ptb127 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 After looking at the euro on the computer instead of my phone. This storm is actually inland runs right along i95 Would it be a big hit inland? Or rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This one will likely end up being more amplified once the models have finished resolving the current situation. I was hoping the timing of this event was going to slow down as their will be a drop in the NAO as we move towards the mid part of February. Not saying we can't get the job done but it doesn't look like anything more than a week low at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here is the NAO forecast off the 00z EC run, I'm not buying the big shift towards a positive NAO which the 12z run made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That energy dropping into the Plains will make this interesting. Will it yank this storm NW on future runs? Very, very, little cold air with PHL already on the borderline on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That energy dropping into the Plains will make this interesting. Will it yank this storm NW on future runs? Very, very, little cold air with PHL already on the borderline on the GFS. All it takes is just enough. Looks like a solid but not big event on the 18z GFS. That could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 These amateur eyes don't see any cold air in place for snow in the NYC area (POSSIBLY far north and west). Looks wet, not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 These amateur eyes don't see any cold air in place for snow in the NYC area (POSSIBLY far north and west). Looks wet, not white. Going to be a very fragile/thread the needle situation. Nothing to prevent warm air intrusions and a coast hugging track, or even inland if the phasing takes place as it could. It however could be a big deal if everything comes together properly. I was one of those who diminished the last storm which dumped over 16" on me until the last second when it was already 4"/houring on my head. This winter, expect any and all possibilities!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 In a winter like this one, I really would not be shocked if we get snow from the worst possible setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 These amateur eyes don't see any cold air in place for snow in the NYC area (POSSIBLY far north and west). Looks wet, not white. There is enough cold air in place, but it's fragile. Definitely looks like a decent possibility of snow given seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Going to be a very fragile/thread the needle situation. Nothing to prevent warm air intrusions and a coast hugging track, or even inland if the phasing takes place as it could. It however could be a big deal if everything comes together properly. I was one of those who diminished the last storm which dumped over 16" on me until the last second when it was already 4"/houring on my head. This winter, expect any and all possibilities!! Yup, it's all about the timing of the phase. Too early and it comes inland, too late and it slides offshore. There has been zero model trend and ensemble guidance is widely varied, so the forecast is not exactly a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That hits it 100%. It is way too early for this one to tell. February looks nothing lake our past month, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 nice and warm with the storm through 114...looks like some phasing took place and yanked it westward on this run but the energy is still pretty strung out and the low never bombs...big cities are rain...I feel like there's still some room to bring it a little more west, so congrats OH for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 nice and warm with the storm through 114...looks like some phasing took place and yanked it westward on this run but the energy is still pretty strung out and the low never bombs...big cities are rain...I feel like there's still some room to bring it a little more west, so congrats OH for this storm? Congrats DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DT says this can be snow to rain, with all snow in NYC.... via facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Congrats DT? We'll have to get this storm out oif the way before the next storm can be nailed down. I still have a good feeling about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 DT says this can be snow to rain, with all snow in NYC.... via facebook. This is what he said on his facebook Models are developing the weak coastal Low FEB 5 into a bigger system that coems up the East coast. He then said that NYC can see all snow. We'll have to get this storm out oif the way before the next storm can be nailed down. I still have a good feeling about that one. We need a high pressure up north. This storm has to come be perfect for our area because there isn't really any cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 The last 3 runs of the GFS have been almost identical. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The last 3 runs of the GFS have been almost identical. Pretty cool. Yep - .25-.5 total. I haven't seen what the GGEM has. But we could easily get cold air after this storm for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Canadian looking better. Now has a low off the coast instead of over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks as though the fence will be in the northern PHI burbs at this point. Someone may see near a half foot of snow if the trend continues. A couple inches nice probability from this distance. Keep on trending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 cmc precip model has a good look from here http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z euro is very warm with the system.. All rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In a winter like this one, I really would not be shocked if we get snow from the worst possible setup... Lol I totally agree. Although I'm kinda hoping for rain this time around, switch it up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z euro is very warm with the system.. All rain just viewed euro and was going to post the same thing. warm rain followed by warm then what ever is left re-freezes mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z euro is very warm with the system.. All rain It has been for several runs already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 cmc precip model has a good look from here http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Quite a wintry run there north of I-78 in PA. Mostly ice/sleet from round 2 and then a pretty good snow hit for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 uptons take as of 636am.... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE REALLY FRIGID AIR TO OUR NORTH. THEN...MODELS DIVERGE ON HANDLING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS COLDER AND A LITTLE SLOWER...MOVING A COASTAL LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK LATE SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING THE TRACK...THE LATEST RUN CAME IN WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOW HUGGING THE COAST. HAVE KEPT SNOW EVERYWHERE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY FLIRT WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY AS HIGH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Im still not liking this threat for the cities, probably a good interior event maybe. No high pressure to lock in cold, strong se ridge, with a northern stream dropping down ready to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Im still not liking this threat for the cities, probably a good interior event maybe. No high pressure to lock in cold, strong se ridge, with a northern stream dropping down ready to phase. We are going to thread the needle with this storm., This can be a good storm for our area if it takes the perfect track or if the storm explodes off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not really liking our chances for this storm and really for the rest of the winter. The pattern has definitely changed for the worse here and it seems like we're finally into the traditional Nina "look" with lows moving north to our west and the SE ridge pumping way up. Oh well I got more snow this winter than I ever expected. I do hope though that if we're not going to see snow that it semi-torches and we get some warm air in here.....get my kids out of the house and save me some heating costs. Im still not liking this threat for the cities, probably a good interior event maybe. No high pressure to lock in cold, strong se ridge, with a northern stream dropping down ready to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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