Manny Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 .1-.25" for NYC that is all snow on the NAM. This looks more like a mix/rain transitioning to a light back-end accumulation of 1-3" for the city from some models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Their discussion explained it yup just read it , thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 .1-.25" for NYC that is all snow on the NAM. This looks more like a mix/rain transitioning to a light back-end accumulation of 1-3" for the city from some models. Agree with NYC......................Here is my post back on page 33................... "Based on what I'm seeing so far, going with 3-5" here in NW NJ with lesser amounts east and closer to the coast. (1-3" in NYC itself. Potential for 2-4" if it tracks further east. ) Highest potential: 4-6" in NW Surburbs. Subject to change as always." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The NAM is not even close to a remotely good solution for anyone. The warm air intrusion/surge is very pronounced. Don't expect much in the way of frozen for the city except maybe on the back end, but by then the storm will be departing and not much precipitation will remain. I don't expect anything more then 1-3 inches and this would be primarily for favorable elevated/cooler areas of NNJ. Wouldn't be surprised if the city saw little if any white in terms of accumulation. Any snowfall accumulation that does occur in NNJ would primarily be confined to existing snowpack, would expect pavement to remain more wet then white with warm surface temps throughout the region. The setup simply is not favorable, and most models have strong and deep WAA affecting the majority of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS is a sheared out mess for Saturday...main course is the big one next week Edit: non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS has what would be .1-.25" for NYC of rain/mix at the start transitioning to a .1-25" mix of snow/sleet, but not sure if it's all snow at the end. A weak low of 1000 mb right on top of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Different evolutions of the surface cyclone for RGEM/UKMET and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS has what would be .1-.25" for NYC of rain/mix at the start transitioning to a .1-25" mix of snow/sleet, but not sure if it's all snow at the end. A weak low of 1000 mb right on top of the benchmark. Hours 39-45 is almost definitely rain. Anything before and after is a mix except for end which would be a wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS is a sheared out mess for Saturday...main course is the big one next week Edit: non event looks like 3-4 inland, ill take it as a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hours 39-45 is almost definitely rain. Anything before and after is a mix except for end which would be a wet snow. Yeah, at least it's light rain, nothing too big in terms of destroying the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 looks like 3-4 inland, ill take it as a non event Remarkable changes on the GFS....the Tuesday threat that John showed is now the main show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Remarkable changes on the GFS....the Tuesday threat that John showed is now the main show... So, it looks like there are 3 chances for snow in the next 7 days....Saturday, Tuesday and next Thursday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Guys, it might be useful to look at soundings. most areas that may be cold enough for snow do not have sufficient saturation in the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Guys, it might be useful to look at soundings. most areas that may be cold enough for snow do not have sufficient saturation in the snow growth zone. Not to mention the boundary layer will probably just get too warm, the system is simply not dynamic enough to really generate enough cooling for anything major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Guys, it might be useful to look at soundings. most areas that may be cold enough for snow do not have sufficient saturation in the snow growth zone. isnt kfwn close to -12 at snowgrowth with 100% sat ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 isnt kfwn close to -12 at snowgrowth with 100% sat ? Its borderline and if your vertical motion is lower (which it might be since this is not a dynamic system), you may not realize any growth at that temperature level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z NAM and GFS are too far SE. They both have busted badly on ongoing precip. over southern AR, east TX, and southern OK. You can see on radar and water vapor loops that the shortwave entering the southern Plains is hanging back more which will promote more phasing, and keep the surface low stronger and closer to the NJ coast than the GFS and NAM indicate. The 00z ECMWF ensemble (left) and operational (right) have caught these changes well. Notice how much slower the southern Plains system is compared to the ECMWF from 24 hours ago - huge changes for a 1 to 2 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z NAM and GFS are too far SE. They both have busted badly on ongoing precip. over southern AR, east TX, and southern OK. You can see on radar and water vapor loops that the shortwave entering the southern Plains is hanging back more which will promote more phasing, and keep the surface low stronger and closer to the NJ coast than the GFS and NAM indicate. The 00z ECMWF ensemble (left) and operational (right) have caught these changes well. Notice how much slower the southern Plains system is compared to the ECMWF from 24 hours ago - huge changes for a 1 to 2 day forecast. It's pretty terrible how the nam/gfs are handling this system. just look at the 1 run trend with the vort max from 6z gfs to 0z gfs...and now of course the 12z nam is taking more of a hint. this will be mostly rain for the big cities in the end with a close to coast track that should give an area like Albany a 2-4/3-6 type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's pretty terrible how the nam/gfs are handling this system. just look at the 1 run trend with the vort max from 6z gfs to 0z gfs...and now of course the 12z nam is taking more of a hint. this will be mostly rain for the big cities in the end with a close to coast track that should give an area like Albany a 2-4/3-6 type storm Wasn't the nam always showing the low hugging or over the coastal plain? Upton has been calling for a mostly wet event for NYC and their coastal zones for some time with only inland zones having a wwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wasn't the nam always showing the low hugging or over the coastal plain? Upton has been calling for a mostly wet event for NYC and their coastal zones for some time with only inland zones having a wwa. Well even much of northwest NJ I think is rain on this run, or tat least the max qpf is pegged for further north than them now on the 12z nam. besides, I'm talking more in terms of how the model initialization at 00z last night went and how things have unfolded so far. For instance, look at the indianapolis area now...Looking at radar/water vapor , you'd think it was going to snow there later today into tonight..the 12z nam just now gives them 0.1-0.25 qpf and nothing before...Look how theyve handled whats going on across Texas and back to the panhandle. Just poor poor initialization over all 00z euro for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the gfs has a funky looking cbb tomrrow that gets the interior pretty good and the coastal sections look to turn back to frozen and get some on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Like I said last night this is a non-event, those still keeping hope alive need to be realistic. Mainly wet in the city, and maybe elevated more favorable areas of NNJ see 1-3 of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It only has around .25 total QPF now and its above freezing surface and 850 for practically the whole event the gfs has a funky looking cbb tomrrow that gets the interior pretty good and the coastal sections look to turn back to frozen and get some on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Like I said last night this is a non-event, those still keeping hope alive need to be realistic. Mainly wet in the city, and maybe elevated more favorable areas of NNJ see 1-3 of slop. I agree, and I'm usually optimistic considering the year we've been having. Just not a good setup. In fact, it was mentioned earlier that models may actually be showing this storm too far east.... and with not much cold air around.....well, you get the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Like I said last night this is a non-event, those still keeping hope alive need to be realistic. Mainly wet in the city, and maybe elevated more favorable areas of NNJ see 1-3 of slop. is it ok with you if some of us can still track this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 anyway, so back to tracking...... hudson valley should get a decent event. i might take a trip up to catskills for a little powder day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Like I said last night this is a non-event, those still keeping hope alive need to be realistic. Mainly wet in the city, and maybe elevated more favorable areas of NNJ see 1-3 of slop. like i said, 3 days ago. this is a non-event. so whats your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not quite ready to do so just yet....with an exceptionally favorable time of the year climatologically for snow, an ocean as cold as it will get, deep snow cover, and a coastal storm...this region has had accumulations with far less going for it since I moved here 40 years ago. (23 Nassau / 17 Suffolk). If I wasn't such a stand-up guy I'd delete this post, heheh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 still holding out some hope well N&W. This isn't thatfar off from a moderate snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This event has become the middle child that nobody pays attention to haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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