Feb 5th and 6th Storm

[BIG FROSTY]

Pretty big bust on the Euro froma few days ago. It had -14 to -16 getting in here after this storm, yet this run has the coldest temp at 850 at +1. Thats a rather large difference. The cold air never makes it to the Carolinas.

Thing is next run it may bring cold air back ? King Euro

[Cold Rain]

Pretty big bust on the Euro froma few days ago. It had -14 to -16 getting in here after this storm, yet this run has the coldest temp at 850 at +1. Thats a rather large difference. The cold air never makes it to the Carolinas.

Euro has done that all season. I'm waiting for things to bust substantially on the warm side, but that doesn't seem to happen very much.

[POWERSTROKE]

Thing is next run it may bring cold air back ? King Euro

your right can't believe what it says anymore. It is no more right than any others

[GaWx]

Pretty big bust on the Euro froma few days ago. It had -14 to -16 getting in here after this storm, yet this run has the coldest temp at 850 at +1. Thats a rather large difference. The cold air never makes it to the Carolinas.

Robert,

I think you're being kind in saying "pretty big bust". I'm calling it a horrible bust as it had a record tieing cold 850 of -21C at KATL and nearly 48 hours of -10C or colder on a run from only five days ago! Even a run from just three days ago gave KATL an 850 of a still quite cold -12C. That's very disappointing for what I feel is the "King" of all models. Keep in mind that it was much colder than the model consensus at the time.

Today's 12Z Euro's coldest at 850 for KATL for late this week, the period for which it was supposed to be so cold, is only down to a fairly mild +4C. So, that is only 25C or 45 F warmer than the run from five days back and 16C or 29 F warmer than the run from three days back! This all tells me that any very cold Euro runs anytime soon that are quite a bit colder than the model consensus will be taken with a huge grain of salt.

The fact that the entire run of today's 12Z Euro never gets colder than +1 C at KATL does not bode well for cold returning in a big way betwen now and 2/9.

[Weather Czar]

You guys can have your euro and rain. I'm riding the hot jma and big dog western nc and e tenn snow storm next weekend.

[superjames1992]

your right can't believe what it says anymore. It is no more right than any others

Statistically speaking, lately the Euro and GFS are basically on par at this range in verifying at the surface and at 500 mb. Both the GFS and Euro have substantial leads on the third-place model, the GGEM.

[Cheeznado]

You guys can have your euro and rain. I'm riding the hot jma and big dog western nc and e tenn snow storm next weekend.

Really? this is the 12Z JMA for Saturday:

[Weather Czar]

Cheez, it delays the storm and brings it in at hours 168 thru 192. I'm sure its wrong but it did handle the early week fail really well from a week out.

[Cheeznado]

Cheez, it delays the storm and brings it in at hours 168 thru 192. I'm sure its wrong but it did handle the early week fail really well from a week out.

Where do you get the JMA beyond 144 hours?

[superjames1992]

I'm jealous of those in the Midwest right now.

[Weather Czar]

Where do you get the JMA beyond 144 hours?

Accupro, they also have skew t for the euro every 6 hours.

[Cheeznado]

The models are having a tough time deciding what do do with the second closed low that digs down into the SW- when/how this ejects eventually is a total crapshoot right now. I am tending to lean against any significant winter precip in the SE simply because a lot of things would have to come together perfectly and the odds are against that IMO. Plenty of time to watch it but for now I am going to assume that the SE will get rain or nothing.

[Weather Czar]

The models are having a tough time deciding what do do with the second closed low that digs down into the SW- when/how this ejects eventually is a total crapshoot right now. I am tending to lean against any significant winter precip in the SE simply because a lot of things would have to come together perfectly and the odds are against that IMO. Plenty of time to watch it but for now I am going to assume that the SE will get rain or nothing.

I agree mostly. But I think this one has a much better chance of taking a more southern route. Time will tell

[weatherman566]

Very interesting discussion from NWS at Birmingham, AL:

THE LAST SYSTEM OF THE WEEK WILL BE A SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY THAT

WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF

THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BE A LOWER LATITUDE SYSTEM AND WILL SPIN UP

A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD

THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THE PREFERRED TRACK FOR WINTRY

PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE

MODELS BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS THE SAME. IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN

PLACE FROM THE MID WEEK ARCTIC HIGH THEN PARTS OF THE REGION COULD

BE IN FOR ANOTHER WINTER EVENT OF SOME SIGNIFICANCE. AS IT STANDS

NOW...CENTRAL ALABAMA WOULD BE TOO WARM. HOWEVER...I WONDER IF THE

MODELS ARE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EXTREME SNOW PACK THAT IS SURE TO BE

IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ITS

POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN AND SNOW

WORDING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TOO EARLY FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS

AT THIS POINT.

[jrips27]

Very interesting discussion from NWS at Birmingham, AL:

THE LAST SYSTEM OF THE WEEK WILL BE A SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY THAT

WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF

THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BE A LOWER LATITUDE SYSTEM AND WILL SPIN UP

A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD

THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THE PREFERRED TRACK FOR WINTRY

PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE

MODELS BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS THE SAME. IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN

PLACE FROM THE MID WEEK ARCTIC HIGH THEN PARTS OF THE REGION COULD

BE IN FOR ANOTHER WINTER EVENT OF SOME SIGNIFICANCE. AS IT STANDS

NOW...CENTRAL ALABAMA WOULD BE TOO WARM. HOWEVER...I WONDER IF THE

MODELS ARE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EXTREME SNOW PACK THAT IS SURE TO BE

IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ITS

POTENTIAL AFFECTS ON THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN AND SNOW

WORDING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TOO EARLY FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS

AT THIS POINT.

That is an interesting point about snowcover. Hadn't really thought about it. That could make some fairly significant changes as far as temps go.

[jrips27]

I assume your talking about the low pressure system? I think everyone is still in the game its just a question on temps

[Cold Rain]

Folks, not trying to cold rain on anyone's hopes, but it doesn't matter how far south a system tracks or how much snow cover there is to the north or how deep it is or how much cold air is up in Canada. If there is no active transporter from a cold air source into the region, nothing else matters, unless it is already very cold. Such a mechanism would be a bombing storm to your south or southeast, a strong/bombing/ wrapped up system pulling up the coast, or most effective and everybody's favorite, a high pressure system to the north over the New England area or one farther west near the Lakes or somewhere in that area. Without one of those mechanisms present, 9 times out of 10, you can forget about a significant and widespread winter storm around here.

Now look at the various models for next weekend and see if any of those things are present (other than a storm tracking south or deep snow cover or whatever). See if there is a mechanism to deliver fresh cold air to the area. If you can't find it, then I wouldn't hold out hope.

You could argue that the models are underestimating the strength of the Arctic front or the magnitude of the cold air and it's ability to crash through the region. That's fine, but even if that's true and the front blasts through, your storm better go ahead and develop and not wait two or three days. Otherwise, you'll be dealing with stale cold air. No good.

You could argue that the models are just not showing a cold air transportation mechanism yet. That's fine, but there's pretty good agreement on such a feature not being present...so they'd better start showing it soon. And I don't mean a 1052 high entering Montana driving straight down into Denver and then into Texas. Not going to get the job done, especially with all the disruptive shortwaves in the flow. Looking at the upper air progs of the various modeling, I'm not optimistic that a good cold air transporter is going to appear in future runs.

I hope we have something good to track soon, but this one is, as Cheez said, rain or nothing.

[jrips27]

Great post Cold Rain! Its sad we don't have any high to bring it down. Could have been a nice storm.

[Cold Rain]

Great post Cold Rain! Its sad we don't have any high to bring it down. Could have been a nice storm.

Thanks! I just hope the storm actually does come together. We could use the rain.

[Carvers Gap]

Until that cold air mass in eastern Canada proves to me it is indeed going to sag southward...I'm not buying any winter storm scenarios for TN. The GFS shows storms in a suppressed pattern at medium range only to bring them far northward as the event approaches. The Euro is doing this to some extent as well. We stole a month(January) from this pattern that we shouldn't have had - and ought to be thankful for it. Looks like we are getting ready to pay the piper. Maybe we(someone in the southeast) can thread the needle.

[jrips27]

Thanks! I just hope the storm actually does come together. We could use the rain.

Yall in NC and SC need it worse than us in N GA

[Cold Rain]

Until that cold air mass in eastern Canada proves to me it is indeed going to sag southward...I'm not buying any winter storm scenarios for TN. The GFS shows storms in a suppressed pattern at medium range only to bring them far northward as the event approaches. The Euro is doing this to some extent as well. We stole a month(January) from this pattern that we shouldn't have had - and ought to be thankful for it. Looks like we are getting ready to pay the piper. Maybe we(someone in the southeast) can thread the needle.

Yeah, with that big PV up in Canada, the S/Ws rotate around it, dropping into the western states, zipping across the northern tier, and shoving on northeast out into the Atlantic or SE Canada and north from there. Any confluence behind them that would sustain/build surface HP races along and so you get highs zipping on off the coast. If we had blocking, we'd have a better shot of confluence being maintained longer and we'd likely end up with highs more favorably located and located there longer. Until then, we'll likely see things end up farther north than modeled.

Normally, I'd still be more optimistic about the whole perfect timing thing, but this year, there's so many shortwaves in the flow, and it seems like behind every quickly-moving high, there's a CAA-disrupting low, generated by another shortwave. So even the perfect timing thing is a longer shot than normal this year, IMO.

[nchighcountrywx]

Nothing more to add. Cold rain covered the synoptics very well.

[Weather Czar]

Folks, not trying to cold rain on anyone's hopes, but it doesn't matter how far south a system tracks or how much snow cover there is to the north or how deep it is or how much cold air is up in Canada. If there is no active transporter from a cold air source into the region, nothing else matters, unless it is already very cold. Such a mechanism would be a bombing storm to your south or southeast, a strong/bombing/ wrapped up system pulling up the coast, or most effective and everybody's favorite, a high pressure system to the north over the New England area or one farther west near the Lakes or somewhere in that area. Without one of those mechanisms present, 9 times out of 10, you can forget about a significant and widespread winter storm around here.

Now look at the various models for next weekend and see if any of those things are present (other than a storm tracking south or deep snow cover or whatever). See if there is a mechanism to deliver fresh cold air to the area. If you can't find it, then I wouldn't hold out hope.

You could argue that the models are underestimating the strength of the Arctic front or the magnitude of the cold air and it's ability to crash through the region. That's fine, but even if that's true and the front blasts through, your storm better go ahead and develop and not wait two or three days. Otherwise, you'll be dealing with stale cold air. No good.

You could argue that the models are just not showing a cold air transportation mechanism yet. That's fine, but there's pretty good agreement on such a feature not being present...so they'd better start showing it soon. And I don't mean a 1052 high entering Montana driving straight down into Denver and then into Texas. Not going to get the job done, especially with all the disruptive shortwaves in the flow. Looking at the upper air progs of the various modeling, I'm not optimistic that a good cold air transporter is going to appear in future runs.

I hope we have something good to track soon, but this one is, as Cheez said, rain or nothing.

A low "bombing" in eastern Canada will do the trick! But you are right, The arctic air digging for oil into Mexico really does us no good.

[phil882]

I'm still no too particularly excited about the long range threat. Just like this past system, the Feb 5th-6th threat has a significant chance to cut north of most folks in SC/NC. With a strongly +NAO, you can forget about whatever cold air we have in place staying if this system decides to ramp up at all. What we want to hope for is a weaker reflection at 500mb that allows a weak, but perhaps juicy surface low that rides up the coast. If the 500mb trough gets pretty negatively tilted like the 12z Euro suggests, all the WAA will flood in and nobody, not even the mountains, will be able to to get any wintry precipitation.

The good news is that in the long range, there are hints of blocking starting to redevelop over Greenland, which might help us have a more wintry second half of February.

[jrips27]

I'm still no too particularly excited about the long range threat. Just like this past system, the Feb 5th-6th threat has a significant chance to cut north of most folks in SC/NC. With a strongly +NAO, you can forget about whatever cold air we have in place staying if this system decides to ramp up at all. What we want to hope for is a weaker reflection at 500mb that allows a weak, but perhaps juicy surface low that rides up the coast. If the 500mb trough gets pretty negatively tilted like the 12z Euro suggests, all the WAA will flood in and nobody, not even the mountains, will be able to to get any wintry precipitation.

The good news is that in the long range, there are hints of blocking starting to redevelop over Greenland, which might help us have a more wintry second half of February.

Thats good news if the blocking is starting to redevelop!

[Cold Rain]

A low "bombing" in eastern Canada will do the trick! But you are right, The arctic air digging for oil into Mexico really does us no good.

Digging for oil in Mexico! That's funny right there.

[FoothillsNC]

I'm still no too particularly excited about the long range threat. Just like this past system, the Feb 5th-6th threat has a significant chance to cut north of most folks in SC/NC. With a strongly +NAO, you can forget about whatever cold air we have in place staying if this system decides to ramp up at all. What we want to hope for is a weaker reflection at 500mb that allows a weak, but perhaps juicy surface low that rides up the coast. If the 500mb trough gets pretty negatively tilted like the 12z Euro suggests, all the WAA will flood in and nobody, not even the mountains, will be able to to get any wintry precipitation.

The good news is that in the long range, there are hints of blocking starting to redevelop over Greenland, which might help us have a more wintry second half of February.

I agree. The models are really starting to play up this next event (next Fri-Sat), after a few days of just nothing or sliding south and east. Most likely each run will come in warmer and wetter, lets hope we don't actually miss this too far to the west. Right now the Carolinas and Ga are progged to be to the left of the track, but most likely it will be much further west and inland, still should get some good rains from it. If there was good high pressure to the north, we'd be looking at a good Winter storm, but as luck has it, the cold never makes good enroads here, however areas west of the Apps still have to monitor it, and where the cold 5H low tracks. The 18z still has a chance at some wintery precip in NC, but I give very little chance of it being as cold as the GFS is saying.

[Cold Rain]

I'm still no too particularly excited about the long range threat. Just like this past system, the Feb 5th-6th threat has a significant chance to cut north of most folks in SC/NC. With a strongly +NAO, you can forget about whatever cold air we have in place staying if this system decides to ramp up at all. What we want to hope for is a weaker reflection at 500mb that allows a weak, but perhaps juicy surface low that rides up the coast. If the 500mb trough gets pretty negatively tilted like the 12z Euro suggests, all the WAA will flood in and nobody, not even the mountains, will be able to to get any wintry precipitation.

The good news is that in the long range, there are hints of blocking starting to redevelop over Greenland, which might help us have a more wintry second half of February.

Good thoughts. Even with a flat wave and favorable track, it's gonna be a long shot outside the mountains, IMO. At this point, I'm really hoping for some good rain. I hope it doesn't fizzle out as we close in.

I hope you're right about blocking coming back. I hate to give up the whole month of Feb. Blocking persisting into March can and probably will lead to a very interesting month!

[IWC]

I'm jealous of those in the Midwest right now.

You and me both, I was looking at their numbers. They are insane !!!!