green tube Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at the 18Z RGEM, I wouldn't expect much back end snows with this system. i dont know what he's looking at, but craig allen is emphasizing a switch to snow late saturday, saying, "several inches could accumulate, especially n and w of the city." ...but def thinks the city itself will have accumulating snow. i only mention this because he tends to be reasonably conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at the 18Z RGEM, I wouldn't expect much back end snows with this system. I'm still waiting for the flooding rains the RGEM put out for the ice storm. Unless the storm literally passes over our heads a la 12z EURO we have a good chance at getting some back end precip in the cold sector of the storm. I'm not saying I think everyone will pick up 6in but it could be a 2-5in type situation where people closer to the coast pick up around 2 and N and W closer to 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm still waiting for the flooding rains the RGEM put out for the ice storm. Unless the storm literally passes over our heads a la 12z EURO we have a good chance at getting some back end precip in the cold sector of the storm. I'm not saying I think everyone will pick up 6in but it could be a 2-5in type situation where people closer to the coast pick up around 2 and N and W closer to 5. You did see the urban flood advisories with the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You did see the urban flood advisories with the system? Yeah issued after the precip was over with that storm. No where near basement flooding that I recall being mentioned based on RGEM, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Based on what I'm seeing so far, going with 3-5" here in NW NJ with lesser amounts east and closer to the coast. (1-3" in NYC itself. Potential for 2-4" if it tracks further east. ) Highest potential: 4-6" in NW Surburbs. Subject to change as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 obviously the mt holly one is bs, they have me as 6+ inches and yet sussex is in the watch? I know a watch means nothing but it doesnt make sense at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the 18z gfs is further east....the city is prob frozen preciep until hr 48...only .10+ falls in the city up until that hr.... hr 51 850's crashing...light preciep over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the 18z gfs is further east....the city is prob frozen preciep until hr 48...only .10+ falls in the city up until that hr.... hr 51 850's crashing...light preciep over the area Only thing is that the surface is pretty warm at hour 45, 48 and 51. Probably a wet, sloppy mix thru 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 54 prob is light snow for the metro area.....qpf is .25+ hr 57 light preciep remains....qpf never makes it to ne pa and very light for the lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Only thing is that the surface is pretty warm at hour 45, 48 and 51. Probably a wet, sloppy mix thru 51. yeah its nothing special...just slop.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yeah its nothing special...just slop.... Hour 51-54 precip is probably the only pure snow on this run. Surface is still 33-34 though at hour 54. Doubt that its much more then an inch or 2 of slop. Here's precip from hour 51-54: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 obviously the mt holly one is bs, they have me as 6+ inches and yet sussex is in the watch? I know a watch means nothing but it doesnt make sense at all Obviously Mt. Holly is telling you the greater "Confidence" lies the further N&W you go, hence the Storm Watch.. Upton is basically depicting the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z runs yesterday were crap. gfs showed more snow, weenies jumped on the bandwagon then jumped off at 0z. I look at off hour runs ONLY a day or two leading up a storm, looking out for any trends or such. wait for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z ECMWF, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hour 51-54 precip is probably the only pure snow on this run. Surface is still 33-34 though at hour 54. Doubt that its much more then an inch or 2 of slop. Here's precip from hour 51-54: Nice post...yeah its just a nusiance event.....but i guess better then a driving rain storm....kind of odd to see the 18z gfs this far east....wonder if it was a burp run or on to somthing...nam is nothing like it or the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Obviously Mt. Holly is telling you the greater "Confidence" lies the further N&W you go, hence the Storm Watch.. Upton is basically depicting the same thing. and thats why i think their snowmap is bogus. Im curious to who does that? perhaps just computer generated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z runs shouldn't be taken too seriously. goes for NAM and GFS. they've been very hit and miss all season, I think the 00z runs are far more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z runs shouldn't be taken too seriously. goes for NAM and GFS. they've been very hit and miss all season, I think the 00z runs are far more important. 100% agree. take the 18z runs for what its worth - off hour runs. 00z different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You can pretty much write it off for most of Long Island. Agreed for LI - aside from perhaps a brief period of snow at the beginning and end of the storm. However, for NYC - esp. upper Manhattan and the Bronx - it's going to be a nail biter. The late development of the system suggests rain may predominate, but these types of systems can produce an isothermal snow event if the dynamics are strong enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few hours of ZR on the North Shore of Long Island and northern parts of NYC too, esp. if this system follows the trend of other SW flow events and precip. arrives a few hours before current guidance indicates, by late Fri night. Not quite ready to do so just yet....with an exceptionally favorable time of the year climatologically for snow, an ocean as cold as it will get, deep snow cover, and a coastal storm...this region has had accumulations with far less going for it since I moved here 40 years ago. (23 Nassau / 17 Suffolk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Uptons prelim map has LI and the City with an inch or two while the interior sections of Orange County have up to 6". Seems like a decent combination between the NAM and GFS at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 you know you have a stale cold airmass over the area when the gfs takes a track like that and phl is still primarily rain. Wow do i wish we would of had a favorable pattern for yesterdays and this weekends storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not quite ready to do so just yet....with an exceptionally favorable time of the year climatologically for snow, an ocean as cold as it will get, deep snow cover, and a coastal storm...this region has had accumulations with far less going for it since I moved here 40 years ago. (23 Nassau / 17 Suffolk). Having seen accumulating snow late in March and early in April once every three years or so, I would have to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 you know you have a stale cold airmass over the area when the gfs takes a track like that and phl is still primarily rain. Wow do i wish we would of had a favorable pattern for yesterdays and this weekends storm Tom, I just want to thank you for continuing to post in our threads. I truly value your opinion and all of the information you pass on to us. Your play-by-plays will be forever missed! Please try to post with us as often as possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 obviously the mt holly one is bs, they have me as 6+ inches and yet sussex is in the watch? I know a watch means nothing but it doesnt make sense at all Their discussion explained it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Tom, I just want to thank you for continuing to post in our threads. I truly value your opinion and all of the information you pass on to us. Your play-by-plays will be forever missed! Please try to post with us as often as possible! It is one click away from that subfourm. Not too sure why it is such a big deal. I am not a fan of this move either, but in life, gotta deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 you know you have a stale cold airmass over the area when the gfs takes a track like that and phl is still primarily rain. Wow do i wish we would of had a favorable pattern for yesterdays and this weekends storm To prove your point further, The 21z Srefs appear to have also shifted storm east and like you said, it's still warm and rain for coastal plain and cities: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20110203/21/sref_namer_051_mslp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just looking at hr 36 on the NAM it is seems to be indicating an interesting situation where it possible the northern stream disturbance could out run the southern stream s/w esp if it closes off and slows down like the NAM is depicting. That could help us in terms of cold air. Also the tendency in a Nina yr is to have fast northern stream systems so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 storm is more sheared out this run. 850s are clearing NYC at hr 48 with more precip yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM moved well east and actually has a mix storm thru hour 39 for NYC and then rain hours 42-48. And tries to end as more slop hours 48-54. Good run for NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM moved well east and actually has a mix storm thru hour 39 for NYC and then rain hours 42-48. And tries to end as more slop hours 48-54. Good run for NW of NYC. Yeah it supports mt hollys snowmap for nw jersey..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.