Diego Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 does anyone know where to find the seasonal snowfall records for bdr.. or what it is? and season to date snow?? i can't find it on the upton climate site.. SNOWFALL (inches) 2009 BRIDGEPORT (KBDR) REFERENCE NOTES : WBAN : 94702 published by: NCDC Asheville, NC 6 WBAN : 94702 YEAR JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL 1980-81 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.6 5.4 T 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 1981-82 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 9.0 T 1.6 6.0 0.0 0.0 19.7 1982-83 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 5.1 14.2 T 0.5 0.0 0.0 23.0 1983-84 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.6 11.5 T 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.5 1984-85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.5 11.2 6.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7 1985-86 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.0 11.0 T T 0.0 0.0 17.5 1986-87 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 3.3 11.4 2.9 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.1 1987-88 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.8 15.5 2.1 2.1 T 0.0 0.0 22.9 1988-89 0.0 7.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1989-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 4.1 5.2 9.3 4.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 31.3 1990-91 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 6.3 5.6 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.0 1991-92 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.8 2.4 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.5 1992-93 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.3 9.5 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.9 1993-94 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 17.3 27.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.0 1994-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 1.3 8.0 T T 0.0 0.0 9.3 1995-96 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 13.8 20.5 16.8 10.2 11.8 1996-97 0.0 T 3.8 2.1 3.8 4.0 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 1.0 10.5 5.5 13.5 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2006-07 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.5 6.0 6.7 T 0.0 0.0 13.2 2007-08 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.1 1.2 12.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.2 2008-09 0.0 T 0.0 T 0.5 15.8 13.7 3.4 9.7 T 0.0 0.0 43.1 2009- 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 13.4 POR= 60 YRS T T 0.0 T 0.5 4.6 6.5 6.8 4.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 23.3 PAGE Also, see page 3 of link below for earlier periods. BDR Climo Data.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Highly doubtful. This is pretty much a lost cause. I just hope it doesn't kill my snow pack too much. This is not the range for the euro, it's been poor inside 48-72 hrs as of late anyway. The GFS agrees with my forecast. The NAM is out of its "good range" The GFS has support from the GGEM. The Ukie has been terrible all season. I can't think of a single event its nailed yet. My forecast is a general comprimise. My thinking is a track inside of the BM with a low that gets going a tad too late for most of our area. Maybe....just in time to hit northern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I wouldn't be too quick to write off anything at this point, not the way this year has been going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I wouldn't be too quick to write off anything at this point, not the way this year has been going You can pretty much write it off for most of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Agreed for LI - aside from perhaps a brief period of snow at the beginning and end of the storm. However, for NYC - esp. upper Manhattan and the Bronx - it's going to be a nail biter. The late development of the system suggests rain may predominate, but these types of systems can produce an isothermal snow event if the dynamics are strong enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few hours of ZR on the North Shore of Long Island and northern parts of NYC too, esp. if this system follows the trend of other SW flow events and precip. arrives a few hours before current guidance indicates, by late Fri night. You can pretty much write it off for most of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro showing its warm bias once again.....GFS/GGEM the way to go at this range. Ukie has been all over the place this season, wouldn't put too much faith into its solution. NAM will be in its good range by the 2/4 12z run. The Euro's warm bias has nothing to do with it's surface low track. Also, you can't really argue for a warm bias with such a poor antecedent airmass. There' not much really much going for this system to produce snow in the metro-area. Interior areas or places with elevation could probably score some snow out of this, but if the surface low tracks closer to the coast like some guidance is indicating...the mid level warm air is going to come with it. Such is life without blocking or favorable cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 What do you think about the possibility of ZR, esp. in interior areas N and W of NYC? Winds will be quite light most of Fri night , which should keep things from warming rapidly at the sfc despite warming aloft. The Euro's warm bias has nothing to do with it's surface low track. Also, you can't really argue for a warm bias with such a poor antecedent airmass. There' not much really much going for this system to produce snow in the metro-area. Interior areas or places with elevation could probably score some snow out of this, but if the surface low tracks closer to the coast like some guidance is indicating...the mid level warm air is going to come with it. Such is life without blocking or favorable cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 What do you think about the possibility of ZR, esp. in interior areas N and W of NYC? Winds will be quite light most of Fri night , which should keep things from warming rapidly at the sfc despite warming aloft. I think most areas should be safe given the south/southeast low level flow that develops ahead of the storm. But we'll have to watch the situation carefully. Anywhere north of I-78 should probably keep a close eye on thermal profiles especially boundary layer stuff...because a few degrees colder and you're probably looking at a period of ZR like you suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 with the snow pack we have surface temperature's are going to have a hard rising above freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 with the snow pack we have surface temperature's are going to have a hard rising above freezing... not if the low level flow is out of the south or southeast with any type of vigor. we saw just how easy this was with the last event...some coastal areas with solid snowpack spiked to 50+ anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You can pretty much write it off for most of Long Island. Oh yes...I agree....Didn't mean to sound like I was expecting anything. I'm just a little more cautious these days then I would be in a "typical" year. With that being said, I think the setup for this event doesn't look very good at all. I'm expecting some rain IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 ...A WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. NJZ001-PAZ054-055-041000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0005.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 FWIW, 12Z NAM gave KMMU almost 0.22" FZRA 110205/1200Z 48 16004KT 29.3F SNPL 3:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.01|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 34| 66| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110205/1300Z 49 16005KT 30.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.01 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100 110205/1400Z 50 15004KT 30.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.01 0.01|| 0.02 0| 0|100 110205/1500Z 51 10003KT 31.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.01 0.01|| 0.03 0| 0|100 110205/1600Z 52 07004KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.01 0.02|| 0.05 0| 0|100 110205/1700Z 53 07005KT 31.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.035|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.01 0.04|| 0.08 0| 0|100 110205/1800Z 54 07005KT 31.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.047|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.01 0.05|| 0.13 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110205/1900Z 55 06005KT 32.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.039|| 0.17 0.00|| 0.01 0.04|| 0.17 0| 0|100 110205/2000Z 56 04006KT 31.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.20 0.00|| 0.01 0.02|| 0.20 0| 0|100 110205/2100Z 57 05009KT 31.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.21 0.00|| 0.01 0.01|| 0.21 0| 0|100 110205/2200Z 58 05008KT 32.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.22 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.21 0| 0|100 110205/2300Z 59 06007KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.21 0| 0|100 110206/0000Z 60 06004KT 32.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.25 0.00|| 0.01 0.01|| 0.22 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110206/0100Z 61 26004KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.22 0| 0|100 110206/0200Z 62 26010KT 32.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.28 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.22 0| 0|100 110206/0300Z 63 27015KT 33.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.29 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.22 78| 0| 22 110206/0400Z 64 27016KT 33.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.028|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.22 58| 0| 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I will take it! Sounds like a very marginal event and I suspect elevation will be a big player. Valleys NW NJ 2-4 Ridges 4-7 type deal. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 ...A WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. NJZ001-PAZ054-055-041000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0005.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If the 15 SREF has the right idea (it matches up with my general expectations), we'll see light (5-10 mph) SE winds Fri night shifting to ENE/NE by Sat morning as the low moves up the coast from NE NC to just off the Delmarva. It then curves the low sharply ENE toward Nantucket. The SREF is quite warm aloft, suggesting only areas as far NW as Orange County, NY and far NW NJ would see snow (and only in the last few hours of the storm). However, the SREF suggests a decent possibility of a period of freezing rain for areas N and W of NYC, and perhaps even parts of Manhattan and the Bronx, given the wind directions mentioned above. It never has the 32F line getting any further NW than from about the Passaic/Sussex County NJ line to Putnam County, NY, while the 34F line sits from about Trenton, NJ to Queens to between New Haven and Groton, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 suprised nobody posted the 18z NAM, coming in much stronger and more organized. Total precip through 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 OK I have barely ever asked an IMBY question on here or back on eastern...so I think I am allotted one How does the euro look for Putnam county NY? (55 miles N of NYC, ~25 miles N of HPN ) Rain as well or do we get in on some decent snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 suprised nobody posted the 18z NAM, coming in much stronger and more organized. Total precip through 60 hrs. Problem with that is, it would track right over the area any just about everyone would change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Problem with that is, it would track right over the area any just about everyone would change to rain. 18z NAM much colder/further east than past NAM runs, and the good thing all the appreciable precip with the storm looks to be snow in the CCB. Wherever it is warm enough to rain doesnt look like much precip falls...almost a snow or no type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z NAM looks better organized and 850s crash right after hr 54. surface is just NW of NYC. Maybe a heavy wet snow. Have not seen the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I hope Mt. Holly is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I have a hard time believing we get more rain than snow out of this...We might see snow and sleet...Maybe some freezing drizzle with a ne wind and a huge snow pack...If a coastal front develops we should be on the cold side of it...That's if the storm tracks to our south and east as forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 craig allen just said he likes some back end accumulating snow for the city with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z NAM much colder/further east than past NAM runs, and the good thing all the appreciable precip with the storm looks to be snow in the CCB. Wherever it is warm enough to rain doesnt look like much precip falls...almost a snow or no type deal. You are right sir....I didn't even look at it, I just heard more wound up and I figured further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at the 18Z RGEM, I wouldn't expect much back end snows with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 some NAM data has also been indicating FZRA potential for some areas, like interior W CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at the 18Z RGEM, I wouldn't expect much back end snows with this system. But that's only if the RGEM is absolutely right. With the way you worded your post, you are telling us you are disregarding all other models but the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 But that's only if the RGEM is absolutely right. With the way you worded your post, you are telling us you are disregarding all other models but the RGEM. didn't the RGEM blast warm air into NJ/NY/CT with this past storm, when most areas verified with mostly ZR? also, re: 18z NAM - the 18z runs have been notorious for spitting out weird solutions. not that this one is weird, but it's probably a hiccup in one way or another. 00z runs will be important to see if they waffle more, OR keep trending a certain way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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