Feb 5th and 6th Storm

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

I was reading DT's Facebook page and he said early Sunday Models are showing more of a South and East Trend with the lows next Wednesday and Saturday. This could result in Snow for Central and Eastern NC. It's beginning to look better, hope the trend and timing continue to improve with this storm.

[Inudaw]

Not what I got from reading DT"s face book.. He is adamant of the Mid-west winter starting now. O_o

Saying that the February 5th storm could produce a significant storm for portions of the TN, KT .. and Ohio valley area. I got to say though.. No model shows it right now. The threat ON MODELS, seem to be much further east at this time for the February 5th-6th threat. Sure his call can happen... it would have to slow down the energy more imo... and allow for more separation between it and the storm hitting mid-week.

Allowing for separation between the two allows the baroclinic zone to back up again and allow for a further north track.. (no blocking present.. so a ridge is going to want to pop really quickly in front of any shortwave that comes along right now...) It would have to happen after the 6th.. for it to build enough ridging and restore the thermal gradient further west for it to pump that far north and west to affect the Ohio Valley. (GGEM was close to doing it.. but northern stream and confluence crushed it south-east instead.

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

Thanks for the info, I haven't been back over there for awhile. Maybe the low will slow down.

[Inudaw]

Ah.. was just on his wxrisk facebook page.

[Cold Rain]

I wonder if he happened to notice how warm the 850s are on every model at 0Z (and the 6Z GFS)? Yesterday, there were only a couple of models even indicating that a wave would form along the Arctic boundary after the first storm passed. Now, virtually every model has that feature developing and taking a favorable track. But guess what....no cold air feeding into the system AND the Arctic boundary barely makes it into the area now before retreating.

[burgertime]

lol @DT's FB profile.

I'm surprised more folks aren't posting about the last couple of runs of the GFS....I mean I know it's the GFS and all but still looks pretty good.

[Weather Czar]

lol @DT's FB profile.

I'm surprised more folks aren't posting about the last couple of runs of the GFS....I mean I know it's the GFS and all but still looks pretty good.

Not far from the euro. The gfs is the coldest. Although when you compare the last two euro runs in came in a little colder last night. The cmc took a huge step our way. I hope this continues over the next few runs. Anyone got ensembles? I'm on my phone and can't access Allans sight.

[Poimen]

I wonder if he happened to notice how warm the 850s are on every model at 0Z (and the 6Z GFS)? Yesterday, there were only a couple of models even indicating that a wave would form along the Arctic boundary after the first storm passed. Now, virtually every model has that feature developing and taking a favorable track. But guess what....no cold air feeding into the system AND the Arctic boundary barely makes it into the area now before retreating.

The 0Z GFS was cold enough across central NC, although like you said the other guidance was too warm. At least the models are moving toward a coastal system as opposed to another inland runner.

I think we will just have to wait and see how the first storm fully evolves. How that one plays out will probably have an impact on how far south the arctic boundary gets.

[Cold Rain]

The 0Z GFS was cold enough across central NC, although like you said the other guidance was too warm. At least the models are moving toward a coastal system as opposed to another inland runner.

I think we will just have to wait and see how the first storm fully evolves. How that one plays out will probably have an impact on how far south the arctic boundary gets.

Yeah, I agree with you. The two things that are important in my view regarding this are: 1) Most other guidance (than just the GFS) now has the system, and 2) The GFS, which was colder, has trended warmer. Not sure why, as I haven't had time study it very much yet, but it appears the boundary doesn't get quite as entrenched across the region as it did in earlier runs.

I'd like to see the evolution of a good cold air feed in all of the main modeling...not another Low over the Lakes. Plenty of time to watch.

[BIG FROSTY]

06z GFS @ 144

[BIG FROSTY]

Found this little snippet from a Big Dog Met this morning. Speaking of next weekend.....

The old money in the bank trick, this leaves a strong money in the back system behind which will have its heaviest snows this weekend further southeast, another la nina storm, the third of the season with snows starting deep in the south that makes it up the east coast! That looks like a big ticket weather problem for the northeast as well as much of the mid atlantic and back to the western Carolinas, all the way perhaps to Texas!

[eyewall]

One key element here I don't like is no parent high (aside from the issue this looks like western areas only at this stage of the game). Obviously we are a week away and have been here all too often so we shall see what transpires. The encouraging side is both of our major events this year were preceded by a lakes cutter or inland tracking storm (The one on the 2nd may be closer to apps runner if you want to get picky).

[Cold Rain]

One key element here I don't like is no parent high (aside from the issue this looks like western areas only at this stage of the game). Obviously we are a week away and have been here all too often so we shall see what transpires. The encouraging side is both of our major events this year were preceded by a lakes cutter or inland tracking storm (The one on the 2nd may be closer to apps runner if you want to get picky).

The one thing I don't like, which relates to your missing parent high, is the fact that most 0Z and 6Z models are too warm already (for areas outside of the west). Gone are the days when things trended colder with regularity. Seems like most events trend warmer with time. The need to start off plenty cold so they can trend warmer and still be cold enough.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

One key element here I don't like is no parent high (aside from the issue this looks like western areas only at this stage of the game). Obviously we are a week away and have been here all too often so we shall see what transpires. The encouraging side is both of our major events this year were preceded by a lakes cutter or inland tracking storm (The one on the 2nd may be closer to apps runner if you want to get picky).

I had a sneaky feeling that this thing would trend west from yesterday's runs, but now even the folks out this way are getting worried. The 06z GFS has me right at freezing for the event. Yesterday I was in the 20's for the entire storm. This is a snipett from MeteoStar for my location.

138 Sat 02/05 00Z 33 ° 38 ° 32 ° 36 ° E 4 W 4 0.09 0.00 546 563 1 °-15 °1021 100 %

141 Sat 02/05 03Z 31 ° 33 ° 31 ° 32 ° NE 4 ESE 2 0.26 0.00 546 561 -1 °-15 °1020 100 %

144 Sat 02/05 06Z 31 ° 33 ° 31 ° 32 ° NNE 7 SSE 4 0.10 0.00 545 558 0 °-17 °1016 100 %

147 Sat 02/05 09Z 32 ° 32 ° 31 ° 32 ° N 4 SW 9 0.13 0.00 544 554 0 °-19 °1013 100 %

150 Sat 02/05 12Z 33 ° 33 ° 31 ° 32 ° NNW 2 W 13 0.06 0.00 540 550 -1 °-18 °1013 98 %

Edit for spacing

[weatherheels]

The GFS yesterday had the OBX getting in on some snow. Not even 24 hours later the GFS has moved the 850 line about 300 miles N and W. Don't be surprised if this one ends up like the last one.

[jrips27]

So far the 12z GFS doesn't look to good. No high pressure to push the cold air down.

[Cold Rain]

This one is over before it ever got started. As has been the case this season, the models are delaying the system until the cold air moves out. Development along the Arctic front is too late as the front either washes out or retreats back to the north. With no high in sight to funnel in cold air, forget it. And there isn't one. Of course, I'm looking at the 12Z GFS to determine this at 150 hrs out, but the pattern supports the analysis. If we could get development sooner then we'd have a shot. But that won't happen here...at least it's looking very, very unlikely at this point.

I have to agree with Cheez, it's going to be late Feb. before we get a real potential to show up in the short range, more than likely.

[burgertime]

One model run and the towel is being thrown for a storm in Feb? Come on guys we can do better then that! Not saying I love our chances but this thing is still open. You know how it goes, when the GFS starts saying no usually the Euro will start saying yes!

[FoothillsNC]

I like our chances at finally get some good rain events into the Southeast, after a really dry period esp. here in the Carolinas. First the Tue/Wed storm, with thunderstorms and maybe 1.00" qpf , then the front stalls to our south and backing flow brings rains back into Ga and the Carolinas over the weekend. There may even be some snow under the upper low over Ark, Tx, La area with that 5H feature as it moves east, but our temps will look a little too warm, as we never get a good cold push on the east side of the Apps.

Looking further down the road, the PNA sends strong troughing out west to the midsection, so that should place the Southeast under good southwest flow for several more rounds of good rain events over the next couple of weeks. All very good news for the drought here.

[POWERSTROKE]

I like our chances at finally get some good rain events into the Southeast, after a really dry period esp. here in the Carolinas. First the Tue/Wed storm, with thunderstorms and maybe 1.00" qpf , then the front stalls to our south and backing flow brings rains back into Ga and the Carolinas over the weekend. There may even be some snow under the upper low over Ark, Tx, La area with that 5H feature as it moves east, but our temps will look a little too warm, as we never get a good cold push on the east side of the Apps.

Looking further down the road, the PNA sends strong troughing out west to the midsection, so that should place the Southeast under good southwest flow for several more rounds of good rain events over the next couple of weeks. All very good news for the drought here.

I need dry weather not rain, have too much work going on. I know we need rain too but not all at once I hope

[POWERSTROKE]

Found this little snippet from a Big Dog Met this morning. Speaking of next weekend.....

The old money in the bank trick, this leaves a strong money in the back system behind which will have its heaviest snows this weekend further southeast, another la nina storm, the third of the season with snows starting deep in the south that makes it up the east coast! That looks like a big ticket weather problem for the northeast as well as much of the mid atlantic and back to the western Carolinas, all the way perhaps to Texas!

Time will tell, as normal he will change forecast by mid week

[Cold Rain]

One model run and the towel is being thrown for a storm in Feb? Come on guys we can do better then that! Not saying I love our chances but this thing is still open. You know how it goes, when the GFS starts saying no usually the Euro will start saying yes!

I wish I could find a picture of Cousin Eddie from Christmas Vacation throwing the towel into the pool from the diving board, but I can't.

Unfortunately, the pattern for that storm looks bad as HP sinks down into the western Gulf and the midwest and Canada is filled with nothing but low pressures. I doubt it'll be significantly different on the other models, but we'll see. The whole pattern is just not where we need it to be. It looks pretty good for rain, but even that has had a hard time panning out here in the central part of the state. The upcoming Lakes Cutter will take all the dynamics well to the north of us, so we'll be relying on a cold front and storms for rain. That's fine, but I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities for that to change from a robust line of storms and heavy rain to a weak, dissipating line of showers.

[Weather Czar]

Anyone got the ukie?

[FoothillsNC]

The upcoming Lakes Cutter will take all the dynamics well to the north of us, so we'll be relying on a cold front and storms for rain. That's fine, but I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities for that to change from a robust line of storms and heavy rain to a weak, dissipating line of showers.

this stalling out front may be a good thing for NC. I've noticed the models keep having less and less eastward progress and "umph" to the front east of the mountains, and maintain a lot of southwest flow. This will probably allow less cold air to penetrate east of the mountains, but on the plus side allow a quicker return to moisture here. The storm in the Northeast by Wednesday really weakens and the closed low around th 4 corners could allow a quick return to chilly overrunning rains, maybe even snow west of the Apps. Unless that 4 corners low completely cuts off from the flow, then we'd have to wait until it moves east much later.

[Cold Rain]

this stalling out front may be a good thing for NC. I've noticed the models keep having less and less eastward progress and "umph" to the front east of the mountains, and maintain a lot of southwest flow. This will probably allow less cold air to penetrate east of the mountains, but on the plus side allow a quicker return to moisture here. The storm in the Northeast by Wednesday really weakens and the closed low around th 4 corners could allow a quick return to chilly overrunning rains, maybe even snow west of the Apps. Unless that 4 corners low completely cuts off from the flow, then we'd have to wait until it moves east much later.

If we're not going to get snow, I hope it works out as you suggest and we get some much needed rain. Hate to get screwed out of snow and then the rain too!

[BIG FROSTY]

I think the 06z GFS showed about 3 different snow events here in the next couple weeks THEN

12z GFS shows about 3 different rain events in the next couple weeks. lol

[FoothillsNC]

If we're not going to get snow, I hope it works out as you suggest and we get some much needed rain. Hate to get screwed out of snow and then the rain too!

The Euro still suggests the cold air hits the APPS and its like hitting a brick wall. There's a very sharp gradient in the cold air showing up from NC to KY. For example at 96 hours central NC is +3 and its -12 in eastern KY. Amazing gradient. Unfortunately its down on its qpf for central and eastern NC, down below .50" or so, while the western sections have maybe up to .75" in spots. N. Ga does well but they're not in dire need as the Carolinas are. By 108 hours, the upper low in northern Mexico and west Texas looks on the move, and moisture is coming back on a backing wind.

[FoothillsNC]

It looks like the Euro is opening up the closed low around 120 hours and opens the gulf wide open with a big mass of rain coming inland for the Southeast. If there was high pressure to the north we'd have an ice or snow setup, but the weak high slides out to sea, could be some in-situ for northern or western NC early on but with WAA strong at 850, the warmer air wins out early with big rains over Ga and the Carolinas Friday. Under the cold core of the upper low in Ark, Ms , La, and Tex it could be cold enough for snow and that migrates to western and central TN maybe. But very warm surge east of the Apps with probably a big 1" or greater rain event.

[FoothillsNC]

Pretty big bust on the Euro froma few days ago. It had -14 to -16 getting in here after this storm, yet this run has the coldest temp at 850 at +1. Thats a rather large difference. The cold air never makes it to the Carolinas.

[Cold Rain]

The Euro still suggests the cold air hits the APPS and its like hitting a brick wall. There's a very sharp gradient in the cold air showing up from NC to KY. For example at 96 hours central NC is +3 and its -12 in eastern KY. Amazing gradient. Unfortunately its down on its qpf for central and eastern NC, down below .50" or so, while the western sections have maybe up to .75" in spots. N. Ga does well but they're not in dire need as the Carolinas are. By 108 hours, the upper low in northern Mexico and west Texas looks on the move, and moisture is coming back on a backing wind.

I think the problem with getting the front through the area is twofold: First, the main high heads south moreso than SE. Second, instead of the Lakes storm winding up like the models showed a couple days ago, it gets kind of Miller B'sish in the NE. That weakens the wind field, so the front ends up not blasting through.

Regarding QPF, I'm not surprised in the least with it looking less for here. I can almost guarantee you that the general totals around this area will be less than what the latest guidance shows. You either have to have dynamics or instability or both to get good frontal rains here (unless the front is stalling over the area). Neither one will be present in generous supply with this deal, so I'll be very surprised to see more than .25 around here.

Hopefully,we can make up for it with the next one.