blazess556 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS looking better for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS looking better for this storm. yes it is sir, Benchmark coastal storm around day 6. Great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The coastal is looking better on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z DGEX DGEX is warm, but the GFS is right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DGEX is warm, but the GFS is right where we want it. Check out the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Check out the surface temps. Snow or ice? Sometimes it's hard to tell. Looks like our great winter may continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Snow or ice? Sometimes it's hard to tell. Looks like our great winter may continue! I just fear that it could be back-to-back freezing rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If both this system and the next one verify, you can lock up major flooding to follow. Even a relativly slow thaw will cause the rivers to rise significantly and come the March rains that will be all she wrote. By the way, I'm of the snow now, ask questions later attitude so keep em coming, and start buying sand bags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If both this system and the next one verify, you can lock up major flooding to follow. Even a relativly slow thaw will cause the rivers to rise significantly and come the March rains that will be all she wrote. By the way, I'm of the snow now, ask questions later attitude so keep em coming, and start buying sand bags. How do you know they will verify as rainstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This one is well positioned to be a significant snow maker for the east coast....highly unlikely we see any ZR with this one I just fear that it could be back-to-back freezing rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Mt Holly in their most recent disco indicated most models are not showing a snow event and that the one that is the Euro may have precipitation issues for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 another rainstorm at 150 hrs. Peace yes it is sir, Benchmark coastal storm around day 6. Great sign bi polar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Mt Holly in their most recent disco indicated most models are not showing a snow event and that the one that is the Euro may have precipitation issues for the area Must have been before the 18z GFS, because it's cold enough on that run. Euro was just a light mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Must have been before the 18z GFS, because it's cold enough on that run. Euro was just a light mix. The euro was a mix to start then over to rain fro pretty much everyone from abe to rdg south. It has no cold air, its just stale cold. This event is going to come to timing. You want the storm to come sooner, rather than later. The sooner it comes the better cold air supply you will have. You also have to to see how much the northern stream phases in. You can see on half of the gfs ens members it phases in to much bringing a hugger or inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The euro was a mix to start then over to rain fro pretty much everyone from abe to rdg south. It has no cold air, its just stale cold. This event is going to come to timing. You want the storm to come sooner, rather than later. The sooner it comes the better cold air supply you will have. Also, intensity in this case may help with getting cold air in? The weaker OTS run at 12z was warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Also, intensity in this case may help with getting cold air in? The weaker OTS run at 12z was warmer. yea the more intense storm would draw the colder air in. You just need the right spot for the phasing to occur like any storm when your not dealing with a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yea the more intense storm would draw the colder air in. You just need the right spot for the phasing to occur like any storm when your not dealing with a block. Yup. Go check out the 2/7/2003 analog I posted on the main board. That's really what needs to happen for this to be a good snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yup. Go check out the 2/7/2003 analog I posted on the main board. That's really what needs to happen for this to be a good snow storm. here's the link to the analog storm adam is talking about. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2003/us0207.php corresponding snowfall totals with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hmmm, gfs honking for amplification with the next storm, not sure if this is going to come too far inland however. Its coming up at 111 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hmmm, gfs honking for amplification with the next storm, not sure if this is going to come too far inland however. Its coming up at 111 hours. Temps ok at hr. 126, but will it come up enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hmmm, gfs honking for amplification with the next storm, not sure if this is going to come too far inland however. Its coming up at 111 hours. SE canada doesnt look good ... EDIT: guess it doesnt matter...still off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SE canada doesnt look good ....should cut inland. No: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like its stays off the coast. Nice little storm coming up. 500 mb stays open so I don't think it bombs but thats good because without any blocking and stale HP, this is probably the only solution that produces snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Pretty much tracks over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Precip is somewhat paltry in the cold sector, though - maybe that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Goes right over the BM. 850s and surface plenty cold for nyc and philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Precip is somewhat paltry in the cold sector, though - maybe that will change. Big time thread the needle here. Any more amped, and it probably tracks too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big time thread the needle here. Any more amped, and it probably tracks too far west. If it bombs offshore closer to us, though, wouldn't that be good? Draws in cold like the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 models are not even worth looking at until the current storm is resolved. Still big differences which will have downstream effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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