadian. 12z run looks like a good hit for the mountains/nc foothills. It also suggests now to start for north ga/alabama. It does warm us up aloft but it's interesting there is a pocket of sub freezing 850s at hour 108 over northeast al/nw ga. Obviously picking up on the evaporational cooling..which it does show more than the gfs. I think part of the reason for that is ever since they tweaked the gfs with regards to latent heat release, it doesn't show as much cooling in situations like this. So I don't have much faith in it's temp profiles right now. It also shows some form of wedging and given the cold 925 to 975mb temps the nam is showing (with easterly flow in these levels) and with 850s around 2 to 4c from rome to hartwell north, including the upstate/nc foothills, there could be a period of heavy sleet there on this run. (this is just a guess based on crummy maps so I say this cautiously)

Canadian shows a rather far inland track however, the canadian has a habit of being too far north (it was with the last one, then shifted hundreds of miles south). Gfs ends up being a bit warm But with the heavy precip, Not impossible to think dynamical cooling could even play a small role. Right now, my preliminary thinking is there is a decent chance of a pretty appreciable winter event/storm for the mountains of nc/ga with at least a period of wintery precip for the 85 corridor, including atlanta and athens to start before probably shifting to rain.

As others noted though, it's hard to have faith in any of the models at this range. So take everything with a grain of salt. Everything is subject to large changes.

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Hasn't the Canadian model been terrible this year? Most of the early storms it was way North and West of where they ended up. I believe that the DGEX and JMA have outperformed it. I know that in previous winters it was one of the better models. Will it be correct this time? I have no idea, but the pattern is different with no blocking so we'll see what happens.

Statistically speaking, as of late, the Euro and GFS have basically been on par with each other (with the Euro having a slight edge) with the CMC in a distant third (and the UKMet in fifth). The CMC does seem to be too far north and west oftentimes.

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This storm about to hit the midwest seems to have been modeled extremely consistently from 5 days out and closer by all the models. When a winter storm decides to effect our region the models dont have a clue what to do lol. Go figure.

Somewhere I made a similar post, they can get this one correct but not the ones that come our way. 4 or 5 days out people up north KNOW they're getting a blizzard, 4 or 5 days out here, and we don't even know if we're getting a storm or not, much less if it's going to be cold enough. rolleyes.gif

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Statistically speaking, as of late, the Euro and GFS have basically been on par with each other (with the Euro having a slight edge) with the CMC in a distant third (and the UKMet in fifth). The CMC does seem to be too far north and west oftentimes.

Euro has flipped and flopped about as much as the GFS this year. It is no better than any of them lately. Last week it showed ice for three straight days then snow. Then when it came closer it showed rain. Finally it was rain then snow then rain. I don't see where its any better.

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Euro has flipped and flopped about as much as the GFS this year. It is no better than any of them lately. Last week it showed ice for three straight days then snow. Then when it came closer it showed rain. Finally it was rain then snow then rain. I don't see where its any better.

The euro was a huge fail here last week.

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I'm glad to see you a little optimistic. If we can just get Cheez to bite a little it would be nice. He's probably still hung over from the beer festival.:devilsmiley: All I need is .4" to put me a double digits for the year.

Well to be honest, it's not about optimism but rather just calling it like I see it. Probably a half decent chance you get that half inch but we need to hope this is not quite as amplified as being shown to cut down on the waa. Best chances of something more significant is to the north of course and If I was in the mountains or north carolina foothills though, I would be paying close attention to this one. If I was in northwest alabama/far northwest Ga I would be too.

For the rest of us in north ga/upstate, A lot depends on how much low level cold air is able to cross the mountains. The nam is much colder than the gfs from 925mb on down. If we can get as much cold air as the nam suggests, after evaporational cooling, it could lead to a period of a decent amount of sleet after the mid levels warm. Areas in northwest alabama/northwest ga have the benefit of not having the mountains blocking the low level cold air, so mix precip seems likely there.

This is going to be a tough call though because of the marginal temp situations and having to rely on evaporational cooling to do the job. The gfs/nam have very low wetbulbs very far south in the mid levels yet the gfs doesn't show hardly a bit of cooling across these areas which seems unlikely and as I noted above it could be error. That probably would not be enough to keep us from going to all rain but it could delay the changeover a little while.

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When the Euro flops around, it is usually not good- but in those cases the other models are usually in the same boat. However, when the Euro is consistent and is supported by its ensembles, it will beat the GFS almost every time. Take the imminent blizzard in the MIdwest- at one point the GFS was absolutely horrific and the Euro has had some sort of storm in that area all along. The Euro is still a better model overall, but it can frequently suck as bad as other models beyond 5 days, just a bit less frequently.

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When the Euro flops around, it is usually not good- but in those cases the other models are usually in the same boat. However, when the Euro is consistent and is supported by its ensembles, it will beat the GFS almost every time. Take the imminent blizzard in the MIdwest- at one point the GFS was absolutely horrific and the Euro has had some sort of storm in that area all along. The Euro is still a better model overall, but it can frequently suck as bad as other models beyond 5 days, just a bit less frequently.

Good post. HPC noted the same thing about the euro ensemble mean beating everything. Operational run though has been pretty bad this year in the medium range imo. It's flip flopped around a lot..more so than usual.

speaking of Euro who is looking at it for us?

I'm watching it, nothing to really say yet. It's out to 78 hours.

Edit..out to 90 hours. A little wetter. 850 runs along the nc/sc border with 0.10 to 0.25 amounts in central/south ga.

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When the Euro flops around, it is usually not good- but in those cases the other models are usually in the same boat. However, when the Euro is consistent and is supported by its ensembles, it will beat the GFS almost every time. Take the imminent blizzard in the MIdwest- at one point the GFS was absolutely horrific and the Euro has had some sort of storm in that area all along. The Euro is still a better model overall, but it can frequently suck as bad as other models beyond 5 days, just a bit less frequently.

it sucked big time on last week's storm

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Well to be honest, it's not about optimism but rather just calling it like I see it. Probably a half decent chance you get that half inch but we need to hope this is not quite as amplified as being shown to cut down on the waa. Best chances of something more significant is to the north of course and If I was in the mountains or north carolina foothills though, I would be paying close attention to this one. If I was in northwest alabama/far northwest Ga I would be too.

For the rest of us in north ga/upstate, A lot depends on how much low level cold air is able to cross the mountains. The nam is much colder than the gfs from 925mb on down. If we can get as much cold air as the nam suggests, after evaporational cooling, it could lead to a period of a decent amount of sleet after the mid levels warm. Areas in northwest alabama/northwest ga have the benefit of not having the mountains blocking the low level cold air, so mix precip seems likely there.

This is going to be a tough call though because of the marginal temp situations and having to rely on evaporational cooling to do the job. The gfs/nam have very low wetbulbs very far south in the mid levels yet the gfs doesn't show hardly a bit of cooling across these areas which seems unlikely and as I noted above it could be error. That probably would not be enough to keep us from going to all rain but it could delay the changeover a little while.

Thanks for the analysis. I always like when you are around to break things down.

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Regarding the storm in question- I have basically little hope for anything IMBY- there is an outside shot of a few snowflakes on the front end- meh. As far as the areas to my NE, especially far western.NC and the mountains there is a shot at some frozen precip but a major event seems quite unlikely. As Lookout said, it is hard to rely on solely evap cooling, especially when the cold air in place is so marginal to begin with.

However, I do see a bit of a glimmer of hope in the Euro ensembles re the NAO- there is some indication of a downward trend towards the middle of Feb- I think we get rain events until then, but after that, perhaps one more shot at a decent or better system.

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