Feb 5th and 6th Storm

[DAWGNKITTEN]

I'm sitting at 2.10" so far....still coming down heavy, but looks like only for another hour or so. DO NOT want anymore rain, but I know we'll get it this weekend...

[chapelhillwx]

I agree. I hardly ever watch TWC anymore, thanks to this wonderful forum and the internet in general. But I've had it on all night and just got a big kick out of Cantore reacting to lightning and thundersnow in Chicago. He cracks me up. I must have rewound it and watched it 5 times on the DVR. Did anyone else see that?

Any links? Have been dying to see that. He freaks out during thundersnow!

[BullCityWx]

I sure do miss that Greenland block.

[FoothillsNC]

I sure do miss that Greenland block.

I do too, but now we have good shots at precip events actually getting into NC. The Friday and Saturday system looks like the wettest in months around here, probably the wettest overall since one of the Winter rains from last year. After that, the flow is progressive and we get another brief warmup, and preffrontal rains, followed by a sharp cool down. Then that cold air slides out quickly and another pre-frontal rain, followed by another quick cold shot. Thats the kind of pattern it looks like here, so its a good one for occasional precip, just not the icy/snowy kind. Without the NAO, we need to get a split flow to have a good chance at more snow or ice, or just rely on perfect timing , which is extremely hard to get lucky on. Just looked at the GFS and it has a temp. split flow in the Pacific, which allows one system to come at us around day 10 or beyond, but we'll see.

[BraseltonGAWX]

Any links? Have been dying to see that. He freaks out during thundersnow!

Nah, I was just watching on TV. I am sure someone will upload it to YouTube or something. They actually keep replaying it on TWC. He has had 2 episodes now and his reaction both times was hysterical! "Holy Smokes! Unbelievable! Oh my goodness!"

[dsaur]

I sure do miss that Greenland block.

Oh, man, me too! I'm starting to begrudge lost days of winter. Summer goes on and on, and on..but winter is so fleeting..hate losing a minute of it, especially to a bad pattern. Of course, it has only been two days and 3 nights it has been warm...but who's counting It's winter, dang it. I had a fire this afternoon to warm it up, and now it is 57 outside, and too hot it here. Hate to have to ride the coaster until the blocking sets up again. T

[griteater]

The Friday and Saturday system looks like the wettest in months around here, probably the wettest overall since one of the Winter rains from last year.

Yeah, this Friday storm looks like a good ole-fashioned gulf low soaker. The 700mb 90%+ RH field is rather large.

[Buckethead]

Any links? Have been dying to see that. He freaks out during thundersnow!

[Isopycnic]

BOOM... "Oh Jesus, Listen to that! Son of a >>>!"

[BIG FROSTY]

NWS still has a mix in forecast for my area.

Although I fully expect it to be removed before start time!

FRIDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW

AND SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN

THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...

THEN RAIN WITH SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...RAIN WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN

LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER

20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

[FoothillsNC]

The 00zECMWF says we're going to need a new thread on the mid February Tex, La, Ala, Ga, Fl, and Carolinas snowstorm. Yes I said Florida. It has very cold air entrenched and a strong s/w diving down the Rockies to west Texas around 192 hours and taps a lot of gulf moisture and throws it in our -16 to -4 degree air. A brutal cold airmass arrives next week and stays around long enough to be used with a couple chances of Polar s/w that take a far southern dive. It features a large, deep bowl shape trough over the Continent as a result of the big western PNA ridging. Actually is a close call early next week along the arctic front as well, with some moisture and "nearly cold enough" air already in place, esp. in Tenn/Ala/Ark. If nothing else, the cold looks to materialize next week, but will it just be cold and dry , per usual, or will we have some energy far enough south to generate a storm? First thing we need is for the Euro to verify on the cold, as it's not done a stellar job lately.

[FallsLake]

The 00zECMWF says we're going to need a new thread on the mid February Tex, La, Ala, Ga, Fl, and Carolinas snowstorm. Yes I said Florida. It has very cold air entrenched and a strong s/w diving down the Rockies to west Texas around 192 hours and taps a lot of gulf moisture and throws it in our -16 to -4 degree air. A brutal cold airmass arrives next week and stays around long enough to be used with a couple chances of Polar s/w that take a far southern dive. It features a large, deep bowl shape trough over the Continent as a result of the big western PNA ridging. Actually is a close call early next week along the arctic front as well, with some moisture and "nearly cold enough" air already in place, esp. in Tenn/Ala/Ark. If nothing else, the cold looks to materialize next week, but will it just be cold and dry , per usual, or will we have some energy far enough south to generate a storm? First thing we need is for the Euro to verify on the cold, as it's not done a stellar job lately.

Robert. Does the 6z GFS have any merit? Actually the whole run would be great (three or so shots of winter events), but it almost depresses me because I'm now expecting the next runs to show warm / dry scenarios.

[NCSNOW]

Drove to work this morning and crossed the eroding wedge. 59 in the driveway, got 15 miles up the road and temps where in the 40's with fog. Anyway my rain gauge is put up for the winter, but I can tell you the rain at the house was probably a tenth maybe 2 tenths at best. Still dry under some big leylands. NEVER, and I mean NEVER trust the modeled qpf on any storm tracking up west of the apps. I can't count the times we get the Carolina split up here. I'm thinking the decaying wedge boundries along and at times downslope account for this.

I'm having snow withdrawls. Been several weeks since the last flakes flew and seeing the clips from out in the mid west has me craving for one more hit. Its a race against time now and Im hoping next week produces. Sun angles and ground temps are going to start to rev up fast.

[strongwxnc]

very cool..

Sounds like a reaction most of us would have!!!

[FoothillsNC]

Robert. Does the 6z GFS have any merit? Actually the whole run would be great (three or so shots of winter events), but it almost depresses me because I'm now expecting the next runs to show warm / dry scenarios.

it looked similar to the Euro. I wouldn't trust any of them explicitly right now. The trends matter. There could be several threats, or one, or none really. There should be a large trough carving out with cold air spreading out and dropping south after we get past this Fri/Sat. storm, then we can start to hone in on individual shortwaves. Any s/w can amplify or get sheared, just depends on subtle nuances to the flow which can't be seen yet. The models sometimes overdevelop these.

[FoothillsNC]

12z NAm has 2.5" or more in central Ga from the next storm. It doesn't lift the heavy rain into NC much, but focuses on SC and GA and eastern Alabama. Looks a little too light further north into NC but we'll see what the other models have. Either way, all have been pointing to Ga and SC for a big rain event.

[kanc2001]

Nah, I was just watching on TV. I am sure someone will upload it to YouTube or something. They actually keep replaying it on TWC. He has had 2 episodes now and his reaction both times was hysterical! "Holy Smokes! Unbelievable! Oh my goodness!"

his best quote was "this never gets old, folks!"

[NEGa]

looking forward to more rain this weekend - ended up with about 1.5". the models are pretty blah for the weekend here (ie close but no cigar) but have noticed on some of the nws graphics a little ice/mix in parts of ne ga and the western carolinas and kirk mellish mentioned maybe close to some ice so of course now i am back to watching another pointless, cold rain storm

it will be interesting now that the big storm is moving out if the models make any subtle changes for the weekend event

[Lookout]

12z NAm has 2.5" or more in central Ga from the next storm. It doesn't lift the heavy rain into NC much, but focuses on SC and GA and eastern Alabama. Looks a little too light further north into NC but we'll see what the other models have. Either way, all have been pointing to Ga and SC for a big rain event.

Yeah this looks like a big soaker for us. I'm still expecting precip to possibly start as a mix here and in most places. The timing is critical as the sooner it starts the more likely we get sleet/snow here. Despite the warm 850s, there is a cold boundary layer and wetbulbs are subfreezing from the surface on up to the mid levels initially. The question is two fold, when does the precip start and does the warm air come with it or is the precip out ahead of it.

Nam/gfs keep hinting at precip starting as soon as the predawn hours here and if so, it certainly should be cold enough for at least sleet due to the warm mid levels. Nam is suggesting a finger of precipitation, as seen below, and it's very possible this could be mostly mixed precip. If this could hold on for a while in one spot and long enough to cool the mid levels before the waa kicks in, it could change to snow. This is especially true if the models are underestimating precip. The other day they sure did. Models showed very little precip over south ga and minimal amounts here (for several runs only a few hundreths) but we ended up with 0.25 or so in many areas and in south ga, probably over a half inch in spots. The nam did very poorly indeed and underestimated amounts a hell of a lot and was way too slow until a run or two before it started. Indeed the nam is trending a bit faster with precip onset on the 12z run.

Not saying this will be the case this time but it's possible. If so, we could have several hours of mixed precip or even all snow in localized areas where the precip could wetbulb the column down. (there has been a run or two of the nam that has showed very localized pockets where 850s do drop to freezing or just below before quickly warming up again) Based on the gfs/nam soundings (and depending on surface temps), mixed precip could be possible all day tomorrow. It should be light but if someone could get lucky and have a changeover, it could be a nice sight before we go over to rain.

However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it could take a while to reach the surface and probably making any precip that does reach the ground lite. So I'm not expecting any accumulations with any of this in the lower elevations at least and the warm mid levels are a concern (keeping it sleet or even mixed with rain) but should be pretty to look at maybe if someone is lucky.

Nam has been holding on to cold 950mb to 925mb temps along the eastern slopes of the appalachians from ga into the carolinas, so I expect areas of 2000 to 3000 feet, possibly as low as 1500 feet, from north ga into nc to possibly pick up some significant freezing rain if heavier amounts arrive sooner than advertised before it changes over. Could even be some light freezing rain in the foothills of nc per gfs before it goes to rain pretty quickly.

Nothing major it would seem and it's not a given but there is a chance. Could be a nice little snow event for parts of LA/MS it would seem as well.

Then we get flooded lol

[dsaur]

12z NAm has 2.5" or more in central Ga from the next storm. It doesn't lift the heavy rain into NC much, but focuses on SC and GA and eastern Alabama. Looks a little too light further north into NC but we'll see what the other models have. Either way, all have been pointing to Ga and SC for a big rain event.

Now that's a pattern shift I like to see. Get the focus of heaviest precip. down here, where it belongs I'm tired of just getting the dregs. Glad to see you finally got some decent rain at your house! Tony

[NEGa]

Yeah this looks like a big soaker for us. I'm still expecting precip to possibly start as a mix here and in most places. The timing is critical as the sooner it starts the more likely we get sleet/snow here. Despite the warm 850s, there is a cold boundary layer and wetbulbs are subfreezing from the surface on up to the mid levels initially. The question is two fold, when does the precip start and does the warm air come with it or is the precip out ahead of it.

Nam/gfs keep hinting at precip starting as soon as the predawn hours here and if so, it certainly should be cold enough for at least sleet due to the warm mid levels. Nam is suggesting a finger of precipitation, as seen below, and it's very possible this could be mostly mixed precip. If this could hold on for a while in one spot and long enough to cool the mid levels before the waa kicks in, it could change to snow. This is especially true if the models are underestimating precip. The other day they sure did. Models showed very little precip over south ga and minimal amounts here (for several runs only a few hundreths) but we ended up with 0.25 or so in many areas and in south ga, probably over a half inch in spots. The nam did very poorly indeed and underestimated amounts a hell of a lot and was way too slow until a run or two before it started. Indeed the nam is trending a bit faster with precip onset on the 12z run.

Not saying this will be the case this time but it's possible. If so, we could have several hours of mixed precip or even all snow in localized areas where the precip could wetbulb the column down. (there has been a run or two of the nam that has showed very localized pockets where 850s do drop to freezing or just below before quickly warming up again) Based on the gfs/nam soundings (and depending on surface temps), mixed precip could be possible all day tomorrow. It should be light but if someone could get lucky and have a changeover, it could be a nice sight before we go over to rain.

However, there is a lot of dry air to overcome and it could take a while to reach the surface and probably making any precip that does reach the ground lite. So I'm not expecting any accumulations with any of this in the lower elevations at least and the warm mid levels are a concern (keeping it sleet or even mixed with rain) but should be pretty to look at maybe if someone is lucky.

Nam has been holding on to cold 950mb to 925mb temps along the eastern slopes of the appalachians from ga into the carolinas, so I expect areas of 2000 to 3000 feet, possibly as low as 1500 feet, from north ga into nc to possibly pick up some significant freezing rain if heavier amounts arrive sooner than advertised before it changes over. Could even be some light freezing rain in the foothills of nc per gfs before it goes to rain pretty quickly.

Nothing major it would seem and it's not a given but there is a chance. Could be a nice little snow event for parts of LA/MS it would seem as well.

Then we get flooded lol

at this point i would gladly take a little freezing rain lol - anything to help add to the winter and keep feb. from being a non-winter wx month. looks like its going to be very close again - the last couple of days were rain and mid 30s so it would be nice to get a couple of degrees lower

[superjames1992]

HPC seems to be indicating that significant icing is possible in the northwestern Piedmont initially.

[wx n of atl]

Seeking a EURO update... specifically n. ga mtns just seeing if there was any possiblities of frozen prep this weekend.

[3monkeymom]

Could be a nice little snow event for parts of LA/MS it would seem as well.

I'm about 30 miles N of Lake Pontchartrain in LA. Let's just say today's local forecast has busted in a big way. We had a projected high of 46 with light precip moving in after sundown. No snow possible, just cold rain, then later freezing rain and maybe some sleet.

Instead, surface temp is sitting at 35, and for the last 90 minutes we've been getting off-and-on bursts of flurries. No accumulation, clearly, but everything that's fallen has been fine, powdery snow. Now what I'm wondering is if the supposed initialization errors with the earlier runs of the NAM and GFS had anything to do with the bust, or if there's something else going on aloft that accounts for it (or both). I'm also wondering what that means (if anything) for our forecast ice storm.

Can anyone offer any insight? I know most of the mets here focus on GA and the Carolinas, but the local mets tend to be really conservative about winter events and getting information about whatever's developing can be next to impossible. Nobody wants to be the one who cried wolf, I think.

[DaculaWeather]

Man, Wed and Thur look brutal next week. And I know we've seen this before but wow. Gotta love that double-barrel low sitting off the coast!

[burgertime]

I'm about 30 miles N of Lake Pontchartrain in LA. Let's just say today's local forecast has busted in a big way. We had a projected high of 46 with light precip moving in after sundown. No snow possible, just cold rain, then later freezing rain and maybe some sleet.

Instead, surface temp is sitting at 35, and for the last 90 minutes we've been getting off-and-on bursts of flurries. No accumulation, clearly, but everything that's fallen has been fine, powdery snow. Now what I'm wondering is if the supposed initialization errors with the earlier runs of the NAM and GFS had anything to do with the bust, or if there's something else going on aloft that accounts for it (or both). I'm also wondering what that means (if anything) for our forecast ice storm.

Can anyone offer any insight? I know most of the mets here focus on GA and the Carolinas, but the local mets tend to be really conservative about winter events and getting information about whatever's developing can be next to impossible. Nobody wants to be the one who cried wolf, I think.

I believe errors had to do with them not seeing the snow depth and therefore the temps were much colder across the central united states...Given the snow cover that colder air would seep down your way. Congrats on the flurries!

As per the ice storm? It's close, but clearly models are off so it's anyone's guess. Where is AlHurricane when you need him?

[BullCityWx]

IAH really gets a hell of a snowstorm for their standards on the 12z Euro.

[Lookout]

I'm about 30 miles N of Lake Pontchartrain in LA. Let's just say today's local forecast has busted in a big way. We had a projected high of 46 with light precip moving in after sundown. No snow possible, just cold rain, then later freezing rain and maybe some sleet.

Instead, surface temp is sitting at 35, and for the last 90 minutes we've been getting off-and-on bursts of flurries. No accumulation, clearly, but everything that's fallen has been fine, powdery snow. Now what I'm wondering is if the supposed initialization errors with the earlier runs of the NAM and GFS had anything to do with the bust, or if there's something else going on aloft that accounts for it (or both). I'm also wondering what that means (if anything) for our forecast ice storm.

Can anyone offer any insight? I know most of the mets here focus on GA and the Carolinas, but the local mets tend to be really conservative about winter events and getting information about whatever's developing can be next to impossible. Nobody wants to be the one who cried wolf, I think.

Just a note, despite your forecasted high, the models only had your location in the mid to upper 30s so it would seem the nws busted more so than the models.

But It's not unusual for the models to miss the shallow nature of true arctic air and/or evaporational cooling which is what is a possibility. Looking at the soundings for bogulusa, it's going to be very close where you are. Both nam/gfs have you right above 32..like 32.5/33 with a wetbulb at 32. I'm not sure how it works down there but usually the nam/gfs miss it by 1 to 3 degrees in these situations. And make no mistake it is very shallow where you are...only below freezing (barely) on the soundings from about 975mb to the surface.

It would seem the greatest threat of icing is west and north of you base on boundary layer temps of the gfs/nam. You seem to be right on the line so it could go either way it would seem for you.

Interesting to note also, your current soundings look almost exactly like those here in georgia through tomorrow...with 850s as warm as 7c but with a wetbulb of -1.3c. So if it's happening there with that profile, it supports the idea of some mixed precip/flurries at the onset of precip here.

[BIG FROSTY]

I think chances for a little Ice here Friday/Saturday is growing. Blacksburg seems to think so !

FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. A SLIGHT

CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY WITH A

CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SLEET

ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SLEET IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.

LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE

MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

80 PERCENT.

[gil888]

I'm about 30 miles N of Lake Pontchartrain in LA. Let's just say today's local forecast has busted in a big way. We had a projected high of 46 with light precip moving in after sundown. No snow possible, just cold rain, then later freezing rain and maybe some sleet.

Instead, surface temp is sitting at 35, and for the last 90 minutes we've been getting off-and-on bursts of flurries. No accumulation, clearly, but everything that's fallen has been fine, powdery snow. Now what I'm wondering is if the supposed initialization errors with the earlier runs of the NAM and GFS had anything to do with the bust, or if there's something else going on aloft that accounts for it (or both). I'm also wondering what that means (if anything) for our forecast ice storm.

Can anyone offer any insight? I know most of the mets here focus on GA and the Carolinas, but the local mets tend to be really conservative about winter events and getting information about whatever's developing can be next to impossible. Nobody wants to be the one who cried wolf, I think.

I think the clouds were thicker than expected . Either way, you are quite marginal for the freezing rain area. I think McComb or especially Natchez will get it much worse. I'd be happy with the insignificant flurries-- they don't even show up on radar. Pretty rare for SE LA. I get the sense that this storm will be hyped on the 5pm news especially from Baton Rouge NWward. Maybe bc the last storm was so bad for the Midwest?