NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm usually one of the most optimistic posters on here. But I have to say after another 60+ dgree day and the pattern behaving the way it is chances are growing this winter may be remembered as the winter of 2 halves for the SE. Not throwing in the towel, but we really only have about 4 weeks in the Triad to go if we are gonna score another winter storm hit. Things can change on a dime in weather and I know weve had March and April snows. Just saying we cant afford 3-4 weeks in hopes of building, setting up a more favorable pattern. Heres to February throwing us a suprise and my hunch/fear of the winter of 2 halves being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah robert, the 18z gfs has soundings very close to something wintery in some parts. Could be a localized icing event around 1500 to 2000 feet. Assuming of course this system doesn't come inland more. The north trends alone this year would argue it will though. Shame. Date: 5 day AVN valid 18Z FRI 4 FEB 11 Station: KGSP Latitude: 34.88 Longitude: -82.22 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 179 SFC 980 344 1.9 0.7 91 1.3 1.4 57 7 276.7 277.4 275.6 287.9 4.09 2 950 592 -0.5 -1.0 97 0.5 -0.7 59 10 276.6 277.3 275.0 286.9 3.74 3 900 1023 -1.0 -1.4 97 0.4 -1.2 94 8 280.5 281.1 277.2 291.1 3.83 4 850 1482 1.2 0.7 96 0.5 1.0 172 10 287.4 288.2 281.7 300.9 4.73 5 800 1970 1.1 0.9 98 0.2 1.0 203 18 292.3 293.2 284.2 307.1 5.10 6 750 2489 0.2 -0.1 98 0.3 0.0 209 26 296.8 297.7 285.9 311.7 5.06 7 700 3041 -2.0 -2.6 96 0.6 -2.3 210 27 300.3 301.1 286.6 313.8 4.50 8 650 3627 -5.4 -6.0 95 0.6 -5.7 212 27 302.9 303.6 286.9 314.4 3.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm still no too particularly excited about the long range threat. Just like this past system, the Feb 5th-6th threat has a significant chance to cut north of most folks in SC/NC. With a strongly +NAO, you can forget about whatever cold air we have in place staying if this system decides to ramp up at all. What we want to hope for is a weaker reflection at 500mb that allows a weak, but perhaps juicy surface low that rides up the coast. If the 500mb trough gets pretty negatively tilted like the 12z Euro suggests, all the WAA will flood in and nobody, not even the mountains, will be able to to get any wintry precipitation. The good news is that in the long range, there are hints of blocking starting to redevelop over Greenland, which might help us have a more wintry second half of February. Phil, Where are the hints? I'm looking for them and would appreciate guidance. Phil in Gainesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Phil, Where are the hints? I'm looking for them and would appreciate guidance. Phil in Gainesville Well it looks like the second low (the one we have been talking about in regards to wintry precipitation) could end up being the low that restarts the blocking regime. In the long range, it ramps up in the Atlantic ocean, thus pumping up the Ridge near Greenland towards the end of the model run. Now if this can be persistent, than we will be talking, but that remains to be seen out beyond the middle of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Man I wish we had some cold air for this storm. The 0z gfs is showing close to 24 hours of rainfall in the RDU area w/ most of that heavy rainfall. If we had some cold air this would be a major snowstorm. Oh well, if only! The rain will be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Man I wish we had some cold air for this storm. The 0z gfs is showing close to 24 hours of rainfall in the RDU area w/ most of that heavy rainfall. If we had some cold air this would be a major snowstorm. Oh well, if only! The rain will be nice though. it's a nice hit just north of me and robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's a nice hit just north of me and robert. This makes the 3rd model run in a row that the GFS shows the thermal profile supportive enough for snow here in the foothills...eventually the GFS has got to get one of these storms right...just sayin' Atmospheric Sounding for KMRN (108 hours) 120 hours... 132 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's a nice hit just north of me and robert. It sure is...according to the 0z gfs it wouldn't take much of a jog south w/ the cold to get y'all in the game. That's of course if the gfs is correct. The euro has looked warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0UTC GFS Any thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's a nice hit just north of me and robert. Like I said above though, the profile is cold enough that I think there would be a mix over a fairly large area with a full changeover possible if the precip was heavy enough. This is especially true along and north of i-85. I mean gainesville to gsp soundings are as close to an all snow sounding without actually being one. At the least it would be a mix to start for most areas with the column solidly below freezing as far as wetbulbs go. As robert said though, could go further inland..which would suck because it would be really fun to see what actual precip type would fall with a sounding that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's a nice hit just north of me and robert. Like I said above though, the profile is cold enough that I think there would be a mix over a fairly large area with a full changeover possible if the precip was heavy enough. This is especially true along and north of i-85. I mean gainesville to gsp soundings are as close to an all snow sounding without actually being one. At the least it would be a mix to start for most areas with the column solidly below freezing as far as wetbulbs go. As robert said though, could go further inland..which would suck because it would be really fun to see what actual precip type would fall with a sounding that close. I'm surprised the GFS still has this as a coastal. Its a close call from this point here and much of interior NC, and further west of the Apps its colder, being lower heights and closer to the Upper low, but less precip on the western side of the Apps, although northern Ala, and eastern Tn could get clipped if this run is right. However I wouldn't be surprised to see this begin a little earlier and further west than the GFS is showing. Its temp profiles looked around the same as the previous couple runs...so its close enough to watch in N. Ga and part of the Carolinas esp. foothills and mtns where the cold and precip may be maximized. And what GFS run wouldn't be complete without the day 7+ arctic outbreak and another southeast snowstorm, this one has that. Wetbub temps. Most of the cold is on the western side of the Apps. If the Wed. storm could pull colder air in with much lower dewpoints I think our chances would be higher, but the GFS and ECMWF are adamant in keeping the heart of the cold west and north of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks pretty close for GSO (but no cigar) at the moment. Given that this is set to occur on the weekend, make no mistake that I'll be coming home to GSO if this thing looks like it will hit GSO better than RDU. That said, I'm not too confident that we're going to see anything. There just doesn't seem to be much cold air to work with, even with a coastal like the GFS shows. GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wish I could find a picture of Cousin Eddie from Christmas Vacation throwing the towel into the pool from the diving board, but I can't. Couldn't find exactly that one but this pretty much demonstrates the flip flopping of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Very close here for the weekend, surprised GSP has the mention of snow already in their forecast. That's not typical of them this far out with a borderline situation. Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Same for FFC. According to them, it should changeover to all snow before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Checking the euro and gfs ensemble, both keep Triad 850's below freezing for late week event. 24 hr increments on euro, but thats and encouraging sign. Just a matter of getting the storm to wined up off the SE coast. yesterday we hit upper 60's. Today the CAD is kicking and will keep us locked in at current temps. Right at a 30 degree drop over 24 hours for afternoon highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not trying to wish cast but, looking at the GFS this morning I think we have a real chance of ice over a large area this weekend. Dew points / web bulbs will be critical as the precip starts. Looks like RDU dew points drop into the upper teens by late Thursday. After that they go up to the upper 20s as the precip comes in, but these rises may not be calculated right (typical with CADs) by the models. 0z GFS (question is how cold / dry is the air source?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Same for FFC. According to them, it should changeover to all snow before it ends. Taking the GFS at face value places from Gainesville GA north would likely be snow per the soundings. 850's would wetbulb below zero to start but never rise above around 0.5 and it stays that temp down to below 950mb. Something to watch for sure for the far northern sections of GA. The 0z Euro came is colder than the 12z but not cold enough for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Couldn't find exactly that one but this pretty much demonstrates the flip flopping of the models. Awesome! Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Taking the GFS at face value places from Gainesville GA north would likely be snow per the soundings. 850's would wetbulb below zero to start but never rise above around 0.5 and it stays that temp down to below 950mb. Something to watch for sure for the far northern sections of GA. The 0z Euro came is colder than the 12z but not cold enough for snow here. Same here Dawson. GFS is below freezing from 925 and up. The Euro has a warm nose from 875 to 800. Maybe a lot of sleet for my area. To early to call but has my interest. The cmc is all snow for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Taking the GFS at face value places from Gainesville GA north would likely be snow per the soundings. 850's would wetbulb below zero to start but never rise above around 0.5 and it stays that temp down to below 950mb. Something to watch for sure for the far northern sections of GA. The 0z Euro came is colder than the 12z but not cold enough for snow here. Where is the cold source coming from? I didn't think I saw a high to the north anywhere. Are we relying on dynamics with this storm? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Its still possible that on the northwest side of the overrunning Fri/early Sat there could be some snow. To start there is weak high pressure to the north, but the parent high slides out to sea, but theres not a lot of warming at 850 on the extreme nw side, so roughly w. NC/n. NC stretching back to the southwest it may be just cold enough, but no model is putting much precip west of the Apps, atleast not Euro and GFS. Two main areas with the greatest chance would be with the ULL itself as it weakens from Tex/Ark, La and then again around the mtns of Ga/NC/Tn. The Euro is a little later than GFS in bringing in moisture and lighter as well. Both models have the arctic outbreak later on, with additional chances of winter weather, so I think Winter isn't dead here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Robert, If you could move that dashed line about 50 miles further south in Georgia we would appreciate it. Thanks. The 06z GFS has me at 35 with 1C 850s during the heaviest rain on Saturday. I know it likely won't verify but its so close. Working outside on my shed would be much more enjoyable in snow rather than cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Robert, If you could move that dashed line about 50 miles further south in Georgia we would appreciate it. Thanks. The 06z GFS has me at 35 with 1C 850s during the heaviest rain on Saturday. I know it likely won't verify but its so close. Working outside on my shed would be much more enjoyable in snow rather than cold rain. Wish I could. All the models have this tight gradient for the cold air , when it hits the Apps Wed Night and Thursday. I've never seen such a tight one. Tri Cities is -13 at 850 and GSP is +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wish I could. All the models have this tight gradient for the cold air , when it hits the Apps Wed Night and Thursday. I've never seen such a tight one. Tri Cities is -13 at 850 and GSP is +4. I've been saying the same thing to myself. It is impressive. fwiw the 12z nam strongly implies a snow threat here, at least to start. the entire column has wetbulbs way below freezing. Even at the surface, wetbulbs are right at 32 with virga overhead and actual significant precip knocking on the door. This is starting to raise my interest for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 True arctic air will always struggle to make it east of the apps when it comes from the direction it is forecasted to. This is why there is such a tight gradient. Unfortunately by the time the high is oriented better to drain the cold air east it will have already modified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've been saying the same thing to myself. It is impressive. fwiw the 12z nam strongly implies a snow threat here, at least to start. the entire column has wetbulbs way below freezing. Even at the surface, wetbulbs are right at 32 with virga overhead and actual significant precip knocking on the door. This is starting to raise my interest for sure. According to the NAM it looks like it might be perfect timing for you guys with the marginal temp profile. Just the fact it's coming in at night could help out a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've been saying the same thing to myself. It is impressive. fwiw the 12z nam strongly implies a snow threat here, at least to start. the entire column has wetbulbs way below freezing. Even at the surface, wetbulbs are right at 32 with virga overhead and actual significant precip knocking on the door. This is starting to raise my interest for sure. I still think its underestimating the temps. Models always do this at this range wwith true arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where is the cold source coming from? I didn't think I saw a high to the north anywhere. Are we relying on dynamics with this storm? TIA Posting from my droid but foothills laid it out nicely below your post to me. Pretty much left over cold air so its a marginal situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 According to the NAM it looks like it might be perfect timing for you guys with the marginal temp profile. Just the fact it's coming in at night could help out a ton. Indeed. I'm not confident to say where or if it will yet but if it this system materializes as the nam/gfs have it, it's possible this could be a significant snow event for some parts of north ga/upstate, and nc. I don't have much doubt the gfs might be underestimating the evaporational cooling potential in the mid levels. The models often times don't see it. If you look at 850mb dewpoints, there is very dry air almost to south ga so cooling via evaporation will will rather widespread. I still think its underestimating the temps. Models always do this at this range wwith true arctic air Sometimes it's often overused that the models underestimate arctic air. However, in this case they might be. The airmass will be coming off a significant snowpack across the plains due to that blizzard. The nam looks colder in the boundary layer and it might be picking up on that fact. It shows some pretty cold air at 925mb to 975mb thursday morning..as low as -6c here. This is sort of unusual though in these situations. Normally it's the surface/boundary layer cold air that has a problem getting over the mountains. But in this case it makes it. As for the mid levels, significant dry air will be in place over a large area. So despite the initially above 0 temps, if there is significant precip, those temps will drop. We'll see. The euro/canadian don't agree with the gfs/nam here so we'll see what the 12z runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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