mattinpa Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It cuts it toward the lakes and then redevelops off the coast. Maybe near the DelMarva. Yes, it looked like a Miller B. Way different than what the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Honestly, their is a dip in the NAO around the same time that the 9-10 day threat comes to fruition. Hopefully in future runs we can sqeeze out a slightly negitive NAO to help things along. The extended range though looks horrid wth the latest EC weeklies really pumping up the typical NINA SE ridge and saying goodbye to winter in the east. Of course, their are alot of unbelievers at the moment. I really don't see that happening; not with the signals out in the Pacific and MJO signals which supports blocking will return. Don Sutherland and Adam have said this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I really don't see that happening; not with the signals out in the Pacific and MJO signals which supports blocking will return. Don Sutherland and Adam have said this. Hope they are right and we pull off another blockbuster event. Sounds like the interior is finaly going to get its snow in the next week or so. Hopefully that will put an end to the "always getting shafted" talk and trolling thats been going on. Then as the NAO begins to dip in mid February and the southern stream remains active, hopefully things will fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Surprised its quiet in here with the euro likely out to the weekend potential? Any updates on the ecm for the 2/4 - 2/6 storm threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 its been broken down for weeks dude, and philly/nyc have still been getting snow. Many experts are calling for a -nao rejuvination in february. The NAO has been neutral and is now becoming positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At hr. 132 it has the low centered over the Florida panhandle. Surprised its quiet in here with the euro likely out to the weekend potential? Any updates on the ecm for the 2/4 - 2/6 storm threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Broad area of weak low pressure over the entire Southeast at 138 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 144 hrs light snow has made it to NYC's doorsteps. Weak area of broad low pressure through the Southeast. Center of low pressure appears to be over Kentucky at sub 1008mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The NAO has been neutral and is now becoming positive. And the Euro and GFS show positive NAO through at least mid-month and prob. longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 another rainstorm at 150 hrs. Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 150 hrs the 850 line is just north of NYC with light precipitation. There is a broad area of weak low pressure extending from OH to the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 156 hrs a sub 1004mb low sits over NYC with light precipitation throughout the area and the 850 line running SW to NE through NW NJ, just north of ABE and into Northern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 162 hrs has a sub 100mb low in the Gulf of Maine, 850's now off shore and light precip coming to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 another rainstorm at 150 hrs. Peace We're definitely seeing a more typical Nina pattern emerge on the latest guidance, from this coming storm on out. Luckily it's already Feb and we rocked for more than a month due to favorable timing and the -NAO, but if guidance is right on the SE Ridge returning for Feb, the usual Nina areas will get crushed in New England/Midwest and we get slop/rain most of the time. But we've certainly had a month and a half for the ages regardless and any season that's almost certain to break 60" if not 65" at NYC is tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We're definitely seeing a more typical Nina pattern emerge on the latest guidance, from this coming storm on out. Luckily it's already Feb and we rocked for more than a month due to favorable timing and the -NAO, but if guidance is right on the SE Ridge returning for Feb, the usual Nina areas will get crushed in New England/Midwest and we get slop/rain most of the time. But we've certainly had a month and a half for the ages regardless and any season that's almost certain to break 60" if not 65" at NYC is tremendous. It wasn't really a rainstorm and I don't think we can rely on guidance right now for future pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 another rainstorm at 150 hrs. Peace Bye Seriously, why are people giving up on winter? It's only Jan 30 for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 another rainstorm at 150 hrs. Peace There is no report button on the mobile skin so sorry mods...but wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There is no report button on the mobile skin so sorry mods...but wtf? WTF-why can't he post his opinion...its a disgrace and utterly pathetic that you guys can't handle any report that isn't pro-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I really don't see that happening; not with the signals out in the Pacific and MJO signals which supports blocking will return. Don Sutherland and Adam have said this. To be clear, I feel much more confident in a -AO than a -NAO, though they are obviously correlated. The MJO will lead to increased mountain torques across Asia, which in turn will set off planetary waves which disrupt the polar vortex, leading to higher heights over the pole. That doesn't necessarily mean it will become disrupted in a manner that pumps up a ridge across Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The block is coming back, you can see it starting at the end of the euro run. Also, the -AO will help with this. So we take a 2 week break with a few mixed or light events, I am amazed we haven't had more breaks. Watch out Mid February through Mid March, another historic period coming. In the meantime, enjoy the snow you got! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The block is coming back, you can see it starting at the end of the euro run. Also, the -AO will help with this. So we take a 2 week break with a few mixed or light events, I am amazed we haven't had more breaks. Watch out Mid February through Mid March, another historic period coming. In the meantime, enjoy the snow you got! I tend to agree with this....although if we manage to get a 12/26 type event it probably is a pattern changer as was the case with that one. Can we pull off a HECS in a season thats been almost historical to begin with? Only time will tell. Happy to see the NAO spiking early on in February and not towards the latter half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is at the very least our thaw period -- our January thaw delayed. That by the way is known as a 'climatic singularity'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I hope people realize that these runs will change dozens of times in the future. Even if it turns out to be rain, so what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Until the blocking and -AO regimes return, I would expect typical La Nina conditions--warm & wet, cold & dry. I'll leave the mid to long range forecasts up to the professionals, but for the near term (at least two weeks) I'd say things do not look good. It will be a true La Nina for the first time this winter. The biggest storm thus far out here has been 5"; nothing but nuisance snows with the best either going East (majority) or now West (the current incoming system). This region is like the buttcrack of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I tend to agree with this....although if we manage to get a 12/26 type event it probably is a pattern changer as was the case with that one. Can we pull off a HECS in a season thats been almost historical to begin with? Only time will tell. Happy to see the NAO spiking early on in February and not towards the latter half of the month. Just play the devil's advocate, the 10 day means show a SW flow aloft and the longer range GFS goes zonal after that. May be the la nina is showing up late? I'm hoping that that the fact this year has gone against hitorical trends will blow this out of the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The pattern being advertised in the long term is a real bummer. The GFS, GEFS and ECMWF ensembles have a moderate +NAO developing with broad troughing near Greenland and surrounding areas. In addition..the PNA ridge actually retrogrades and breaks down for a while, which allows the Southeast Ridge to flex it's muscles. This period was forecast to happen at some point during the winter, and guidance seems to indicate it's finally coming to fruition. I suspect that over the next week or so, we should begin to see some hints of a returning favorable pattern which should take hold of our weather by the middle of February. Until then, I think the Midwest and New England will make strides towards above average seasonal snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We simply can't expect the same pattern to last for the enitre winter, IF it did, we wouldn't be averaging 20-30" per season. Even the best winters (1995-1996, 2009-2010) all had significant breaks before reloading and firing back. Just deal with it and when it comes back, the favorable pattern, we'll get the second half of the winter, which I believe will pull us right behind or match or exceed 1995-1996 totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We simply can't expect the same pattern to last for the enitre winter, IF it did, we wouldn't be averaging 20-30" per season. Even the best winters (1995-1996, 2009-2010) all had significant breaks before reloading and firing back. Just deal with it and when it comes back, the favorable pattern, we'll get the second half of the winter, which I believe will pull us right behind or match or exceed 1995-1996 totals. I agree that this year has been a remarkable anomoly from past moderate to strong La Nina's, but why would we go back to high latitude blocking again given historical trends? By the way, have no idea what stratospheric warming has to do with all of this ala HM and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 historical data is important in these situations because intense high latitude blocking, especially if present early on in the season (Dec) has a history of coming back with similar intensity. Why wouldn't we look at that data and come to the conclusion that there is a correlation? Also signs of stratospheric warming are showing up, which tends to result in a drop of the AO into negative territory. This season might be different but I see no reason to conclude based on the data we have in front of us that high latitude blocking and or -AO wont return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro ens. at 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.