RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No: http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06132.gif yea verbatim it doesnt....but the atlantic is really crap. so any more dig and or wrapping and it ends up in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big time thread the needle here. Any more amped, and it probably tracks too far west. Kinda scary to have it in this spot at day 5... That southern stream trough is dampening while some northern stream energy is coming down. Hm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yea verbatim it doesnt....but the atlantic is really crap. so any more dig and or wrapping and it ends up in Buffalo. Well the GFS has only had one warm run.. and we need to get past this storm before nailing down specifics of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well the GFS has only had one warm run.. and we need to get past this storm before nailing down specifics of the pattern. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM 144 Looking like the GFS from that map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 132 color maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking like the GFS from that map.. yeah very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 near miss. Kind of like the first half of winter where guidance was either snow or no. Not these recent storms where its either wet or white or ice, but I suspect this may head that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 144 euro develops a weak sub 1008 low about 150-200 miles east of delmarva some lgt precip over phl and dc but 850s are on phl and just west of dc.. frz line nw of the cities by about 40 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 150 and 156 another weak storm forms and brings some lgt snow to dc and phl .01-.1 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Next weekend event looking like toast... Weak crap. Next Oh Ji - the models have had trouble with storms TWO days out. Might as well ride the GFS at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tombo hows the euro look for the 2/9 threat and overall cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tombo hows the euro look for the 2/9 threat and overall cold? hr 204 it has a storm that rides the cold front that goes into the lakes, leaving behind just the cold front and rain accompanying it....but yea bitter cold behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 204 it has a storm that rides the cold front that goes into the lakes, leaving behind just the cold front and rain accompanying it....but yea bitter cold behind it Looks like a nice change from the torch the Euro was advertising in the midrange most of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z GFS shows a light snowfall for our area. This storm looks like a thread the needle storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 <br />12z GFS shows a light snowfall for our area. This storm looks like a thread the needle storm.<br /><br /><br /><br />Yeah, it looks like temps should be ok with that track and intensity. Looks much better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z GFS literally JUST MISSED the phase here - take a look at that energy diving down through IOWA. Six hours sooner and it goes boom over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not really a bam. More like wham. Yea, like Noreaster just said, we are very close to a BAM ant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea, like Noreaster just said, we are very close to a BAM ant. The one bad thing is that there isn't a high up north to feed down cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The one bad thing is that there isn't a high up north to feed down cold air. I think your being too literal, models have to decide what to do with the current system before they can make an accurate call with the current one. The eventual fate of the coastal could help introduce blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM drives a primary to the lakes and redevelops a low that goes west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM drives a primary to the lakes and redevelops a low that goes west of NYC. LOL- it took the slp from New Orleans to Detroit with a neutral tilted trough....right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Did the Euro show much of anything wrt to this threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Coastal but to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 love how the long range analogs keep pointing towards a major event. 96 and 03 keep showing up. Not saying its going to happen but it sure looks good seeing them their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 After looking at the euro on the computer instead of my phone. This storm is actually inland runs right along i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 love how the long range analogs keep pointing towards a major event. 96 and 03 keep showing up. Not saying its going to happen but it sure looks good seeing them their. Huge different setup with those HECS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Huge different setup with those HECS... 96 had a storm very similar to our current event, which also is a high hit on the analogs which set the stage. Again, not making a forecast, just stating what the analogs are indicating. FWIW, Blizzard of 96 is in spot #15. When you juggle them however based on 500mb current synoptics, it jumps up to #5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM slowly getting there. Much better than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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