Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 topic seems dead, but I think there should be more discussion about Upton's forecast. around 1" of snow and up to 0.2" of icing for northern Fairfield County? there's a complete possibility that nothing except RA falls, but we'll see. I seem to favor some spotty PL/ZL from mid/late morning, but mostly just rain showers through the day. I totally agree with you. With t1, t2, and t3 temperatures like +1, +2, +5, and +8C, and above 540dm thicknesses, precip is mostly if not all rain. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yea even the 'skills rain out. oh valley to buffalo, toronto do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 topic seems dead, but I think there should be more discussion about Upton's forecast. around 1" of snow and up to 0.2" of icing for northern Fairfield County? there's a complete possibility that nothing except RA falls, but we'll see. I seem to favor some spotty PL/ZL from mid/late morning, but mostly just rain showers through the day. Agreed the depth of warming shown on the models, leaves little chance for much frozen/freezing. Mainly rain seems likely. With a primary LP to our west, WAA associated with unfavorable winds will keep temperatures high. This does not look like a favorable setup even for freezing rain/ice. Last storm we had the primary also cut to our west, but the difference is the secondary squeezed under the area, and the strong confluence to our north and winds around the HP helped keep temps cooler. No such setup this time around, would expect temps to rise significantly, especially with no HP to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 it's an interesting situation. MOS had DXR going from 9 at 12z to 26 at 15z a few runs ago. we probably start warming before 12z, but you get the idea. some portions of central NJ are down into the mid-teens. we could see a mess early, but temperatures are going to spike very quickly later this morning. any mention of snow from the lower Hudson Valley southward is likely to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Remarkable how the setup aloft has transformed on guidance over the past several days. We now have a robust area of vorticity and a 528dm closed H5 shortwave tracking over Northern PA and Central NY at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Remarkable how the setup aloft has transformed on guidance over the past several days. We now have a robust area of vorticity and a 528dm closed H5 shortwave tracking over Northern PA and Central NY at 24 hours. shouldn't you be asleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Funny.... All very light snow here in KP.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 it's an interesting situation. MOS had DXR going from 9 at 12z to 26 at 15z a few runs ago. we probably start warming before 12z, but you get the idea. some portions of central NJ are down into the mid-teens. we could see a mess early, but temperatures are going to spike very quickly later this morning. any mention of snow from the lower Hudson Valley southward is likely to bust. It's 22* here now and I've had some flurries this morning and it's starting to be noticeable on the ground. No wet stuff yet though. Oh well, off to work in the city. Should be an interesting drive down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 flurries in Danbury, just started a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the snow is coming down at a pretty good clip here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Had a little sleet snow mix that quickly transitioned to moderate snow with some of the most massive snowflakes I ever saw.. About the size of a silver dollar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Radar looks like little storm cells.. A big one went through my area and there is another intense one right behind it looks like its gonna nail me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Frz drizzle here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 zr now 26/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We received a coating. Nothing happening at the moment. Temp went from 18 at 6am to around 29 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 There was a coating of graupel followed by a little sleet in Larchmont, Mamaroneck, and Rye, NY earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Snow of varying intensity. 1/2" new. 28f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I don't recall the forecast from yesterday saying that a low pressure system in the Ohio Valley was going to absorb the coastal low. Nothing but freezing drizzle here in Garwood NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 25 light freezing rain after we had 0.2" sleet/snow. Roads are very icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I noticed I was expanded into the WWA overnight. I'm already above freezing, as is most of the rest of LI as per wunderground. Have a few sprinkles that just started, it's the first precip I've seen so far with this event. I suppose Upton was anticipating an earlier start time in regards to precip. I wasn't expecting anything but some light rain showers from this anyway. Better to be safe then sorry I guess, but that wasn't the case around here with the ice storm until it was too late IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I noticed I was expanded into the WWA overnight. I'm already above freezing, as is most of the rest of LI as per wunderground. Have a few sprinkles that just started, it's the first precip I've seen so far with this event. I suppose Upton was anticipating an earlier start time in regards to precip. I wasn't expecting anything but some light rain showers from this anyway. Better to be safe then sorry I guess, but that wasn't the case around here with the ice storm until it was too late IMO. WWA canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 WWA canceled. Yup....just saw that. Problem is, I'm not so sure it was needed in the first place (meaning for LI). Only reason I say that is because when something more serious happens, people might not take it seriously. Just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You can really see the front coming through eastern PA on radar now. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like warm air advection (warm front) creeping north and northeastwards, approaching but not quite reaching our area. At 6pm, Toms River up to 48F with wind shift to south, Islip 43 with winds out of se and Westhampton 45 with winds out of ese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like warm air advection (warm front) creeping north and northeastwards, approaching but not quite reaching our area. At 6pm, Toms River up to 48F with wind shift to south, Islip 43 with winds out of se and Westhampton 45 with winds out of ese. The warm front made it, Ive been in the 40s for several hours and still rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Centerport and Bayville still at 33, wow, while Mt. Sinai is at 47. That's a near 15 degree temp difference over a few miles. Kings Park and Greenvale are also at 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 temps steady at 34 degrees here...foggy outside tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Holy **** I didn't even realize it, but i'm up to 45 degrees. Only good thing is maybe it'll melt some of this ice off my driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Holy **** I didn't even realize it, but i'm up to 45 degrees. Only good thing is maybe it'll melt some of this ice off my driveway Did you notice the weird temp patterns? Some parts of the north shore are in the upper 40s and others are in the low 30s lol. Mt Sinai compared to Centerport-- 47 degrees vs 33 lol. Theyre only a few miles apart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Stony Brook DDMET is at 50.... and theyre well northeast of here. Temps rising rapidly; those places that were 47 10 min ago are now 48. Still wondering how places on the north shore of Suffolk are much warmer than here; that must be one funky looking warm front lol. The area from Dix Hills to Greenvale to Shoreham is in the upper 40s to around 50, while everyone around them is in the low to mid 40s, with a cold pocket just to their west still in the low 30s (Centerport, Bayville.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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